MISSA Cressy Qualifier (ILCA 6/ Radial)

HostLake Forest Sailing
Date09/18/2021
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Minnetonka High School	Jacob Zils '23	48
2	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Peter Barnard '23	73 LOP
3	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Deana Fedulova '24	80 LOP
4	Culver Academies	Annie Samis '25	89
5	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	Owen Bannasch '22	97
6	Lake Forest High School	Tristan Mcdonald '24	100
7	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Avery Baldwin '25	102 LOP
8	Lake Forest High School	Charlie Gish '24	113
9	Black River Public School	Lj Nykamp '25	123
10	Latin School of Chicago	Christian Prendergast '24	142 LOP
11	Bay High School	Jack Vanderhorst '22	148
12	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Madeline Torrey '24	150
13	Stevenson High School	Spencer Glickson '22	175
14	Olentangy Liberty High School	Emma Friedauer '22	185
15	Orono High School	Kytalin Hendrickson '22	191
16	Lake Forest High School	Leo Kumar '23	207
17	Lake Forest High School	Alec Ranker '24	217
18	St. Edward High School	Charles Schaffner '22	223
19	Harbor Springs Sailing Team	Maren Matthews '22	226
20	East Grand Rapids	Ella Towner '23	230
21	Lake Forest Academy	Matthew Sexton '24	234
22	Minnetonka High School	Tryg Van Wyk '22	245
23	New Trier HS	Caroline Mcclain '24	264 LOP
24	Grosse Pointe South High School	Grant Corrion '22	269
25	Hinsdale Central High School	Logan Hoang '23	272
26	Dublin Coffman	Evelyn Hannah '24	281
27	Lake Forest High School	Semo Zitouni '24	320
28	Detroit Country Day School	Liam Hounsell '23	324
29	Bay High School	Annika Vanderhorst '23	326
30	New Trier HS	Abby Bennett O'Keefe '23	352
31	Minnetonka High School	Giovanni Decarli '24	360 LOP
32	Lake Forest High School	Matthew Ranker '24	365
33	New Trier HS	Will Broseman '22	366
34	Orono High School	Aiden Ide '25	377
35	Orono High School	Hunter Wheaton '23	381
36	Pewaukee High School	David Kiss '23	444

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT
Minnetonka High School	Jacob Zils '23	7	5	1	1	2	1	13	9	1	3	1	4	48
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Peter Barnard '23	1	1	RAF	4	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	5	73 LOP
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Deana Fedulova '24	4	7	6	3	5	4	4	12	3	5	2	15	80 LOP
Culver Academies	Annie Samis '25	10	12	5	5	7	6	1	4	7	1	20	11	89
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	Owen Bannasch '22	9	8	7	12	14	9	8	7	4	7	4	8	97
Lake Forest High School	Tristan Mcdonald '24	12	21	4	8	3	7	7	2	15	11	9	1	100
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Avery Baldwin '25	2	11	2	2	4	5	9	10	13	15	13	6	102 LOP
Lake Forest High School	Charlie Gish '24	5	3	OCS	11	8	8	5	8	9	6	6	7	113
Black River Public School	Lj Nykamp '25	3	10	3	7	13	12	6	5	8	10	DNS	9	123
Latin School of Chicago	Christian Prendergast '24	17	17	13	19	9	14	19	6	5	4	7	2	142 LOP
Bay High School	Jack Vanderhorst '22	16	18	10	10	11	3	11	21	12	14	8	14	148
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Madeline Torrey '24	8	4	17	9	6	11	3	3	6	9	OCS	DSQ	150
Stevenson High School	Spencer Glickson '22	6	6	18	16	10	28	23	27	14	13	11	3	175
Olentangy Liberty High School	Emma Friedauer '22	13	15	9	15	21	19	10	14	17	16	16	20	185
Orono High School	Kytalin Hendrickson '22	11	2	8	6	17	22	24	24	24	17	19	17	191
Lake Forest High School	Leo Kumar '23	22	13	14	17	12	10	12	20	16	23	22	26	207
Lake Forest High School	Alec Ranker '24	20	20	20	18	20	18	18	19	11	20	17	16	217
St. Edward High School	Charles Schaffner '22	14	19	12	22	16	23	21	22	21	OCS	3	13	223
Harbor Springs Sailing Team	Maren Matthews '22	23	23	23	14	27	16	20	17	29	12	10	12	226
East Grand Rapids	Ella Towner '23	25	27	25	26	15	26	14	13	10	19	12	18	230
Lake Forest Academy	Matthew Sexton '24	21	22	21	13	26	13	15	11	20	21	28	23	234
Minnetonka High School	Tryg Van Wyk '22	19	26	16	20	23	15	28	16	23	22	18	19	245
New Trier HS	Caroline Mcclain '24	15	9	15	24	22	27	16	18	19	27	25	DSQ	264 LOP
Grosse Pointe South High School	Grant Corrion '22	24	14	11	25	25	24	25	26	27	18	26	24	269
Hinsdale Central High School	Logan Hoang '23	18	16	19	21	28	20	27	25	25	24	21	28	272
Dublin Coffman	Evelyn Hannah '24	27	31	28	30	24	25	17	15	31	28	15	10	281
Lake Forest High School	Semo Zitouni '24	30	33	26	23	18	17	22	23	35	32	31	30	320
Detroit Country Day School	Liam Hounsell '23	31	25	27	28	30	30	31	29	22	26	24	21	324
Bay High School	Annika Vanderhorst '23	26	30	22	27	19	32	26	28	28	33	30	25	326
New Trier HS	Abby Bennett O'Keefe '23	29	24	30	31	33	31	32	32	26	30	23	31	352
Minnetonka High School	Giovanni Decarli '24	28	29	24	34	34	21	30	34	30	31	33	22	360 LOP
Lake Forest High School	Matthew Ranker '24	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	18	8	14	29	365
New Trier HS	Will Broseman '22	32	28	31	29	31	29	33	33	32	29	27	32	366
Orono High School	Aiden Ide '25	33	34	32	32	29	33	29	31	34	25	32	33	377
Orono High School	Hunter Wheaton '23	34	32	29	33	32	34	34	30	33	34	29	27	381
Pewaukee High School	David Kiss '23	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	444

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 36 boats · 12 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Jacob Zils '23	Minnetonka High School Skippers 2	12/12	2.57	4.24	+1.67	93rd → 99th	9.0	1%	4.0 / 12.2
2	Peter Barnard '23	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 2	12/12	3.49	5.39	+1.90	99th → 99th	9.1	14%	5.2 / 8.1
3	Deana Fedulova '24	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	12/12	1.92	3.61	+1.69	82nd → 99th	9.6	2%	5.8 / 15.5
4	Annie Samis '25	Culver Academies	12/12	2.21	3.07	+0.86	86th → 99th	2.9	4%	7.4 / 13.7
5	Avery Baldwin '25	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1	12/12	2.57	3.09	+0.53	92nd → 99th	1.2	10%	7.7 / 12.1
6	Owen Bannasch '22	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	12/12	1.40	3.12	+1.73	70th → 99th	10.3	1%	8.1 / 18.0
7	Tristan Mcdonald '24	Lake Forest High School Scouts 4	12/12	1.82	2.89	+1.07	81st → 97th	4.4	2%	8.3 / 15.7
8	Charlie Gish '24	Lake Forest High School Scouts 6	12/12	2.79	3.39	+0.60	96th → 99th	1.4	34%	9.4 / 11.1
9	Lj Nykamp '25	Black River Public School	12/12	2.44	3.13	+0.70	91st → 99th	1.9	33%	10.2 / 12.8
10	Christian Prendergast '24	Latin School of Chicago	12/12	1.40	2.35	+0.95	70th → 89th	3.6	9%	11.0 / 17.9
11	Jack Vanderhorst '22	Bay High School Varsity 2	12/12	2.50	2.19	−0.31	92nd → 86th	0.5	52%	12.3 / 12.6
12	Madeline Torrey '24	Lycee Francais de Chicago	12/12	2.07^u	3.07	+1.00	84th → 99th	3.3	36%	12.5 / 14.6
13	Spencer Glickson '22	Stevenson High School	12/12	1.34	1.58	+0.24	67th → 75th	0.3	27%	14.6 / 18.1
14	Emma Friedauer '22	Olentangy Liberty High School	12/12	1.62	1.79	+0.17	75th → 80th	0.1	42%	15.4 / 16.7
15	Kytalin Hendrickson '22	Orono High School Spartans 2	12/12	1.63	1.51	−0.12	76th → 73rd	0.1	46%	15.9 / 16.8
16	Leo Kumar '23	Lake Forest High School Scouts 5	12/12	1.35	1.41	+0.05	68th → 70th	0.0	45%	17.2 / 18.0
17	Alec Ranker '24	Lake Forest High School Scouts 3	12/12	1.24	1.45	+0.21	65th → 71st	0.2	47%	18.1 / 18.6
18	Charles Schaffner '22	St. Edward High School	12/12	1.44	1.50	+0.06	71st → 73rd	0.0	58%	18.6 / 17.7
19	Maren Matthews '22	Harbor Springs Sailing Team	12/12	1.20	1.10	−0.09	65th → 61st	0.0	50%	18.8 / 18.8
20	Ella Towner '23	East Grand Rapids	12/12	1.09	1.05	−0.04	60th → 59th	0.0	49%	19.2 / 19.3
21	Matthew Sexton '24	Lake Forest Academy	12/12	1.48	1.04	−0.44	72nd → 59th	1.1	72%	19.5 / 17.3
22	Tryg Van Wyk '22	Minnetonka High School Skippers 3	12/12	0.68	1.05	+0.38	45th → 59th	0.7	41%	20.4 / 21.5
23	Caroline Mcclain '24	New Trier HS Trevian 3	12/12	1.37	1.04	−0.33	68th → 59th	0.6	72%	21.2 / 18.0
24	Grant Corrion '22	Grosse Pointe South High School	12/12	0.86	0.76	−0.10	52nd → 48th	0.1	63%	22.4 / 20.6
25	Logan Hoang '23	Hinsdale Central High School	12/12	0.28	0.74	+0.46	30th → 47th	1.0	43%	22.7 / 23.4
26	Evelyn Hannah '24	Dublin Coffman	12/12	0.73	0.27	−0.46	47th → 30th	1.2	67%	23.4 / 21.0
27	Semo Zitouni '24	Lake Forest High School Scouts 1	12/12	-0.10	-0.44	−0.34	19th → 12th	0.5	60%	26.7 / 25.2
28	Liam Hounsell '23	Detroit Country Day School	12/12	0.85	-0.03	−0.88	52nd → 21st	4.8	89%	27.0 / 20.6
29	Annika Vanderhorst '23	Bay High School Varsity 1	12/12	0.85	-0.17	−1.02	52nd → 17th	6.3	90%	27.2 / 20.8
30	Giovanni Decarli '24	Minnetonka High School Skippers 1	12/12	-0.61	-1.09	−0.48	9th → 3rd	0.8	65%	29.2 / 27.3
31	Abby Bennett O'Keefe '23	New Trier HS Trevian 1	12/12	0.54^u	-0.61	−1.15	40th → 9th	8.2	93%	29.3 / 22.2
32	Matthew Ranker '24	Lake Forest High School Scouts 2	12/12	0.56	1.03	+0.47	41st → 59th	0.3	96%	30.4 / 22.2
33	Will Broseman '22	New Trier HS Trevian 2	12/12	-0.16	-0.75	−0.59	17th → 7th	1.9	86%	30.5 / 25.5
34	Aiden Ide '25	Orono High School Spartans 3	12/12	-0.71	-1.37	−0.66	8th → 1st	1.9	81%	31.4 / 27.8
35	Hunter Wheaton '23	Orono High School Spartans 1	12/12	-0.39	-1.50	−1.11	13th → 1st	5.2	92%	31.8 / 26.3
36	David Kiss '23	Pewaukee High School	12/12	1.36	—	—	68th → —	0.0	>99%	37.0 / 18.0

Conditions — 09/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 70% · Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

70°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 68°F

Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.9 kn

avg · max 10.4 kn

Gusts to 21.8 kn

From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover19% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1022.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Lake Forest Sailing — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Lake Forest Sailing in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Forest Sailing by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Lake Forest Sailing, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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