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NWISA Singlehanded Qualifiers - Radial

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT
Ballard High School Ballard High School Dieter Creitz '25 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 11
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Danny Juan '23 6 3 4 1 3 3 1 3 24
Raisbeck Aviation High School Raisbeck Aviation High School Alex Shemwell '24 3 6 7 9 2 13 10 1 51
Raisbeck Aviation High School Raisbeck Aviation High School Lucien Freemesser '23 2 8 20 4 9 2 3 5 53
Juanita High School Juanita High School Beaver Kaitlyn '25 8 10 18 6 4 6 4 12 68
The Downtown School The Downtown School Isabelle Mcnabb '22 9 5 2 8 11 8 19 8 70
Olympia High School Olympia High School Charlie Snyder '24 7 2 3 20 20 7 16 4 79
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Barrett Lhamon '22 5 25 6 5 5 14 9 13 82
Olympia High School Olympia High School Charlie Snyder '24 10 11 5 12 8 10 17 11 84
Juanita High School Juanita High School Beaver Hannah '25 4 19 11 OCS 7 9 5 10 93
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Camryn Lee '24 20 4 9 OCS 6 11 7 14 99
Mount Si High School Mount Si High School Nathan Gerber '22 15 21 8 13 12 12 14 7 102
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Ben Stone '23 12 13 17 7 10 15 12 17 103
Lake Washington Lake Washington Max Conze '25 19 9 13 14 18 26 6 6 111
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cormac Burke '22 24 20 12 11 16 17 8 9 117
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Gianna Dewey '23 11 7 16 10 13 23 18 20 118
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Adam Turloff '24 13 18 21 OCS 15 4 13 15 127
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Nico Konyk '25 18 16 14 16 19 16 22 19 140
The Bush School The Bush School Sarah Sherley '23 25 17 19 15 23 5 15 21 140
Garfield High School Garfield High School Kairo Zimmerman Goad '24 14 12 22 17 21 19 26 18 149
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Adam Turloff '24 16 24 26 OCS 14 18 11 16 153
Olympia High School Olympia High School Charlie Snyder '24 17 15 15 DNF 17 20 20 26 158
Interlake High School Interlake High School Liam Krol '24 22 14 23 18 26 21 21 22 167
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Carter Anderson '23 DNF 22 25 3 25 22 23 25 173
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Ryan Downey '25 23 23 27 19 22 24 25 23 186
Olympia High School Olympia High School Yuri Berebitsky '24 21 26 10 21 DNF 27 27 DNF 188
Newport High School (WA) Newport High School (WA) Rian Stanton '25 26 DNF 24 22 24 25 24 24 197

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  27 boats · 8 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Dieter Creitz '25Ballard High School8/83.126.42+3.3099th → 99th12.6<1%1.4 / 6.8
2Danny Juan '23Roosevelt High School8/82.324.29+1.9789th → 99th7.51%3.0 / 9.6
3Alex Shemwell '24Raisbeck Aviation High School Raisbeck Aviation 28/81.042.84+1.7959th → 96th7.23%6.4 / 14.4
4Lucien Freemesser '23Raisbeck Aviation High School Raisbeck Aviation 18/81.722.56+0.8478th → 92nd1.810%6.6 / 11.9
5Beaver Kaitlyn '25Juanita High School Ravens 18/80.892.32+1.4354th → 88th5.07%8.5 / 14.9
6Isabelle Mcnabb '22The Downtown School8/81.312.27+0.9667th → 88th2.514%8.8 / 13.3
7Charlie Snyder '24Olympia High School Bears 18/81.841.53−0.3181st → 74th0.338%9.9 / 11.4
8Barrett Lhamon '22Bainbridge High School Spartans 18/81.721.48−0.2479th → 72nd0.239%10.2 / 11.8
9Charlie Snyder '24Olympia High School Bears 28/81.841.95+0.1181st → 82nd0.046%10.5 / 11.3
10Beaver Hannah '25Juanita High School Ravens 28/80.602.14+1.5342nd → 85th4.916%11.6 / 16.1
11Camryn Lee '24Charles Wright Academy8/80.791.93+1.1350th → 82nd2.924%12.4 / 15.5
12Nathan Gerber '22Mount Si High School8/80.971.52+0.5557th → 74th0.935%12.8 / 14.7
13Ben Stone '23Bainbridge High School Spartans 28/81.141.61+0.4762nd → 75th0.741%12.9 / 14.0
14Max Conze '25Lake Washington8/81.11u1.01−0.1061st → 58th0.047%13.9 / 14.3
15Cormac Burke '22Central Kitsap High School8/80.381.10+0.7233rd → 61st1.529%14.6 / 16.9
16Gianna Dewey '23Bainbridge High School Spartans 48/81.541.17−0.3674th → 64th0.574%14.8 / 12.5
17Adam Turloff '24Bainbridge High School Spartans 68/80.581.36+0.7741st → 68th1.547%15.9 / 16.1
18Nico Konyk '25Gig Harbor High School8/81.240.89−0.3665th → 53rd0.581%17.5 / 13.6
18Sarah Sherley '23The Bush School8/80.98u0.53−0.4657th → 39th0.773%17.5 / 14.7
20Kairo Zimmerman Goad '24Garfield High School8/80.98u0.52−0.4657th → 39th0.881%18.6 / 14.7
21Adam Turloff '24Bainbridge High School Spartans 78/80.580.59+0.0141st → 42nd0.076%19.1 / 16.2
22Charlie Snyder '24Olympia High School Bears 38/81.840.33−1.5181st → 31st7.998%19.8 / 11.3
23Liam Krol '24Interlake High School8/80.85u0.06−0.8052nd → 23rd2.390%20.9 / 15.2
24Carter Anderson '23Bainbridge High School Spartans 38/80.470.09−0.3936th → 24th0.588%21.6 / 16.6
25Ryan Downey '25Bainbridge High School Spartans 58/80.82-0.31−1.1351st → 15th4.998%23.2 / 15.1
26Yuri Berebitsky '24Olympia High School Bears 48/80.34-1.12−1.4632nd → 3rd3.995%23.5 / 17.1
27Rian Stanton '25Newport High School (WA)8/80.16u-0.71−0.8826th → 7th2.097%24.6 / 17.9

Conditions — 10/02/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1022.0 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From SSW (194°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine6.9 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1022.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →