Lake Max Fall Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 17 12 29
2 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 18 18 36
3 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 15 28 43
4 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles grey 25 18 43
5 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles maroon 29 22 51
6 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 28 32 60
7 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles white 36 39 75
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 1 3 1 1 7 2 15 Greta Traver '23
Hanan Lomax '25
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 7 1 3 2 1 3 17 Nissa Berman '26
Georgia Beal '24
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 3 6 2 4 2 1 18 Xinshi (Jerry) Feng '23
Xuqiu (Tina) Wang '23
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles grey 6 4 5 3 3 4 25 Diego Jiminez '25
Wyatt Miller '24
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 4 2 4 7 6 5 28 Lydia Frost '25
Cruise Lickerman '26
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles maroon 2 5 6 5 5 6 29 Emelia Murat '24 [1-6]
Juan Diego Urrueal '25 [1-5]
Yili Wen '23 [6]
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles white 5 7 7 6 4 7 36 Elena Mesalic '23
Lily Malin '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 3 3 3 1 1 1 12 Grace Renz '26
Betsy Finley '23
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles grey 2 1 5 3 3 4 18 Christopher Mikesell '24
Saufong (Irene) Lin '25
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 4 2 1 2 4 5 18 Naixin (Angela) Tang '24
Addison Pohl '23
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles maroon 1 7 2 4 5 3 22 Matt Spear '24
Natalie Altuzar '23
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 5 6 4 5 6 2 28 Amelia Traver '24 [1-6]
Oleksandra Smovska '25 [1-5]
Lily Johnson '23 [6]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 7 5 6 6 2 6 32 Jack Colyer '25
Amy Ren '23
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles white 6 4 7 DSQ 7 7 39 Cole Heiman '25 [1-6]
Noah Tomkins '26 [1-5]
Oleksandra Smovska '25 [6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons12123355
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles114499
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles grey55101011
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles maroon33551010
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles white44991212
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Mixed99121233
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles10101144

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons114499
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles33551010
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles grey99121233
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles maroon44991212
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles white55101011
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Mixed10101144
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles12123355

Conditions — 09/10/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1016.7 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 86°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From SSW (209°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1016.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn · S 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Culver Academies: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.65 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Culver Academies by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Culver Academies).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →