Nor Cal 2 Silver Sunday

HostBerkeley
Date09/25/2022
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Stevenson School	Pirates 1	16	16
2	Los Altos High	Eagles	31	31
3	The Urban School	Blues	41	41
4	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	46	46
5	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	46	46
6	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	47	47
7	Aragon High School	Aragon	51	51
8	Stevenson School	Pirates 2	56	56
9	Mountain View High School (CA)	Mountain View	59	59
10	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	63	63
11	Archbishop Riordan	Riordan	64	64
12	Stevenson School	Pirates 4	66	66
13	SOTA High School	SOTA 1	67	67
14	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	69	69
15	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	72	72
16	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	73	73
17	SOTA High School	SOTA 2	76	76
18	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	79	79
19	Alameda High School	Hornets	82	82
20	Palo Alto High	Vikings	90	90
21	Stevenson School	Pirates 3	98	98
22	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 3	99	99
23	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	100	100
24	San Ramon Valley High School	San Ramon Valley	102	102
25	The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	110	110
26	Head-Royce School	Jayhawks	115	115
27	Heartwood Charter	Heartwood Charter	115	115
28	Amador Valley	Dons	129	129
29	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	131	131
30	Campolindo High School	Cougars	137	137

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Stevenson School	Pirates 1	2	11	1	1	1	16	Luc Dupreez '23 Sadie Marinerstein '24
Los Altos High	Eagles	8	1	7	6	9	31	Nolan Theodore '26 Deniz Ozcan '26
The Urban School	Blues	6	3	6	8	18	41	Henry Scalise '26 [1-5] Arie Kurtzig '26 [1, 3, 5] Kai Classen '24 [2, 4]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	4	18	10	4	10	46	Aleksandar Abrams '23 Lorelai Hartman '25
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	9	20	2	2	13	46	Mila Kane '25 [1-5] Ella Andrzejek '25 [1, 3, 5] Suri Severaid '25 [2, 4]
Marin Catholic	Wildcats	7	10	11	16	3	47	Luca Hines '24 Zoe Bruce '26
Aragon High School	Aragon	11	2	20	3	15	51	Marie Peroulas '29 Jaiden Jacobs '24
Stevenson School	Pirates 2	16	15	9	14	2	56	Abbie Zhang '24 Quinn Karm '23
Mountain View High School (CA)	Mountain View	5	17	16	5	16	59	Adrian Maciuca '25 Liberty Evans '26
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	1	5	18	13	26	63	Miles White '25 Miles Coleman '25
Archbishop Riordan	Riordan	3	9	26	19	7	64	Eva Bennett '25 Sophie Bucker '24
Stevenson School	Pirates 4	13	4	4	DNF	14	66	Tibet Kilic '24 Tim Zhao '24
SOTA High School	SOTA 1	15	12	8	7	25	67	Cal Smolenski '23 [1-2, 5] Cruz Morrison '25 [3-4] Justice Johnson '24 [1-2, 5] Evelyn Chuang '24 [3-4]
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	18	8	19	12	12	69	Cato Escamilla Geisler '23 Holden Elias '24
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	10	13	23	22	4	72	Annika Burns '23 Jason Lester '24
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	21	6	27	11	8	73	Julias Glasgow '24 Genevieve Cantin '25
SOTA High School	SOTA 2	17	25	5	24	5	76	Oscar Perry '24 Audrey Corson '24
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	14	16	14	15	20	79	Nico Anders '26 Coral Buono '24
Alameda High School	Hornets	20	26	15	10	11	82	Logan Schwimmer '26 John Maxey '23
Palo Alto High	Vikings	28	7	13	18	24	90	Cal Currier '24 Jacob Moore '27
Stevenson School	Pirates 3	12	21	3	DNS	DNS	98	Patrick O'Hara '27 Sarah Brewster '23
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 3	19	14	25	20	21	99	Alistair Spencer Mork '25 Elena Johnson '25
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	25	27	22	9	17	100	Cade Vix '26 Lillian Johansson '26
San Ramon Valley High School	San Ramon Valley	23	22	12	17	28	102	Elsa Hartley '24 Mikaela Hartley '25
The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	27	24	28	25	6	110	Charlie Fine '25 Ary Clark De Castilho '25
Head-Royce School	Jayhawks	22	23	21	26	23	115	Gus Jenkins '27 Ferris Warner '27
Heartwood Charter	Heartwood Charter	24	19	29	21	22	115	Aaron Ziegler '26 California Nunes '24
Amador Valley	Dons	26	DNF	30	23	19	129	Tobias Stomhagen '27 [1, 4] Sophia Stomhagen '24 [2-3, 5] Vinh Epstein '27 [1, 4] Cole Parker '24 [2-3, 5]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	29	29	17	27	29	131	Will Kizer '25 Skye Crawford '25
Campolindo High School	Cougars	30	28	24	28	27	137	Liam Hearn '24 Sage Balducci '26

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Alameda High School Hornets	52	52	52	52	52
Amador Valley Dons	46	46	46	46	46
Aragon High School Aragon	40	40	40	40	40
Archbishop Riordan Riordan	10	10	10	10	10
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 1	61	61	61	61	61
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 2	64	64	64	64	64
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 3	59	59	59	59	59
Campolindo High School Cougars	48	48	48	48	48
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	9	9	9	9	9
Design Tech High School d.tech 1	35	35	35	35	35
Design Tech High School d.tech 2	36	36	36	36	36
Head-Royce School Jayhawks	45	45	45	45	45
Heartwood Charter Heartwood Charter	47	47	47	47	47
The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	7	7	7	7	7
Los Altos High Eagles	37	37	37	37	37
Marin Catholic Wildcats	139	139	139	139	139
Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View	38	38	38	38	38
Palo Alto High Vikings	39	39	39	39	39
San Ramon Valley High School San Ramon Valley	43	43	43	43	43
SOTA High School SOTA 1	75	75	75	75	75
SOTA High School SOTA 2	73	73	73	73	73
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	4	4	4	4	4
Stevenson School Pirates 1	197	197	197	197	197
Stevenson School Pirates 2	199	199	199	199	199
Stevenson School Pirates 3	198	198	198	198	198
Stevenson School Pirates 4	97	97	97	97	97
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	140	140	140	140	140
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	79	79	79	79	79
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	82	82	82	82	82
The Urban School Blues	5	5	5	5	5

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Hornets	Logan Schwimmer '26	John Maxey '23
Amador Valley	Dons	Tobias Stomhagen '27 [1, 4] Sophia Stomhagen '24 [2-3, 5]	Vinh Epstein '27 [1, 4] Cole Parker '24 [2-3, 5]
Aragon High School	Aragon	Marie Peroulas '29	Jaiden Jacobs '24
Archbishop Riordan	Riordan	Eva Bennett '25	Sophie Bucker '24
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	Cato Escamilla Geisler '23	Holden Elias '24
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	Cade Vix '26	Lillian Johansson '26
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 3	Alistair Spencer Mork '25	Elena Johnson '25
Campolindo High School	Cougars	Liam Hearn '24	Sage Balducci '26
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	Mila Kane '25 [1-5]	Ella Andrzejek '25 [1, 3, 5] Suri Severaid '25 [2, 4]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	Will Kizer '25	Skye Crawford '25
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	Aleksandar Abrams '23	Lorelai Hartman '25
Head-Royce School	Jayhawks	Gus Jenkins '27	Ferris Warner '27
Heartwood Charter	Heartwood Charter	Aaron Ziegler '26	California Nunes '24
Los Altos High	Eagles	Nolan Theodore '26	Deniz Ozcan '26
Marin Catholic	Wildcats	Luca Hines '24	Zoe Bruce '26
Mountain View High School (CA)	Mountain View	Adrian Maciuca '25	Liberty Evans '26
Palo Alto High	Vikings	Cal Currier '24	Jacob Moore '27
SOTA High School	SOTA 1	Cal Smolenski '23 [1-2, 5] Cruz Morrison '25 [3-4]	Justice Johnson '24 [1-2, 5] Evelyn Chuang '24 [3-4]
SOTA High School	SOTA 2	Oscar Perry '24	Audrey Corson '24
San Ramon Valley High School	San Ramon Valley	Elsa Hartley '24	Mikaela Hartley '25
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	Miles White '25	Miles Coleman '25
Stevenson School	Pirates 1	Luc Dupreez '23	Sadie Marinerstein '24
Stevenson School	Pirates 2	Abbie Zhang '24	Quinn Karm '23
Stevenson School	Pirates 3	Patrick O'Hara '27	Sarah Brewster '23
Stevenson School	Pirates 4	Tibet Kilic '24	Tim Zhao '24
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Annika Burns '23	Jason Lester '24
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Julias Glasgow '24	Genevieve Cantin '25
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	Nico Anders '26	Coral Buono '24
The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	Charlie Fine '25	Ary Clark De Castilho '25
The Urban School	Blues	Henry Scalise '26 [1-5]	Arie Kurtzig '26 [1, 3, 5] Kai Classen '24 [2, 4]

Conditions — 09/25/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 79% · Pressure 1017.2 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.3 kn

avg · max 7.4 kn

Gusts to 18.5 kn

From WSW (240°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover56% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1017.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Berkeley: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.17 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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