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ILCA 6 Burke Thomas Trophy

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT
Ballard High School Ballard High School Dieter Creitz '25 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 2 18
Orcas High School Orcas High School Kai Vurno '26 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 4 2 4 1 21
Raisbeck Aviation High School Raisbeck Aviation High School Alex Shemwell '23 5 14 4 4 6 3 3 3 1 2 3 48
Inglemoor High School Inglemoor High School Hannah Beaver '25 8 4 3 3 3 5 4 10 10 3 6 59
Raisbeck Aviation High School Raisbeck Aviation High School Lucien Freemesser '23 3 5 6 8 10 6 7 11 5 11 11 83
Juanita High School Juanita High School Kaitlyn Beaver '25 7 9 8 5 4 7 14 14 12 6 19 105
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Alexander Turloff '24 12 7 10 10 13 11 13 18 7 5 5 111
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Owen Thomas '23 10 13 5 11 12 9 9 5 4 13 21 112
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Nico Konyk '25 11 3 12 9 9 8 5 8 11 16 20 112
Eastside Preparatory School Eastside Preparatory School Delfino Li '24 6 12 9 12 11 18 6 12 16 9 10 121
Columbia High School - WA Columbia High School - WA Leif Hauge '24 9 10 11 6 5 16 11 7 22 10 18 125
Columbia High School - WA Columbia High School - WA Cole Newbrook '25 4 15 7 7 8 4 18 13 25 25 14 140
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Oliver Nairn '23 18 6 13 14 20 15 17 6 6 28 8 151
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Adam Turloff '24 13 17 14 17 21 14 10 16 9 20 4 155
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Lhotse Rowell '24 15 8 16 18 19 19 12 9 21 12 15 164
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Carter Anderson '23 14 11 20 13 7 10 25 17 20 15 22 174
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Ryan Downey '25 16 16 15 19 14 12 23 20 13 22 7 177
Yelm High School Yelm High School Esther Ireland '25 20 19 18 20 17 21 16 15 8 24 9 187
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Willy Walden '24 17 20 21 22 22 25 24 24 14 19 16 224
Bothell High School Bothell High School Ian Blakemore '25 19 23 17 16 16 17 21 2 DNS DNS DNS 224
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Joseph Tappen '25 21 18 19 15 15 13 15 28 DNF 27 26 228
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Elliott Chalcraft '23 23 22 25 24 23 20 20 26 18 18 17 236
Olympia High School Olympia High School Yuri Berebitsky '24 26 25 24 DNS 24 24 22 29 23 7 13 248
Olympia High School Olympia High School Liam Taylor '25 22 24 22 21 27 22 19 23 24 21 24 249
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Owen Burnett '24 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 8 19 17 8 12 250
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Elijah Dekker '26 25 26 27 26 25 27 29 22 15 14 23 259
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Rian Stanton '25 29 28 29 28 29 28 28 21 19 17 27 283
Garfield High School Garfield High School Miles Edwards '25 27 27 26 25 26 26 27 25 26 26 25 286
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Camryn Lee '24 24 21 23 23 18 23 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 287
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Max Day '26 28 29 28 27 28 29 26 27 27 23 28 300

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  30 boats · 11 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Dieter Creitz '25Ballard High School11/113.326.01+2.6999th → 99th14.0<1%1.6 / 7.1
2Kai Vurno '26Orcas High School11/112.28u5.61+3.3388th → 99th22.0<1%1.9 / 11.1
3Alex Shemwell '23Raisbeck Aviation High School Raisbeck Aviation 211/111.80u3.75+1.9580th → 99th10.81%4.4 / 13.2
4Hannah Beaver '25Inglemoor High School11/111.713.44+1.7378th → 99th9.10%5.4 / 13.3
5Lucien Freemesser '23Raisbeck Aviation High School Raisbeck Aviation 111/112.102.82+0.7284th → 96th2.015%7.5 / 11.9
6Kaitlyn Beaver '25Juanita High School11/111.832.29+0.4681st → 88th0.918%9.5 / 12.9
7Alexander Turloff '24Bainbridge High School Spartans 211/112.192.22+0.0386th → 87th0.041%10.1 / 11.4
8Nico Konyk '25Gig Harbor High School11/111.492.18+0.6972nd → 86th1.818%10.2 / 14.5
8Owen Thomas '23Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 111/111.772.15+0.3879th → 85th0.627%10.2 / 13.1
10Delfino Li '24Eastside Preparatory School11/111.51u2.08+0.5873rd → 84th1.324%11.0 / 14.4
11Leif Hauge '24Columbia High School - WA Bruins 111/111.681.85+0.1777th → 81st0.132%11.4 / 13.6
12Cole Newbrook '25Columbia High School - WA Bruins 211/110.921.39+0.4755th → 69th0.919%12.7 / 16.8
13Oliver Nairn '23Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 211/111.491.18−0.3172nd → 65th0.445%13.7 / 14.5
14Adam Turloff '24Bainbridge High School Spartans 111/111.541.51−0.0274th → 73rd0.050%14.1 / 14.3
15Lhotse Rowell '24Port Townsend High School Redhawks 211/111.001.42+0.4258th → 70th0.738%14.9 / 16.4
16Carter Anderson '23Bainbridge High School Spartans 611/111.051.14+0.0959th → 62nd0.045%15.8 / 16.4
17Ryan Downey '25Bainbridge High School Spartans 511/111.271.20−0.0666th → 65th0.055%16.1 / 15.5
18Esther Ireland '25Yelm High School11/111.681.02−0.6677th → 58th2.484%17.0 / 13.4
19Ian Blakemore '25Bothell High School11/111.331.09−0.2367th → 60th0.288%20.4 / 15.1
19Willy Walden '24Port Townsend High School Redhawks 111/110.530.58+0.0539th → 41st0.065%20.4 / 18.4
21Joseph Tappen '25Bainbridge High School Spartans 411/110.360.40+0.0433rd → 34th0.062%20.7 / 19.3
22Elliott Chalcraft '23Bainbridge High School Spartans 311/110.670.37−0.3045th → 33rd0.479%21.5 / 18.0
23Yuri Berebitsky '24Olympia High School Bears 111/110.38-0.04−0.4233rd → 21st0.778%22.5 / 19.0
24Liam Taylor '25Olympia High School Bears 211/110.680.20−0.4845th → 27th1.286%22.6 / 17.9
25Owen Burnett '24North Kitsap High School11/111.111.71+0.6061st → 78th0.794%22.7 / 16.1
26Elijah Dekker '26Central Kitsap High School11/110.18-0.32−0.5027th → 15th1.281%23.5 / 19.8
27Rian Stanton '25Unregistered-NESSA11/110.16u-1.45−1.6226th → 1st10.693%25.7 / 20.0
28Miles Edwards '25Garfield High School11/110.51u-0.51−1.0239th → 11th6.097%26.0 / 18.5
29Camryn Lee '24Charles Wright Academy11/110.720.34−0.3846th → 32nd0.498%26.1 / 17.7
30Max Day '26Bellingham High School11/11-0.19-1.45−1.2616th → 1st6.395%27.3 / 21.4

Conditions — 10/01/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.3 kn
avg  ·  max 12.3 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From N (354°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1016.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Ballard — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Ballard in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ballard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Ballard: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →