2023 Norcal 4 Gold Fleet

HostAlameda
Date11/05/2023
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Encinal High School	Jets 3	9	9
2	Redwood	Giants 3	12	12
3	Stevenson School	Pirates 2	17	17
4	Encinal High School	Jets 1	17	17
5	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	19	19
6	Alameda High School	Hornets 1	20	20
7	Encinal High School	Jets 2	23	23
8	Redwood	Giants 1	23	23
9	Redwood	Giants 2	29	29
10	Stevenson School	Pirates 1	38	38
11	Carlmont	The Scots	40	40
12	Alameda High School	Hornets 2	42	42
13	Harker School	Eagles	46	46
14	St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	Varsity	50	50
15	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	50	50
16	Oakland Technical High School	Oakland Tech	52	52
17	Design Tech High School	Dragons 3	53	53
18	Stevenson School	Pirates 3	55	55
19	Design Tech High School	Dragons 4	55	55
20	SF University High School	Red Devils	56	56
21	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	57	57
22	Mountain View High School (CA)	Mountain View	61	61
23	The Urban School	Blues	62	62
24	San Domenico High School	Panthers 2	66	66
25	San Domenico High School	Panthers 1	69	69
26	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	72	72
27	Design Tech High School	Dragons 1	73	73
28	SOTA High School	SOTA	80	80
29	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	81	81
30	Acalanes High School	Dons	84	84
31	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	89	89
32	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	91	91
33	Design Tech High School	Dragons 2	98	98

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Encinal High School	Jets 3	2	3	4	9	Marco Puertas '24 Ava Estilaei '27
Redwood	Giants 3	1	10	1	12	Morgan Headington '24 Niko Mann '26
Stevenson School	Pirates 2	7	4	6	17	Max Mccormick '24 Patrick O'Hara '27
Encinal High School	Jets 1	8	7	2	17	Kyle Nguyen '24 Cyrus Estilaei '27
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	11	5	3	19	Marina Priskich '25 [1-3] Brooke Hiller '25 [1, 3] Mikah Panisik '25 [2]
Alameda High School	Hornets 1	10	1	9	20	Reid Sojka '26 Joby Overton '26
Encinal High School	Jets 2	3	9	11	23	Emi Puertas '27 Oscar Abrons '27
Redwood	Giants 1	16	2	5	23	Mark Xu '26 Gabriella Levi '24
Redwood	Giants 2	14	8	7	29	Nathan Posard '26 Xander Mann '26
Stevenson School	Pirates 1	15	15	8	38	Abbie Zhang '24 Sadie Marinerstein '24
Carlmont	The Scots	6	21	13	40	Ward Brouwer '24 [1-3] Tyler Robinson '27 [1, 3] Karsten Brouwer '27 [2]
Alameda High School	Hornets 2	13	19	10	42	Chase Carson '25 Sabine Lee '25
Harker School	Eagles	5	11	30	46	George Chen '25 Jennifer Chen '27
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	Varsity	9	26	15	50	Selah Dorn '25 Adrian Grantz '25
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	18	12	20	50	Melina Ahrens '27 Ella Schwartz '27
Oakland Technical High School	Oakland Tech	12	14	26	52	Garrett Connorton '27 Wyatte Ezakovich '24
Design Tech High School	Dragons 3	4	25	24	53	Will Kizer '25 Sam Cheng '25
Stevenson School	Pirates 3	21	17	17	55	Tibet Kilic '24 Tyler Hwang '26
Design Tech High School	Dragons 4	25	16	14	55	Skye Crawford '25 Donovan Techel '25
SF University High School	Red Devils	26	18	12	56	James Franzone '27 Jonas Pilkauskas '27
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	19	20	18	57	Jack Wicker '27 Sebastian Gebler '27
Mountain View High School (CA)	Mountain View	29	13	19	61	Liberty Evans '26 Adrian Maciuca '25
The Urban School	Blues	28	6	28	62	Oliver Yeaman '24 Maxwell Woolf '27
San Domenico High School	Panthers 2	27	23	16	66	Praire Press '26 Dylan Song '25
San Domenico High School	Panthers 1	24	24	21	69	Anton Gavrilov '23 Seamus Crain '26
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	22	28	22	72	Milo Sperry '25 [1-3] Coral Buono '24 [1, 3] Lelio Maurillo '25 [2]
Design Tech High School	Dragons 1	17	22	RAF	73	William Jorjarth '27 Sebastian Lin '26
SOTA High School	SOTA	20	31	29	80	Oscar Perry '24 Audrey Corson '24
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	23	33	25	81	Sean Coleman '27 Jake Gillelen '26
Acalanes High School	Dons	DNF	27	23	84	Kaivo Kadai '25 Aria Falahati '27
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	30	32	27	89	Jason Lester '24 Charles Winstead '24
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	31	29	31	91	Stefan Luedtke '24 Sofia Risso '26
Design Tech High School	Dragons 2	DNF	30	DNF	98	John Nix '25 Lorelai Hartman '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A
Acalanes High School Dons	53	53	53
Alameda High School Hornets 1	43	43	43
Alameda High School Hornets 2	44	44	44
Carlmont The Scots	24	24	24
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	8	8	8
Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins	25	25	25
Design Tech High School Dragons 1	30	30	30
Design Tech High School Dragons 2	29	29	29
Design Tech High School Dragons 3	28	28	28
Design Tech High School Dragons 4	27	27	27
Encinal High School Jets 1	41	41	41
Encinal High School Jets 2	46	46	46
Encinal High School Jets 3	45	45	45
Harker School Eagles	22	22	22
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	5	5	5
Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View	32	32	32
Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	51	51	51
Redwood Giants 1	124	124	124
Redwood Giants 2	122	122	122
Redwood Giants 3	121	121	121
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA Varsity	21	21	21
San Domenico High School Panthers 1	16	16	16
San Domenico High School Panthers 2	17	17	17
SOTA High School SOTA	75	75	75
SF University High School Red Devils	1	1	1
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	3	3	3
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	49	49	49
Stevenson School Pirates 1	198	198	198
Stevenson School Pirates 2	197	197	197
Stevenson School Pirates 3	97	97	97
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	80	80	80
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	82	82	82
The Urban School Blues	5	5	5

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Acalanes High School	Dons	Kaivo Kadai '25	Aria Falahati '27
Alameda High School	Hornets 1	Reid Sojka '26	Joby Overton '26
Alameda High School	Hornets 2	Chase Carson '25	Sabine Lee '25
Carlmont	The Scots	Ward Brouwer '24 [1-3]	Tyler Robinson '27 [1, 3] Karsten Brouwer '27 [2]
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	Jack Wicker '27	Sebastian Gebler '27
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	Stefan Luedtke '24	Sofia Risso '26
Design Tech High School	Dragons 1	William Jorjarth '27	Sebastian Lin '26
Design Tech High School	Dragons 2	John Nix '25	Lorelai Hartman '25
Design Tech High School	Dragons 3	Will Kizer '25	Sam Cheng '25
Design Tech High School	Dragons 4	Skye Crawford '25	Donovan Techel '25
Encinal High School	Jets 1	Kyle Nguyen '24	Cyrus Estilaei '27
Encinal High School	Jets 2	Emi Puertas '27	Oscar Abrons '27
Encinal High School	Jets 3	Marco Puertas '24	Ava Estilaei '27
Harker School	Eagles	George Chen '25	Jennifer Chen '27
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	Sean Coleman '27	Jake Gillelen '26
Mountain View High School (CA)	Mountain View	Liberty Evans '26	Adrian Maciuca '25
Oakland Technical High School	Oakland Tech	Garrett Connorton '27	Wyatte Ezakovich '24
Redwood	Giants 1	Mark Xu '26	Gabriella Levi '24
Redwood	Giants 2	Nathan Posard '26	Xander Mann '26
Redwood	Giants 3	Morgan Headington '24	Niko Mann '26
SF University High School	Red Devils	James Franzone '27	Jonas Pilkauskas '27
SOTA High School	SOTA	Oscar Perry '24	Audrey Corson '24
San Domenico High School	Panthers 1	Anton Gavrilov '23	Seamus Crain '26
San Domenico High School	Panthers 2	Praire Press '26	Dylan Song '25
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	Varsity	Selah Dorn '25	Adrian Grantz '25
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	Marina Priskich '25 [1-3]	Brooke Hiller '25 [1, 3] Mikah Panisik '25 [2]
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	Melina Ahrens '27	Ella Schwartz '27
Stevenson School	Pirates 1	Abbie Zhang '24	Sadie Marinerstein '24
Stevenson School	Pirates 2	Max Mccormick '24	Patrick O'Hara '27
Stevenson School	Pirates 3	Tibet Kilic '24	Tyler Hwang '26
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	Jason Lester '24	Charles Winstead '24
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	Milo Sperry '25 [1-3]	Coral Buono '24 [1, 3] Lelio Maurillo '25 [2]
The Urban School	Blues	Oliver Yeaman '24	Maxwell Woolf '27

Conditions — 11/05/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 85% · Pressure 1016.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.4 kn

avg · max 5.7 kn

Gusts to 13.4 kn

From SSW (199°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine6.1 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1016.0 hPa Rain0.06 in

What this breeze does at Alameda — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Alameda in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Alameda by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Alameda, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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