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MISSA Cressy Qualifier (Radial)

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Spencer Barnes '20 44
2 Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Peter Barnard '23 103
3 Novi Novi Michael Kirkman '21 118
4 Highland Park High School - IL Highland Park High School - IL Lawson Levine '20 130
5 Orono High School Orono High School Seamus Hendrickson '21 130
6 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Owen Bannasch '22 148
7 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Henry Scholz '23 152
8 Black River Public School Black River Public School Eden Nykamp '21 168
9 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Hank Seum '23 168
10 Orono High School Orono High School Kytalin Hendrickson '22 176
11 St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Will Carroll '21 188
12 Orono High School Orono High School Rachel Bartel '20 200
13 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Matthew Elliott '20 202
14 Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Emma Friedauer '22 220
15 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Christina Thomas '21 225
16 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jacob Zils '23 230
17 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 235
18 Southwest High School Southwest High School Calvin Lamosse '21 276
19 Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Elizabeth Gildea '20 276
20 New Trier HS New Trier HS Aidan Lane '20 286
21 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Max Sigel '22 289
22 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Leo Kumar '23 318
23 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Cole Barre '21 345
24 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Hazel Mcgovern '21 353
25 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Santiago Echevarria '22 357
26 Orono High School Orono High School Tyra Pranger '21 360
27 Troy High School Troy High School Emily Pytell '21 360
28 Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Matthew Sexton '24 374
29 Farmington High School Farmington High School Samuel Monique '21 375
30 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jack Callinan '23 385
31 Providence Academy Providence Academy Connor Shore '22 395
32 Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Stephanie Hwodeky '23 399
33 Novi Novi Conner Kirkman '23 409
34 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Tryg Van Wyk '22 417
35 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Marley Barrett '23 419
36 Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Bill Lazzaro '22 473
37 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Marissa Tegeder '21 477
38 Southwest High School Southwest High School Gints Pelecis '21 503
39 Orono High School Orono High School Sam Rosenbaum '22 511
40 Orono High School Orono High School Mei Vickery '21 517
41 Orono High School Orono High School Louise Rosenbaum '20 534
42 Edina High School Edina High School Virginia Higgins '22 552
43 Orono High School Orono High School Jack (Henry) Strommen '21 552
44 Southwest High School Southwest High School Sam Fider '22 582
45 Orono High School Orono High School Hunter Wheaton '23 591
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Spencer Barnes '20 1 1 10 3 1 2 1 12 1 4 2 1 3 2 44
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Peter Barnard '23 3 16 4 1 12 16 12 6 9 1 1 11 8 3 103
Novi Novi Michael Kirkman '21 10 4 8 16 3 1 7 10 4 22 6 14 5 8 118
Highland Park High School - IL Highland Park High School - IL Lawson Levine '20 5 DSQ 1 12 6 5 3 4 12 5 4 2 12 13 130
Orono High School Orono High School Seamus Hendrickson '21 12 10 5 2 8 9 4 7 2 19 17 27 7 1 130
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Owen Bannasch '22 25 6 11 19 4 8 18 25 7 7 7 5 1 5 148
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Henry Scholz '23 4 9 14 13 15 17 2 1 5 18 14 7 6 27 152
Black River Public School Black River Public School Eden Nykamp '21 8 2 12 7 22 15 13 17 15 6 19 26 2 4 168
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Hank Seum '23 15 11 2 5 30 13 10 21 10 3 5 13 16 14 168
Orono High School Orono High School Kytalin Hendrickson '22 7 3 18 4 27 4 14 5 13 13 12 12 20 24 176
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Will Carroll '21 16 7 20 10 17 19 5 8 16 17 9 3 26 15 188
Orono High School Orono High School Rachel Bartel '20 17 42 15 11 7 12 16 15 18 2 10 20 9 6 200
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Matthew Elliott '20 9 21 16 17 23 7 17 3 14 8 11 6 25 25 202
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Emma Friedauer '22 24 13 6 20 5 10 19 24 19 26 3 16 24 11 220
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Christina Thomas '21 11 15 27 9 2 20 22 11 6 33 26 17 19 7 225
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jacob Zils '23 23 17 21 15 10 25 25 31 3 10 18 9 13 10 230
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 2 8 7 6 OCS 3 27 2 27 34 13 10 4 DSQ 235
Southwest High School Southwest High School Calvin Lamosse '21 18 22 17 23 9 18 24 9 31 20 20 8 39 18 276
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Elizabeth Gildea '20 20 19 25 21 11 21 9 13 11 25 24 22 32 23 276
New Trier HS New Trier HS Aidan Lane '20 14 14 3 24 26 6 21 19 26 37 25 21 28 22 286
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Max Sigel '22 6 12 36 18 13 14 28 16 8 39 8 18 27 DNF 289
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Leo Kumar '23 19 30 28 30 31 23 11 14 24 9 27 23 33 16 318
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Cole Barre '21 21 35 23 OCS 33 27 15 28 17 12 16 4 35 33 345
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Hazel Mcgovern '21 27 20 31 26 20 11 30 18 28 21 31 28 36 26 353
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Santiago Echevarria '22 28 5 33 8 19 36 26 32 30 16 39 30 34 21 357
Orono High School Orono High School Tyra Pranger '21 34 27 22 36 25 22 23 29 33 14 29 25 10 31 360
Troy High School Troy High School Emily Pytell '21 39 33 19 28 21 24 20 39 RAF 11 23 37 11 9 360
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Matthew Sexton '24 26 34 29 14 16 28 33 33 22 27 32 38 30 12 374
Farmington High School Farmington High School Samuel Monique '21 45 36 13 34 35 32 29 27 25 15 22 19 14 29 375
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jack Callinan '23 22 18 40 31 28 26 6 22 32 31 30 41 38 20 385
Providence Academy Providence Academy Connor Shore '22 36 23 9 41 24 30 8 38 29 32 38 33 22 32 395
Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Stephanie Hwodeky '23 30 25 35 27 14 29 35 26 34 23 28 34 29 30 399
Novi Novi Conner Kirkman '23 38 40 32 40 18 31 34 34 20 38 15 24 17 28 409
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Tryg Van Wyk '22 32 28 34 22 34 DNF 32 20 43 44 21 29 15 17 417
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Marley Barrett '23 31 26 37 35 32 35 36 23 21 24 37 32 31 19 419
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Bill Lazzaro '22 33 29 38 25 38 39 OCS DNF 23 42 35 15 18 DNF 473
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Marissa Tegeder '21 37 24 30 33 40 34 40 30 35 35 42 42 21 34 477
Southwest High School Southwest High School Gints Pelecis '21 29 41 39 39 39 37 38 37 38 36 36 36 23 35 503
Orono High School Orono High School Sam Rosenbaum '22 13 31 26 29 36 33 31 36 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 511
Orono High School Orono High School Mei Vickery '21 35 32 41 37 29 38 41 40 40 30 33 43 40 38 517
Orono High School Orono High School Louise Rosenbaum '20 40 37 24 32 43 41 DNF 35 36 40 34 44 43 39 534
Edina High School Edina High School Virginia Higgins '22 41 38 42 42 41 43 39 DNF 41 28 43 35 37 36 552
Orono High School Orono High School Jack (Henry) Strommen '21 42 39 44 38 37 40 37 41 37 41 41 31 44 40 552
Southwest High School Southwest High School Sam Fider '22 43 43 45 43 44 42 DNF 42 42 29 40 40 42 41 582
Orono High School Orono High School Hunter Wheaton '23 44 DNF 43 44 42 44 42 43 39 43 44 39 41 37 591

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  45 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Spencer Barnes '20St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 214/142.534.97+2.4492nd → 99th19.1<1%3.1 / 14.2
2Peter Barnard '23Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL14/143.363.40+0.0399th → 99th0.024%7.4 / 9.8
3Michael Kirkman '21Novi Varsity 114/142.793.18+0.3996th → 99th0.820%8.4 / 13.1
4Lawson Levine '20Highland Park High School - IL14/142.113.69+1.5784th → 99th9.44%9.3 / 16.8
4Seamus Hendrickson '21Orono High School Spartans 314/142.222.97+0.7687th → 98th2.812%9.3 / 16.2
6Owen Bannasch '22Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI14/141.062.74+1.6860th → 95th11.6<1%10.6 / 23.6
7Henry Scholz '23Lake Forest High School Scouts 114/142.362.68+0.3189th → 95th0.518%10.9 / 15.1
8Eden Nykamp '21Black River Public School14/141.912.56+0.6582nd → 92nd2.210%12.0 / 18.0
8Hank Seum '23Mounds Park Academy14/141.472.53+1.0672nd → 92nd5.27%12.0 / 20.9
10Kytalin Hendrickson '22Orono High School Spartans 414/141.702.44+0.7578th → 91st2.813%12.6 / 19.5
11Will Carroll '21St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 114/141.972.41+0.4483rd → 91st1.024%13.4 / 17.8
12Rachel Bartel '20Orono High School Spartans 714/141.971.84−0.1383rd → 81st0.130%14.3 / 18.0
13Matthew Elliott '20West Bloomfield High School14/141.162.25+1.0963rd → 87th5.54%14.4 / 22.8
14Emma Friedauer '22Olentangy Liberty High School14/141.132.10+0.9761st → 84th4.613%15.7 / 23.1
15Christina Thomas '21Grosse Pointe South High School14/141.361.99+0.6368th → 83rd2.119%16.1 / 21.5
16Jacob Zils '23Minnetonka High School Skippers 414/142.301.94−0.3688th → 82nd0.956%16.4 / 15.9
17Owen Harrod '22Mahtomedi Zephyrs 214/141.732.28+0.5479th → 88th1.333%16.8 / 19.1
18Calvin Lamosse '21Southwest High School Lakers 214/141.451.49+0.0471st → 73rd0.044%19.7 / 20.9
18Elizabeth Gildea '20Brother Rice High School - IL14/140.391.71+1.3234th → 78th7.95%19.7 / 27.9
20Aidan Lane '20New Trier HS14/140.701.50+0.8045th → 73rd3.220%20.4 / 25.9
21Max Sigel '22Minnetonka High School Skippers 214/141.511.51−0.0173rd → 73rd0.052%20.6 / 20.6
22Leo Kumar '23Lake Forest High School Scouts 214/140.901.31+0.4154th → 67th0.940%22.7 / 24.4
23Cole Barre '21Mahtomedi Zephyrs 114/141.391.12−0.2769th → 61st0.472%24.6 / 21.1
24Hazel Mcgovern '21East Grand Rapids14/141.031.10+0.0759th → 61st0.059%25.2 / 23.8
25Santiago Echevarria '22Loyola Academy14/140.870.87+0.0053rd → 53rd0.056%25.5 / 24.5
26Emily Pytell '21Troy High School14/140.820.91+0.0851st → 54th0.055%25.7 / 24.9
26Tyra Pranger '21Orono High School Spartans 914/140.730.98+0.2547th → 57th0.451%25.7 / 25.5
28Matthew Sexton '24Lake Forest Academy14/141.480.86−0.6172nd → 52nd2.788%26.7 / 20.8
29Samuel Monique '21Farmington High School14/140.350.51+0.1632nd → 38th0.142%26.8 / 28.0
30Jack Callinan '23Minnetonka High School Skippers 314/140.950.65−0.3056th → 44th0.669%27.5 / 24.1
31Connor Shore '22Providence Academy14/140.460.53+0.0835th → 39th0.055%28.2 / 27.2
32Stephanie Hwodeky '23Saint Joseph Academy (OH)14/140.820.78−0.0451st → 49th0.070%28.5 / 25.0
33Conner Kirkman '23Novi Varsity 214/141.170.49−0.6864th → 38th3.385%29.2 / 22.6
34Tryg Van Wyk '22Minnetonka High School Skippers 114/140.640.08−0.5644th → 24th1.571%29.8 / 26.0
35Marley Barrett '23Minnetonka High School Skippers 514/141.010.58−0.4358th → 41st1.282%29.9 / 24.0
36Bill Lazzaro '22Rocky River High School14/14-0.060.34+0.3920th → 32nd0.768%33.8 / 30.6
37Marissa Tegeder '21Kettle Moraine High School14/140.75-0.07−0.8248th → 20th4.991%34.1 / 25.4
38Gints Pelecis '21Southwest High School Lakers 314/140.31-0.06−0.3731st → 20th0.990%35.9 / 28.2
39Sam Rosenbaum '22Orono High School Spartans 114/140.560.63+0.0741st → 43rd0.095%36.5 / 26.5
40Mei Vickery '21Orono High School Spartans 814/140.40-0.38−0.7834th → 13th4.294%36.9 / 27.6
41Louise Rosenbaum '20Orono High School Spartans 214/14-0.09-0.60−0.5119th → 9th1.491%38.1 / 30.5
42Jack (Henry) Strommen '21Orono High School Spartans 514/140.59u-0.85−1.4442nd → 6th15.599%39.4 / 26.7
42Virginia Higgins '22Edina High School14/140.10-0.70−0.8024th → 8th4.096%39.4 / 29.4
44Sam Fider '22Southwest High School Lakers 114/14-0.32-1.54−1.2115th → 1st7.498%41.6 / 31.9
45Hunter Wheaton '23Orono High School Spartans 614/14-1.10-1.65−0.563rd → 1st1.295%42.2 / 35.7

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From SSE (162°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1021.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →