MDISA Kent Island T-2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 5 17 22
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 11 15 26
3 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 22 7 29
4 Gunston Gunston Herons 17 13 30
5 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 26 11 37
6 Key School Key School Zags 17 31 48
7 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 29 24 53
8 Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals 29 31 60
9 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 31 35 66
10 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 35 36 71
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1 2 1 1 5 Julian Dahiya '24
Espem Herrera '26
Severn School Severn School Admirals 3 3 3 2 11 Julia Hlousek '24
Annie Lapides '25
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 4 6 5 17 Ian Kissel '23
Cooper Hightower '23
Key School Key School Zags DSQ 1 2 3 17 No Show
No Show
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 5 5 8 4 22 David Abbott '23
Timothy Berman '23
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 7 7 4 8 26 Caden Latchaw '23 [1-4]
Brooke Hayward '23 [1-2]
Audrey Valentino '24 [3-4]
Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals 8 10 5 6 29 Marcus Kozlowski '26
James Cozzens '24
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 9 6 7 7 29 Peter Morris '23
Gracie Muir '23
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4 9 9 9 31 Ellie Dorman '29
Myles Riffle '31
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 6 8 DSQ 10 35 Zachary Wells '25 [1-4]
Nathan Cayer '28 [1-2]
Shane Kenney '26 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 1 1 3 7 Douglass Abbott '23
Steven Lumpkins '23
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 4 4 2 1 11 William Fachet '23 [1-4]
Aidan Plank '24 [1-2]
Viana Johnston '28 [3-4]
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 3 3 6 13 Matthew Periconi '24 [1-2]
Eli Moore '25 [3-4]
Grace Anne Philips '23 [1-2]
Justin Mccubbin '25 [3-4]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 3 2 6 4 15 Charlotte Macdonald '26
Maura Mcpartlin '25
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 5 6 4 2 17 Nathan Van Doorn '24
Eve Cintron '26
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 6 5 5 8 24 Charles Keister '23
Eliza Szymendera '25
Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals 8 9 9 5 31 Lucia Zaklin '27
Thomas Pedersen '24
Key School Key School Zags 10 7 7 7 31 No Show
No Show
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 7 8 10 10 35 Pierce Johnstone Clark '25
Paxton Cho '26
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 9 10 8 9 36 Gavin Klakring '27 [1-2]
Aaron Zeitlin '26 [3-4]
Aaron Zeitlin '26 [1-2]
Benjamin Clark '27 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HSBethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron1133
Calvert Hall College High SchoolCalvert Hall College High School Cardinals2244
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets3355
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 15577
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 26688
Key SchoolKey School Zags7799
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders881010
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals9911
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints101022
GunstonGunston Herons4466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HSBethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron2244
Calvert Hall College High SchoolCalvert Hall College High School Cardinals3355
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets4466
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 16688
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 27799
Key SchoolKey School Zags881010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders9911
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals101022
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints1133
GunstonGunston Herons5577

Conditions — 10/16/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 11.2 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From NE (53°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1015.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Kent Island: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.16)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.37 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kent Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Kent Island, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →