2018 Sea Otter SILVER

HostMonterey Peninsula Yacht Club
Date10/13/2018
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#		School	Team	A	B	TOT
1		Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	49	24	73
2		St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	37	61	98
3		The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	45	64	109
4		The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	64	51	115
5		Marin Academy	Wildcats	36	83	119
6		Ernest J. McBride	Wolfpack	95	34	129
7		The Urban School	Blues	70	62	132
8		Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	103	48	151
9		Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	97	63	160
10		Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	60	114	174
11		Acalanes High School	Dons	101	89	190
12		Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	67	127	194
13		Archie Williams High School	Pirates	101	133	234
14		College Park High School	Falcons	97	142	239
15		Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	161	107	268
16		Santa Monica High School	Vikings	143 MRP	127 MRP	270 MRP
17		Stevenson School	Pirates	141	131	272
18	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	129	149	278
19		Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	137	161	298
20		San Francisco University High School	San Francisco	161	139	300
21		Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	134	176	310
22		Carmel High School	Padres	149	168	317
23		Torrey Pines High School	Falcons	184	148	332
24		Head-Royce School	Jayhawks	178	162	340
25		Encinal High School	Jets	200	150	350
26		Los Gatos High School	Varsity	189	170	359
27		The Athenian School	Owls	153	209	362
28		Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	153	221	374
29		Monterey High School	Toreadores	213	164	377

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
	Marin Academy	Wildcats	6	8	1	1	14	1	3	2	36	Jack Mcdonnell '21 Elise Lamarre '19
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	2	3	9	4	5	4	1	9	37	William Bayliss '20 [1-8] Will Devine '22 [1-6] Beckett Shinn '25 [7-8]
	The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	5	1	10	9	3	5	BKD	BKD	45	Alexander Kasolas '22 Amelia Nugent '21
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	7	4	2	7	11	6	BKD	BKD	49	Dutch Dietrick '20 Sophia Mulvania '22
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	11	7	7	2	8	9	2	14	60	Jemma Schroder '20 [1-8] Matthew Morley '20 [1-2, 5-6] John Loren Chapman '22 [3-4, 7-8]
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	23	2	3	6	4	16	7	3	64	Fredrick Baldauf '20 [1-8] Charlotte Navin '20 [1-6] Colette Lee '21 [7-8]
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	1	10	4	16	9	11	6	10	67	George Soliman '20 [1-8] Ian Thompsen '22 [1-2, 7-8] Aidan O'Donnell '22 [3-6]
	The Urban School	Blues	15	13	5	8	7	17	4	1	70	Eli Gordon '20 [1-8] Anna Krylova '20 [1-2] Tristan Bellevin '21 [3-6] Dinah Luomanen '21 [7-8]
	Ernest J. McBride	Wolfpack	4	11	19	5	13	15	10	18	95	Maximilian Rosenblad '19 Chase White '19
	College Park High School	Falcons	20	5	14	19	2	14	18	5	97	Nate Holden '21 [1-8] Brooks Knuckles '23 [1-6] Josh Botting '23 [7-8]
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	22	9	8	3	17	2	16	20	97	Emma Figueredo '19 Francis Tarpey-Shwed '19
	Acalanes High School	Dons	10	16	11	12	22	7	11	12	101	Sophia Browne '20 Lia Reilly '21
	Archie Williams High School	Pirates	12	17	6	10	23	21	8	4	101	Elsa Simenstad '22 [1-2, 5-6] Cole Williams '20 [3-4, 7-8] Ian Mendius '22 [1-2, 5-6] Grace Glass '19 [3-4, 7-8]
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	26	6	24	18	10	8	5	6	103	Ben Covington '19 Olivia Mohun '19
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	9	26	22	13	6	12	25	16	129	Nikhil Stewart '21 Elissa Martinez '19
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	8	20	17	17	15	19	19	19	134	Michael Mcculloch '21 Zach Morley '21
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	13	19	12	15	26	27	17	8	137	Joshua Holzer '20 Aquinnah Todd '21
	Stevenson School	Pirates	3	18	15	23	27	24	14	17	141	Taylor Lee '19 [1-8] Betty Ng '20 [1-2, 7-8] Ryan Marquess '22 [3-6]
	Santa Monica High School	Vikings	24	14	21	14	12	10	21	7	143 MRP	No Show No Show
	Carmel High School	Padres	21	22	18	21	21	13	20	13	149	Gabriel Gargiulo '21 [1-8] Dante Fiala '22 [1-2, 5-8] Alex Faxon '21 [3-4]
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	16	12	20	11	29	25	15	25	153	Josh Goldberg '21 [1-8] Darius Mahamedi '22 [1-2, 5-6] Uthman Alaoui '19 [3-4, 7-8]
	The Athenian School	Owls	18	23	16	24	16	22	13	21	153	Alisa Chernikova '19 Suzie Myles '21
	San Francisco University High School	San Francisco	17	15	25	28	18	20	23	15	161	Anson Walker '21 [1-8] Janavi Padala '21 [1-2] Charlie Sears '22 [3-8]
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	19	21	DSQ	26	19	23	12	11	161	Lucien Canvinet '20 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Mannik '21 [3-4, 7-8] Rosie Ward '19 [1-2, 5-6] Millay Metz '22 [3-4, 7-8]
	Head-Royce School	Jayhawks	14	24	13	22	24	26	28	27	178	Pierce Yeary '20 [1-6] Eloise Henry '20 [7-8] Ellery Island '20 [1-6] Josephine Kovecses '21 [7-8]
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons	RAF	RAF	RAF	RAF	1	3	DNS	DNS	184	Arda Ulug '19 Rita Moturi '20
	Los Gatos High School	Varsity	27	28	23	20	20	18	27	26	189	Dana Yong '25 Alex David '20
	Encinal High School	Jets	25	27	26	25	25	28	22	22	200	Jack Obot '23 Jonathan Amaden '23
	Monterey High School	Toreadores	28	25	27	27	28	29	26	23	213	Jimmy Fields '23 [1-8] Jimmy Fields '23 [1-2, 5-8] Monty Ratzliff '22 [3-4]

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	9	1	2	1	2	2	6	1	24	Maxwell Kleha '21 Sophia Burton '20
	Ernest J. McBride	Wolfpack	1	5	1	4	3	12	5	3	34	Tristan Feves '22 Kayla Maguire '21
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	8	21	3	3	4	4	3	2	48	Miles Raneri '21 [1-2] Sebastian Green '22 [3-8] Nadia Gibbons '21 [1-4, 7-8] Miles Raneri '21 [5-6]
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	13	10	8	10	1	3	1	5	51	Alex Pick '19 [1-2, 5-8] Luke Froeb '21 [3-4] Colette Lee '21 [1-2] Leo Sabhorwal '20 [3-8]
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	3	2	6	18	11	13	4	4	61	Evelyn Plam '19 Carolyne Ikeda '19
	The Urban School	Blues	2	4	11	7	7	14	11	6	62	J.P. Murphy '21 [1-8] Dinah Luomanen '21 [1-4] Anna Krylova '20 [5-8]
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	5	3	13	9	8	10	7	8	63	Griffin Chen '19 Kendall Scanlan '21
	The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	10	8	4	5	5	19	2	11	64	Julien Prefot '22 Alexander Kasolas '22
	Marin Academy	Wildcats	12	9	5	12	18	7	BKD	BKD	83	Beck Lorsch '21 Preston Downs '22
	Acalanes High School	Dons	16	12	12	2	15	1	14	17	89	Chase Englehart '22 [1-4, 7-8] Ben Foox '23 [5-6] Lola Rao '20 [1-2, 5-8] Ben Foox '23 [3-4]
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	7	6	17	11	6	23	17	20	107	Caton Woll '20 [1-8] Althea White '21 [1-2, 5-6] Anjolie Enz '21 [3-4, 7-8]
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	6	13	21	20	13	11	16	14	114	Timmy Gee '20 [1-8] Tatem Gee '23 [1-2, 5-6] Nico Chapman '22 [3-4, 7-8]
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	4	24	9	25	29	9	9	18	127	Kyle Vaughn '19 Sydney Baker '22
	Santa Monica High School	Vikings	26	11	14	14	16	8	8	10	127 MRP	No Show No Show
	Stevenson School	Pirates	18	16	25	6	23	5	15	23	131	Gage Bradford '20 [1-6] Ryan Marquess '22 [7-8] Catharine Li '21 [1-6] John Puka '22 [7-8]
	Archie Williams High School	Pirates	23	18	15	28	24	6	12	7	133	Ian Mendius '22 [1-8] Olivia Nardel '21 [1-2, 5-6] Will Burkhart '20 [3-4, 7-8]
	San Francisco University High School	San Francisco	14	7	18	16	21	20	21	22	139	James Iskander '22 [1-8] Charlie Sears '22 [1-2] Janavi Padala '21 [3-8]
	College Park High School	Falcons	11	DNS	10	13	17	18	24	19	142	Jack Holden '22 [1-8] Jake Botting '21 [1-4] Chase Latson '19 [5-8]
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons	21	19	7	8	22	28	22	21	148	Bryson Dort '19 Katherine Shofran '19
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	15	14	16	17	27	29	19	12	149	Troy Davidson '20 Diego Lockyer '21
	Encinal High School	Jets	DNF	15	BKD	BKD	10	22	20	15	150	Max-Emilien Kluiwstra-Descalle '21 Meade Jacobsen '20
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	19	DNS	DSQ	19	19	21	10	13	161	Nickolas Monrique '19 [1-2, 5-6] Alyssa Barkus '21 [3-4, 7-8] Ceci Meade '20 [1-2, 5-6] Nickolas Monrique '19 [3-4, 7-8]
	Head-Royce School	Jayhawks	25	25	20	23	14	15	BKD	BKD	162	Leslie Kwok '22 [1-8] Camille Dawson '23 [1-4] Parker Mergelkamp '21 [5-8]
	Monterey High School	Toreadores	24	23	19	15	12	17	27	27	164	Lucas Kaemmerer '20 Luc Dupreez '22
	Carmel High School	Padres	20	17	24	24	9	24	26	24	168	Lily Robnett '21 Zoe Gleason '21
	Los Gatos High School	Varsity	17	20	22	22	25	16	23	25	170	Dawson Xuan '22 Nicholas David '22
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	22	22	23	21	28	26	18	16	176	Teddy Knobel '21 [1-8] Owen Chapman '22 [1-2, 5-6] Ryan Ting '21 [3-4, 7-8]
	The Athenian School	Owls	DNS	DNS	26	27	20	25	25	26	209	Annie Chan '21 Julieanna Fajardo '20
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	BKD	26	DSQ	26	26	27	29	DSQ	221	Griffin Conley '21 [1-2, 5-6] Charlie Gates '22 [3-4, 7-8] David Jelniker '21 [1-2, 5-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
	Acalanes High School Dons	31	31	33	33	35	35	37	37
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	33	33	35	35	37	37	39	39
	Carmel High School Padres	34	34	36	36	38	38	40	40
	College Park High School Falcons	35	35	37	37	39	39	41	41
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	36	36	38	38	40	40	42	42
	Design Tech High School d.tech 1	37	37	39	39	41	41	43	43
	Design Tech High School d.tech 2	38	38	40	40	42	42	44	44
	Design Tech High School d.tech 3	39	39	41	41	43	43	45	45
	Encinal High School Jets	40	40	42	42	44	44	46	46
	Ernest J. McBride Wolfpack	41	41	43	43	45	45	47	47
	Head-Royce School Jayhawks	42	42	44	44	46	46	48	48
	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	43	43	45	45	47	47	49	49
	Los Gatos High School Varsity	45	45	47	47	49	49	52	52
	Marin Academy Wildcats	46	46	48	48	51	51	53	53
	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	47	47	49	49	52	52	54	54
	Monterey High School Toreadores	48	48	51	51	53	53	55	55
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	49	49	52	52	54	54	56	56
	San Francisco University High School San Francisco	51	51	53	53	55	55	57	57
	Santa Monica High School Vikings	52	52	54	54	56	56	58	58
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon	44	44	46	46	48	48	51	51
	Archie Williams High School Pirates	53	53	55	55	57	57	59	59
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats	54	54	56	56	58	58	60	60
	Stevenson School Pirates	55	55	57	57	59	59	31	31
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	56	56	58	58	60	60	32	32
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	57	57	59	59	31	31	33	33
	The Athenian School Owls	32	32	34	34	36	36	38	38
	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	58	58	60	60	32	32	34	34
	The Urban School Blues	59	59	31	31	33	33	35	35
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons	60	60	32	32	34	34	36	36

Division B

	Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
	Acalanes High School Dons	32	32	34	34	36	36	38	38
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	34	34	36	36	38	38	40	40
	Carmel High School Padres	35	35	37	37	39	39	41	41
	College Park High School Falcons	36	36	38	38	40	40	42	42
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	37	37	39	39	41	41	43	43
	Design Tech High School d.tech 1	38	38	40	40	42	42	44	44
	Design Tech High School d.tech 2	39	39	41	41	43	43	45	45
	Design Tech High School d.tech 3	40	40	42	42	44	44	46	46
	Encinal High School Jets	41	41	43	43	45	45	47	47
	Ernest J. McBride Wolfpack	42	42	44	44	46	46	48	48
	Head-Royce School Jayhawks	43	43	45	45	47	47	49	49
	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	44	44	46	46	48	48	51	51
	Los Gatos High School Varsity	46	46	48	48	51	51	53	53
	Marin Academy Wildcats	47	47	49	49	52	52	54	54
	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	48	48	51	51	53	53	55	55
	Monterey High School Toreadores	49	49	52	52	54	54	56	56
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	51	51	53	53	55	55	57	57
	San Francisco University High School San Francisco	52	52	54	54	56	56	58	58
	Santa Monica High School Vikings	53	53	55	55	57	57	59	59
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon	45	45	47	47	49	49	52	52
	Archie Williams High School Pirates	54	54	56	56	58	58	60	60
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats	55	55	57	57	59	59	31	31
	Stevenson School Pirates	56	56	58	58	60	60	32	32
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	57	57	59	59	31	31	33	33
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	58	58	60	60	32	32	34	34
	The Athenian School Owls	33	33	35	35	37	37	39	39
	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	59	59	31	31	33	33	35	35
	The Urban School Blues	60	60	32	32	34	34	36	36
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons	31	31	33	33	35	35	37	37

	School / Team	Skipper	Crew
	Acalanes High School	Sophia Browne '20	Lia Reilly '21
	Dons	Chase Englehart '22 [1-4, 7-8] Ben Foox '23 [5-6]	Lola Rao '20 [1-2, 5-8] Ben Foox '23 [3-4]
	Archie Williams High School	Elsa Simenstad '22 [1-2, 5-6] Cole Williams '20 [3-4, 7-8]	Ian Mendius '22 [1-2, 5-6] Grace Glass '19 [3-4, 7-8]
	Pirates	Ian Mendius '22 [1-8]	Olivia Nardel '21 [1-2, 5-6] Will Burkhart '20 [3-4, 7-8]
	Berkeley High School	Lucien Canvinet '20 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Mannik '21 [3-4, 7-8]	Rosie Ward '19 [1-2, 5-6] Millay Metz '22 [3-4, 7-8]
	Yellowjackets	Caton Woll '20 [1-8]	Althea White '21 [1-2, 5-6] Anjolie Enz '21 [3-4, 7-8]
	Carmel High School	Gabriel Gargiulo '21 [1-8]	Dante Fiala '22 [1-2, 5-8] Alex Faxon '21 [3-4]
	Padres	Lily Robnett '21	Zoe Gleason '21
	College Park High School	Nate Holden '21 [1-8]	Brooks Knuckles '23 [1-6] Josh Botting '23 [7-8]
	Falcons	Jack Holden '22 [1-8]	Jake Botting '21 [1-4] Chase Latson '19 [5-8]
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Ben Covington '19	Olivia Mohun '19
	Cubs	Miles Raneri '21 [1-2] Sebastian Green '22 [3-8]	Nadia Gibbons '21 [1-4, 7-8] Miles Raneri '21 [5-6]
	Design Tech High School	Jemma Schroder '20 [1-8]	Matthew Morley '20 [1-2, 5-6] John Loren Chapman '22 [3-4, 7-8]
	d.tech 1	Timmy Gee '20 [1-8]	Tatem Gee '23 [1-2, 5-6] Nico Chapman '22 [3-4, 7-8]
	Design Tech High School	Michael Mcculloch '21	Zach Morley '21
	d.tech 2	Teddy Knobel '21 [1-8]	Owen Chapman '22 [1-2, 5-6] Ryan Ting '21 [3-4, 7-8]
	Design Tech High School	Josh Goldberg '21 [1-8]	Darius Mahamedi '22 [1-2, 5-6] Uthman Alaoui '19 [3-4, 7-8]
	d.tech 3	Griffin Conley '21 [1-2, 5-6] Charlie Gates '22 [3-4, 7-8]	David Jelniker '21 [1-2, 5-6]
	Encinal High School	Jack Obot '23	Jonathan Amaden '23
	Jets	Max-Emilien Kluiwstra-Descalle '21	Meade Jacobsen '20
	Ernest J. McBride	Maximilian Rosenblad '19	Chase White '19
	Wolfpack	Tristan Feves '22	Kayla Maguire '21
	Head-Royce School	Pierce Yeary '20 [1-6] Eloise Henry '20 [7-8]	Ellery Island '20 [1-6] Josephine Kovecses '21 [7-8]
	Jayhawks	Leslie Kwok '22 [1-8]	Camille Dawson '23 [1-4] Parker Mergelkamp '21 [5-8]
	Los Gatos High School	Dana Yong '25	Alex David '20
	Varsity	Dawson Xuan '22	Nicholas David '22
	Marin Academy	Jack Mcdonnell '21	Elise Lamarre '19
	Wildcats	Beck Lorsch '21	Preston Downs '22
	Mater Dei High School	Dutch Dietrick '20	Sophia Mulvania '22
	Monarchs	Maxwell Kleha '21	Sophia Burton '20
	Monterey High School	Jimmy Fields '23 [1-8]	Jimmy Fields '23 [1-2, 5-8] Monty Ratzliff '22 [3-4]
	Toreadores	Lucas Kaemmerer '20	Luc Dupreez '22
	Palos Verdes High School	George Soliman '20 [1-8]	Ian Thompsen '22 [1-2, 7-8] Aidan O'Donnell '22 [3-6]
	Sea Kings	Kyle Vaughn '19	Sydney Baker '22
	San Francisco University High School	Anson Walker '21 [1-8]	Janavi Padala '21 [1-2] Charlie Sears '22 [3-8]
	San Francisco	James Iskander '22 [1-8]	Charlie Sears '22 [1-2] Janavi Padala '21 [3-8]
	Santa Monica High School	No Show	No Show
	Vikings	No Show	No Show
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Nikhil Stewart '21	Elissa Martinez '19
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Ryūj Dragon	Troy Davidson '20	Diego Lockyer '21
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	William Bayliss '20 [1-8]	Will Devine '22 [1-6] Beckett Shinn '25 [7-8]
	Wildcats	Evelyn Plam '19	Carolyne Ikeda '19
	Stevenson School	Taylor Lee '19 [1-8]	Betty Ng '20 [1-2, 7-8] Ryan Marquess '22 [3-6]
	Pirates	Gage Bradford '20 [1-6] Ryan Marquess '22 [7-8]	Catharine Li '21 [1-6] John Puka '22 [7-8]
	Tamalpais High School	Emma Figueredo '19	Francis Tarpey-Shwed '19
	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Griffin Chen '19	Kendall Scanlan '21
	Tamalpais High School	Joshua Holzer '20	Aquinnah Todd '21
	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Nickolas Monrique '19 [1-2, 5-6] Alyssa Barkus '21 [3-4, 7-8]	Ceci Meade '20 [1-2, 5-6] Nickolas Monrique '19 [3-4, 7-8]
	The Athenian School	Alisa Chernikova '19	Suzie Myles '21
	Owls	Annie Chan '21	Julieanna Fajardo '20
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Fredrick Baldauf '20 [1-8]	Charlotte Navin '20 [1-6] Colette Lee '21 [7-8]
	Breakers	Alex Pick '19 [1-2, 5-8] Luke Froeb '21 [3-4]	Colette Lee '21 [1-2] Leo Sabhorwal '20 [3-8]
	The International School of San Francisco	Alexander Kasolas '22	Amelia Nugent '21
	Jaguars	Julien Prefot '22	Alexander Kasolas '22
	The Urban School	Eli Gordon '20 [1-8]	Anna Krylova '20 [1-2] Tristan Bellevin '21 [3-6] Dinah Luomanen '21 [7-8]
	Blues	J.P. Murphy '21 [1-8]	Dinah Luomanen '21 [1-4] Anna Krylova '20 [5-8]
	Torrey Pines High School	Arda Ulug '19	Rita Moturi '20
	Falcons	Bryson Dort '19	Katherine Shofran '19

Conditions — 10/13/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 77% · Pressure 1011.1 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 67°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.7 kn

avg · max 8.8 kn

Gusts to 20.8 kn

From WSW (244°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1011.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn · W 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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