Navigate

NJISA 2021 Fall Series 5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 9 2 11
2 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 6 14 20
3 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 8 12 20
4 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 17 4 21
5 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 10 12 22
6 Biotechnology High School Biotechnology High School Nerds 18 7 25
7 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 14 12 26
8 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 11 20 31
9 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 12 22 34
10 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 18 17 35
11 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 13 24 37
12 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 24 17 41
13 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 27 24 51
14 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 24 29 53
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Biotechnology High SchoolBiotechnology High School Nerds11
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars22
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 133
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 244
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 355
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 466
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 177
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 288
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 11010
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 21111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 11212
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 21313
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs1616
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils1717

Division B

Team1B2B
Biotechnology High SchoolBiotechnology High School Nerds11
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars22
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 133
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 244
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 355
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 466
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 177
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 288
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 11010
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 21111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 11212
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 21313
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs1616
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils1717

Conditions — 10/13/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1016.7 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 10.9 kn
From SSE (154°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine1.9 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1016.7 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Donovan Catholic: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.20)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 17% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Donovan Catholic by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Donovan Catholic, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →