Turkey Leg 2020

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 15 12 27
2 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles maroon 29 23 52
3 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 44 21 65
4 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 44 38 82
5 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 50 39 89
6 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 22 70 92
7 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles white jv 69 50 119
8 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Black Mixed 51 77 128
9 Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 53 76 129
10 West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 74 59 133
11 Haslett High School Haslett High School Mixed 77 63 140
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 6 1 1 2 1 1 2 15 Eden Nykamp '21
Jonas Pearson '25
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 6 2 2 2 1 4 2 3 22 Derek Hartman '22
Joshua Hacker '24
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles maroon 5 1 3 3 3 6 7 1 29 Ethen Stone '21
Parker Kumler '23
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 2 3 4 9 11 3 4 8 44 Nyle Eggert '24
Ryan Bonney '24
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 4 7 5 5 4 10 3 6 44 Joshua Elwood '22
Cameron Bert '26
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 3 8 8 4 6 2 8 11 50 Griffin Phares '21
Charlie Bassett '21
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Black Mixed 9 5 7 8 8 5 5 4 51 Jack Hubbard '25
Caleb Keenan '25
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 7 4 6 7 10 8 6 5 53 Michael Cyrul '24 [1-8]
Jake Stagg '25 [1-2]
Lena Clark '22 [3-4]
Danielle Mason '24 [5-8]
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles white jv 8 9 11 11 7 7 9 7 69 John Piceu '24
Phoebe Dix '23
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 11 10 9 10 5 9 11 9 74 Joey Skerbeck '22 [1-8]
Bryce Overbeek '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Hanan Lomax '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Haslett High School Haslett High School Mixed 10 11 10 6 9 11 10 10 77 Michael Kovalchik '22 [1-8]
C. Debruyn '27 [1-2]
Jake Stagg '25 [3-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 12 Lj Nykamp '25
Kiarra Bracelly '25
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 5 4 2 1 1 2 2 4 21 Brooklyn Verplank '25
Caroline Henry '23
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles maroon 2 2 1 3 3 6 3 3 23 Sofia Dolan '22
Addi Pohl '23
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 3 3 6 5 6 3 4 8 38 Matthew Tevelde '26
Connor Dinkelmann '22
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 9 6 4 4 4 5 5 2 39 Charlie Navarre '21
Gavin Yonker '24
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles white jv 10 8 5 6 5 4 6 6 50 Kevin Zhu '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Renata Altuzar '22 [3-4, 7-8]
William Booth '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Maria Ramos '21 [3-4, 7-8]
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 4 7 10 7 9 8 7 7 59 Julian Carrier '23
Carson Dobb '24
Haslett High School Haslett High School Mixed 7 5 11 11 8 7 9 5 63 Tony Harkins '21
Clayton Debruyd '26
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 6 10 7 10 7 10 10 10 70 Jacob Bassett '24
Tanner Robbins '24
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 11 11 8 8 10 9 8 11 76 Talena Monasmith '22
Lena Clark '22
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Black Mixed 8 9 9 9 11 11 11 9 77 Andrew Twa '24
Mathew Marshall '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles maroon404404404404404404404404
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles white jv403403403403403403403403
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed1212121212121212
Lansing CatholicLansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed702702702702702702702702
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed401401401401401401401401
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed406406406406406406406406
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed701701701701701701701701

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles maroon404404404404404404404404
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles white jv403403403403403403403403
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed1212121212121212
Lansing CatholicLansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed702702702702702702702702
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed401401401401401401401401
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed406406406406406406406406
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed701701701701701701701701

Conditions — 10/31/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1023.1 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.3 kn
avg  ·  max 15.0 kn
Gusts to 29.7 kn
From SSE (167°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1023.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Spring Lake: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.30 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Spring Lake by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Spring Lake: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →