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ISSA Cressy Trophy ILCA 7

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT
Severn School Severn School Robby Meek '23 1 2 2 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 9 8 42
Brunswick School Brunswick School Ben Sheppard '23 4 1 3 1 2 6 3 10 2 3 1 3 11 2 2 5 12 16 87
Lemon Bay High School Lemon Bay High School Morgan Smith '23 12 4 4 2 10 2 7 6 3 6 9 2 2 6 4 8 1 17 105
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Henry Scholz '23 3 5 8 3 7 8 16 5 14 4 2 10 7 12 6 9 6 2 127
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Tristan Mcdonald '24 2 6 12 11 5 11 4 3 8 14 7 8 5 9 11 1 8 3 128
Seattle Prep Seattle Prep Jack Carroll '24 7 3 1 17 13 3 10 2 6 2 15 4 6 11 5 15 4 9 133
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Tate Christopher '25 6 7 5 7 3 7 14 14 9 10 6 11 3 16 7 3 5 1 134
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Harrison Strom '24 8 10 14 8 6 9 2 7 7 7 5 6 10 3 9 6 13 15 145
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Charlie Gish '24 5 13 9 4 12 13 8 4 5 8 8 7 8 4 16 10 14 11 159
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Kevin Gosselin '23 10 16 6 13 11 5 13 12 12 11 4 5 18 10 3 4 7 5 165
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Wyatt Bischoff '23 9 9 10 6 15 4 6 9 10 12 10 12 4 7 13 16 10 6 168
The Grauer School The Grauer School Devon Owen '23 14 18 11 12 9 10 9 8 4 5 14 18 9 8 14 12 11 12 198
St. John's School St. John's School William Baker '25 13 14 15 14 4 15 11 16 17 9 16 15 14 5 12 14 2 4 210
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Sean Trudell '24 17 8 13 10 14 17 5 18 15 15 11 9 17 15 10 11 3 14 222
St. John's College High School St. John's College High School Willem Desimone '23 11 12 7 9 16 12 18 15 13 18 17 16 15 13 18 7 17 13 247
Delbarton School Delbarton School James O'Gwen '23 15 17 18 18 8 16 12 11 16 17 13 13 13 17 8 13 15 10 250
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Sam Riley '23 18 15 16 15 17 14 15 13 11 13 18 14 12 14 15 18 16 7 261
Cardinal Mooney High School Cardinal Mooney High School Alex Liebel '23 16 11 17 16 18 18 17 17 18 16 12 17 16 18 17 17 DNS DNS 299

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 18 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Robby Meek '23Severn School18/184.665.57+0.9199th → 99th3.73%2.3 / 4.4
2Ben Sheppard '23Brunswick School18/182.854.02+1.1797th → 99th7.02%4.8 / 8.8
3Morgan Smith '23Lemon Bay High School18/182.703.66+0.9795th → 99th5.04%5.8 / 9.2
4Henry Scholz '23Lake Forest High School Scouts 118/183.053.30+0.2599th → 99th0.428%7.1 / 8.3
5Tristan Mcdonald '24Lake Forest High School Scouts 318/182.263.44+1.1888th → 99th7.74%7.1 / 10.4
6Jack Carroll '24Seattle Prep18/182.67u3.07+0.3995th → 99th0.924%7.4 / 9.3
7Tate Christopher '25Mater Dei High School18/183.173.15−0.0299th → 99th0.042%7.4 / 7.9
8Harrison Strom '24Point Loma High School18/183.033.17+0.1498th → 99th0.148%8.1 / 8.3
9Charlie Gish '24Lake Forest High School Scouts 218/182.752.91+0.1695th → 97th0.246%8.8 / 9.1
10Kevin Gosselin '23St. Thomas Aquinas High School18/182.272.73+0.4588th → 95th1.332%9.2 / 10.3
11Wyatt Bischoff '23Tabor Academy18/182.602.82+0.2293rd → 96th0.345%9.3 / 9.6
12Devon Owen '23The Grauer School18/183.092.17−0.9299th → 85th6.393%11.0 / 8.1
13William Baker '25St. John's School18/183.072.02−1.0599th → 83rd9.596%11.7 / 8.1
14Sean Trudell '24Norfolk Academy18/182.661.78−0.8894th → 80th5.893%12.3 / 9.4
15Willem Desimone '23St. John's College High School18/181.531.35−0.1774th → 68th0.273%13.7 / 12.2
16James O'Gwen '23Delbarton School18/181.901.53−0.3782nd → 74th0.986%13.9 / 11.3
17Sam Riley '23Marthas Vineyard RHS18/181.601.35−0.2475th → 68th0.491%14.5 / 12.1
18Alex Liebel '23Cardinal Mooney High School18/180.850.85−0.0052nd → 52nd0.094%16.6 / 13.8

Conditions — 10/29/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1028.2 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.2 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From NNE (22°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover57% Sunshine8.4 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1028.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion University — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Old Dominion University in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Old Dominion University, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →