Navigate

NYISA-NW Buffalo Friday Night Races

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 3 2 5
2 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 5 6 11
3 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 4 14 18
4 Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 11 8 19
5 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 9 11 20
6 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 13 11 24
7 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 18 11 29
8 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 18 16 34
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 2 1 3 Braeden Bommarahau '21
Christopher Zawadzki '20
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 1 3 4 Samantha Jensen '20
Michael Matuch '20
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 3 2 5 Braden Rottner '20
Anderson Osinski '22
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 4 5 9 Charlie Robinson '22
Megan Williams '22
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 5 6 11 Nicholas Barillari '22
Sydney Kelsch '22
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 DNF 4 13 Accidental Gybe '15
Capsize One '15
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 DNF DNF 18 Mark Hofmeister '20
Nathan Jarosz '21
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 DNF DNF 18 Accidental Gybe '15
Capsize One '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 1 1 2 Colin Marcolini '22
Garrett Grenauer '20
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 3 3 6 Anderson Osinski '22
Gavin Sheehan '20
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 4 4 8 Chad Swiech '22
Megan Kelsch '22
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 2 DNF 11 Forgot Bailer '15
Tiller Extension '15
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 5 6 11 Ethan Stoffman '20
Sam Thompson '20
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 DNF 2 11 Braeden Bommarahau '21
No Show
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 DNF 5 14 Sal Deni '22
Junqi Wu '20
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 DNF 7 16 Forgot Bailer '15
Mark Room '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders11
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 122
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 233
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 144
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 255
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 166
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 277
Williamsville NorthWilliamsville North Spartans88

Division B

Team1B2B
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders22
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 133
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 244
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 155
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 266
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 177
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 288
Williamsville NorthWilliamsville North Spartans11

Conditions — 09/20/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1022.3 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 5.1 kn
Gusts to 11.1 kn
From SSW (197°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover56% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1022.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Nichols: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.39 ± 0.47)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Nichols by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Nichols, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →