2023 Sea Otter - Silver Fleet

HostPacific Grove/Stevenson
Date10/07/2023
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	12	22	34
2	Harvard-Westlake	Varsity	48	45	93
3	The Nueva School	The Nueva	59	45	104
4	Dos Pueblos	Chargers	60	66	126
5	Aragon High School	Aragon	44	85	129
6	SF University High School	Red Devils	65	64	129
7	Bishop Montgomery High School	Bishop Montgomery	75	58	133
8	San Domenico High School	Panthers	77	59	136
9	Los Alamitos High School	Griffins	31	106	137
10	Miramonte High School	Matadors	31	114	145
11	San Pedro High School	Pirates	82	65	147
12	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	55	102	157
13	Acalanes High School	Dons	118	46	164
14	Carlmont	The Scots	88	81	169
15	Archbishop Riordan	Crusaders	98	76	174
16	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	105	77	182
17	Stevenson School	Pirates	124	60	184
18	Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	138	52	190
19	Design Tech High School	Dragons 2	97	106	203
20	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	88	118	206
21	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	72	142	214
22	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	123	95	218
23	Oakland Technical High School	Oakland Tech	92	134	226
24	Design Tech High School	Dragons 1	127	107	234
25	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	122	126	248
26	Burlingame High School	Burlingame	140	141	281
27	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	126	156	282
28	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	156	128	284
29	The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	137	149	286
30	Pacific Grove High School	Breakers	145	170	315

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	1	2	2	1	4	2	12	Aaron Toy-Lim '26 Natalie Tonkovich '24
Miramonte High School	Matadors	2	11	3	RDG	RDG	RDG	31	Austin Teodorovic '24 Ella Maas '31
Los Alamitos High School	Griffins	5	13	1	2	RDG	RDG	31	Stewart Mccaleb '26 Josh Mee '28
Aragon High School	Aragon	10	1	14	3	10	6	44	Marie Peroulas '29 Gavin Hayes '24
Harvard-Westlake	Varsity	3	4	DSQ	6	1	3	48	Matthew Commons '25 Sean Ozalpasan '25
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	12	9	10	10	9	5	55	Evie Littler '25 [1-6] Charles Winstead '24 [1-2, 5-6] Vaugn Neumann '27 [3-4]
The Nueva School	The Nueva	6	16	5	4	20	8	59	Adam Kan '24 Tibet Saldamli '27
Dos Pueblos	Chargers	4	6	7	9	3	DSQ	60	Porter Murray '26 Leo Korman '26
SF University High School	Red Devils	OCS	7	6	7	5	9	65	Alice Newmeyer '25 [1-6] Audrey Mcbride '26 [1-4] Reeve Char '27 [5-6]
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	22	8	8	5	17	12	72	Jason Chan '26 Tatianna Faragallah '27
Bishop Montgomery High School	Bishop Montgomery	11	5	28	15	6	10	75	Joaquin Desrochers '25 Reese Lieser '25
San Domenico High School	Panthers	OCS	3	9	RAF	2	1	77	Merritt Sellers '26 Alex Collier-Lake '24
San Pedro High School	Pirates	17	20	20	13	8	4	82	Gwen Hildebrand '25 [1-4] Nicholas Parsnik '26 [5-6] Iliana Hernandez '27 [1-2, 5-6] Nicholas Parsnik '26 [3-4]
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	8	14	19	18	15	14	88	Dersen Eddowes '24 Kieran Peterson '27
Carlmont	The Scots	16	12	4	12	23	21	88	Anna Stolyarova '25 [1-6] Tyler Robinson '27 [1-2, 5-6] Leo Leckey '25 [3-4]
Oakland Technical High School	Oakland Tech	24	15	15	11	14	13	92	Garrett Connorton '27 [1-2, 5-6] Marco Ancona '28 [3-4] Marco Ancona '28 [1-2, 5-6] Wyatte Ezakovich '24 [3-4]
Design Tech High School	Dragons 2	15	21	16	8	11	26	97	William Jorjarth '27 Lorelai Hartman '25
Archbishop Riordan	Crusaders	7	10	12	25	27	17	98	Eva Bennett '25 Kaia Burris '27
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	21	18	18	16	7	25	105	Nico Anders '26 Lelio Maurillo '25
Acalanes High School	Dons	14	DSQ	13	21	16	23	118	Kaivo Kadai '25 Aria Falahati '27
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	9	23	26	20	29	15	122	Naomi Lowenthal '24 Mark Novak '28
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	23	25	11	14	22	28	123	Amanda Wheeler '25 Reuben Butt '27
Stevenson School	Pirates	19	24	RDG	17	21	22	124	Tibet Kilic '24 [1-4] Tommy Zewert '26 [5-6] Tyler Hwang '26 [1-4]
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	27	17	21	19	24	18	126	Stefan Luedtke '24 [1-6] Sofia Risso '26 [1-2, 5-6] Olivia Feng '27 [3-4]
Design Tech High School	Dragons 1	13	27	24	DNS	25	7	127	Skye Crawford '25 Donovan Techel '25
The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	25	19	25	26	26	16	137	Charlie Fine '25 Katharine Mackenzie '24
Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	26	29	17	24	13	29	138	Katelyn Chang '27 Lalo Miali '24
Burlingame High School	Burlingame	20	22	22	DNS	18	27	140	Finn Hayes '26 Scarlett Bounds '26
Pacific Grove High School	Breakers	18	26	23	DNS	28	19	145	Kieran Sherlock '25 Charlotte Tilp '27
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	28	28	27	23	30	20	156	Julias Glasgow '24 [1-6] Flynn Rossington '27 [1-2, 5-6] Ronan Corbit '27 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	5	1	1	7	2	6	22	Ryan Tonkovich '26 [1-6] Mila Kane '25 [1-4] Sebastian Gebler '27 [5-6]
Harvard-Westlake	Varsity	1	4	11	17	7	5	45	Helena Salas '25 Mira Goldman '27
The Nueva School	The Nueva	9	2	2	4	5	23	45	Max Kaufman '26 Sasha Gordon '24
Acalanes High School	Dons	8	6	5	3	22	2	46	Molly Connelly '26 Liam Hearn '24
Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	13	8	19	5	4	3	52	Oliver '27 Catalina Brody '24
Bishop Montgomery High School	Bishop Montgomery	12	9	6	10	20	1	58	Joaquin Jimenez '27 Robert Mccloskey '28
San Domenico High School	Panthers	22	11	3	1	11	11	59	Dylan Song '25 [1-2, 5-6] Praire Press '26 [3-4] Praire Press '26 [1-2, 5-6] Seamus Crain '26 [3-4]
Stevenson School	Pirates	18	10	7	6	9	10	60	Aaron Eagle '27 Claire Lee '26
SF University High School	Red Devils	2	3	12	25	18	4	64	James Franzone '27 [1-6] Reeve Char '27 [1-4] Jonas Pilkauskas '27 [5-6]
San Pedro High School	Pirates	3	OCS	13	8	3	7	65	Kennedy Hildebrand '27 Bradley Uyematsu '25
Dos Pueblos	Chargers	7	5	14	22	1	17	66	Quincy Barnwood '26 Henry Janka '26
Archbishop Riordan	Crusaders	14	21	9	12	8	12	76	Nolan Balocki '27 Sophie Bucker '24
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	16	17	8	2	14	20	77	Milo Sperry '25 [1-6] Nola Jesenko '26 [1-2] James Williams '24 [3-6]
Carlmont	The Scots	4	20	RDG	9	25	13	81	Ward Brouwer '24 [1-6] Ansel Koche '28 [1-2, 5-6] Karsten Brouwer '27 [3-4]
Aragon High School	Aragon	6	23	4	14	17	21	85	George Chen '25 Jennifer Chen '27
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	10	13	18	11	21	22	95	Luke Probst '26 [1-6] Sabine Lee '25 [1-4] Jesse Rushing '28 [5-6]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	DNF	7	20	19	6	19	102	Bea Littler '27 Audrey Murguia '27
Los Alamitos High School	Griffins	11	19	23	16	12	25	106	Abigail Fenholt '28 Eric Panebianco '28
Design Tech High School	Dragons 2	20	16	22	21	13	14	106	Mason Mchale '27 Emily Hong '24
Design Tech High School	Dragons 1	RDG	RDG	17	15	10	29	107	Will Kizer '25 John Nix '25
Miramonte High School	Matadors	19	12	28	13	26	16	114	Giulia Delling '26 Sage Balducci '26
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	17	27	27	23	15	9	118	Julia Musial '26 Lada Nosar '26
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	25	15	15	18	29	24	126	Jaiden Jacobs '24 Lucca Jacobs '27
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	24	14	25	DNF	16	18	128	Reid Imwalle '26 Gabe Heller '27
Oakland Technical High School	Oakland Tech	15	18	21	DNS	23	26	134	Hera Handy-Madsen '27 Teagan Ezakovich '27
Burlingame High School	Burlingame	23	22	26	DSQ	24	15	141	Kieran Clarke '26 Nia Raghavan '25
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	21	OCS	DSQ	20	DSQ	8	142	Leland Howard '26 [1-6] Westley Johnson '26 [1-2] George Faragallah '27 [3-6]
The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	27	25	16	24	27	30	149	Lusia Foster '26 Ary Clark De Castilho '25
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	DNF	24	24	DNS	19	27	156	Dashel Tsang '27 [1-6] Luke Wells '27 [1-2, 5-6] Elliot Chai '27 [3-4]
Pacific Grove High School	Breakers	26	26	DNS	DNS	28	28	170	Edward Shelton '27 [1-4] No Show [5-6] James Archer '27 [1-4] No Show [5-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2023 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Acalanes High School Dons	64	64	62	62	60	60
Aragon High School Aragon	63	63	35	35	37	37
Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	62	62	60	60	58	58
Bishop Montgomery High School Bishop Montgomery	61	61	63	63	35	35
Burlingame High School Burlingame	60	60	58	58	56	56
Carlmont The Scots	59	59	61	61	63	63
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	58	58	56	56	54	54
Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins	57	57	59	59	61	61
Design Tech High School Dragons 1	56	56	54	54	52	52
Design Tech High School Dragons 2	55	55	57	57	59	59
Dos Pueblos Chargers	54	54	52	52	50	50
Henry M. Gunn High School Titans	52	52	50	50	48	48
Harvard-Westlake Varsity	53	53	55	55	57	57
The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	51	51	53	53	55	55
Los Alamitos High School Griffins	50	50	48	48	46	46
Miramonte High School Matadors	49	49	51	51	53	53
Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	48	48	46	46	44	44
Pacific Grove High School Breakers	47	47	49	49	51	51
Pacific Palisades Charter High School Pacific Palisades Ch	46	46	44	44	42	42
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	45	45	47	47	49	49
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	44	44	42	42	40	40
San Domenico High School Panthers	43	43	45	45	47	47
San Pedro High School Pirates	42	42	40	40	38	38
SF University High School Red Devils	35	35	37	37	39	39
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	41	41	43	43	45	45
Stevenson School Pirates	40	40	38	38	36	36
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	39	39	41	41	43	43
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	38	38	36	36	64	64
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	37	37	39	39	41	41
The Nueva School The Nueva	36	36	64	64	62	62

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Acalanes High School Dons	63	63	61	61	59	59
Aragon High School Aragon	64	64	36	36	38	38
Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	61	61	59	59	57	57
Bishop Montgomery High School Bishop Montgomery	62	62	64	64	36	36
Burlingame High School Burlingame	59	59	57	57	55	55
Carlmont The Scots	60	60	62	62	64	64
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	57	57	55	55	53	53
Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins	58	58	60	60	62	62
Design Tech High School Dragons 1	55	55	53	53	51	51
Design Tech High School Dragons 2	56	56	58	58	60	60
Dos Pueblos Chargers	53	53	51	51	49	49
Henry M. Gunn High School Titans	51	51	49	49	47	47
Harvard-Westlake Varsity	54	54	56	56	58	58
The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	52	52	54	54	56	56
Los Alamitos High School Griffins	49	49	47	47	45	45
Miramonte High School Matadors	50	50	52	52	54	54
Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	47	47	45	45	43	43
Pacific Grove High School Breakers	48	48	50	50	52	52
Pacific Palisades Charter High School Pacific Palisades Ch	45	45	43	43	41	41
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	46	46	48	48	50	50
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	43	43	41	41	39	39
San Domenico High School Panthers	44	44	46	46	48	48
San Pedro High School Pirates	41	41	39	39	37	37
SF University High School Red Devils	36	36	38	38	40	40
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	42	42	44	44	46	46
Stevenson School Pirates	39	39	37	37	35	35
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	40	40	42	42	44	44
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	37	37	35	35	63	63
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	38	38	40	40	42	42
The Nueva School The Nueva	35	35	63	63	61	61

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Acalanes High School	Kaivo Kadai '25	Aria Falahati '27
Dons	Molly Connelly '26	Liam Hearn '24
Aragon High School	Marie Peroulas '29	Gavin Hayes '24
Aragon	George Chen '25	Jennifer Chen '27
Archbishop Riordan	Eva Bennett '25	Kaia Burris '27
Crusaders	Nolan Balocki '27	Sophie Bucker '24
Bishop Montgomery High School	Joaquin Desrochers '25	Reese Lieser '25
Bishop Montgomery	Joaquin Jimenez '27	Robert Mccloskey '28
Burlingame High School	Finn Hayes '26	Scarlett Bounds '26
Burlingame	Kieran Clarke '26	Nia Raghavan '25
Carlmont	Anna Stolyarova '25 [1-6]	Tyler Robinson '27 [1-2, 5-6] Leo Leckey '25 [3-4]
The Scots	Ward Brouwer '24 [1-6]	Ansel Koche '28 [1-2, 5-6] Karsten Brouwer '27 [3-4]
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Aaron Toy-Lim '26	Natalie Tonkovich '24
Cubs	Ryan Tonkovich '26 [1-6]	Mila Kane '25 [1-4] Sebastian Gebler '27 [5-6]
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Stefan Luedtke '24 [1-6]	Sofia Risso '26 [1-2, 5-6] Olivia Feng '27 [3-4]
Griffins	Dashel Tsang '27 [1-6]	Luke Wells '27 [1-2, 5-6] Elliot Chai '27 [3-4]
Design Tech High School	Skye Crawford '25	Donovan Techel '25
Dragons 1	Will Kizer '25	John Nix '25
Design Tech High School	William Jorjarth '27	Lorelai Hartman '25
Dragons 2	Mason Mchale '27	Emily Hong '24
Dos Pueblos	Porter Murray '26	Leo Korman '26
Chargers	Quincy Barnwood '26	Henry Janka '26
Harvard-Westlake	Matthew Commons '25	Sean Ozalpasan '25
Varsity	Helena Salas '25	Mira Goldman '27
Henry M. Gunn High School	Naomi Lowenthal '24	Mark Novak '28
Titans	Jaiden Jacobs '24	Lucca Jacobs '27
Los Alamitos High School	Stewart Mccaleb '26	Josh Mee '28
Griffins	Abigail Fenholt '28	Eric Panebianco '28
Miramonte High School	Austin Teodorovic '24	Ella Maas '31
Matadors	Giulia Delling '26	Sage Balducci '26
Oakland Technical High School	Garrett Connorton '27 [1-2, 5-6] Marco Ancona '28 [3-4]	Marco Ancona '28 [1-2, 5-6] Wyatte Ezakovich '24 [3-4]
Oakland Tech	Hera Handy-Madsen '27	Teagan Ezakovich '27
Pacific Grove High School	Kieran Sherlock '25	Charlotte Tilp '27
Breakers	Edward Shelton '27 [1-4] No Show [5-6]	James Archer '27 [1-4] No Show [5-6]
Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Katelyn Chang '27	Lalo Miali '24
Pacific Palisades Ch	Oliver '27	Catalina Brody '24
Palos Verdes High School	Jason Chan '26	Tatianna Faragallah '27
Sea Kings	Leland Howard '26 [1-6]	Westley Johnson '26 [1-2] George Faragallah '27 [3-6]
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Dersen Eddowes '24	Kieran Peterson '27
Panthers	Julia Musial '26	Lada Nosar '26
SF University High School	Alice Newmeyer '25 [1-6]	Audrey Mcbride '26 [1-4] Reeve Char '27 [5-6]
Red Devils	James Franzone '27 [1-6]	Reeve Char '27 [1-4] Jonas Pilkauskas '27 [5-6]
San Domenico High School	Merritt Sellers '26	Alex Collier-Lake '24
Panthers	Dylan Song '25 [1-2, 5-6] Praire Press '26 [3-4]	Praire Press '26 [1-2, 5-6] Seamus Crain '26 [3-4]
San Pedro High School	Gwen Hildebrand '25 [1-4] Nicholas Parsnik '26 [5-6]	Iliana Hernandez '27 [1-2, 5-6] Nicholas Parsnik '26 [3-4]
Pirates	Kennedy Hildebrand '27	Bradley Uyematsu '25
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	Amanda Wheeler '25	Reuben Butt '27
St Joseph Notre Dame	Luke Probst '26 [1-6]	Sabine Lee '25 [1-4] Jesse Rushing '28 [5-6]
Stevenson School	Tibet Kilic '24 [1-4] Tommy Zewert '26 [5-6]	Tyler Hwang '26 [1-4]
Pirates	Aaron Eagle '27	Claire Lee '26
Tamalpais High School	Evie Littler '25 [1-6]	Charles Winstead '24 [1-2, 5-6] Vaugn Neumann '27 [3-4]
Red Tailed Hawks 1	Bea Littler '27	Audrey Murguia '27
Tamalpais High School	Julias Glasgow '24 [1-6]	Flynn Rossington '27 [1-2, 5-6] Ronan Corbit '27 [3-4]
Red Tailed Hawks 2	Reid Imwalle '26	Gabe Heller '27
The Bay School of San Francisco	Nico Anders '26	Lelio Maurillo '25
Breakers	Milo Sperry '25 [1-6]	Nola Jesenko '26 [1-2] James Williams '24 [3-6]
The International School of San Francisco	Charlie Fine '25	Katharine Mackenzie '24
Jaguars	Lusia Foster '26	Ary Clark De Castilho '25
The Nueva School	Adam Kan '24	Tibet Saldamli '27
The Nueva	Max Kaufman '26	Sasha Gordon '24

Conditions — 10/07/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 54% · Pressure 1011.6 hPa

Temperature

73°F

↑ 79°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 6.0 kn

Gusts to 15.4 kn

From WNW (298°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1011.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn · W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Pacific Grove/Stevenson: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pacific Grove/Stevenson by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Pacific Grove/Stevenson: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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