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MISSA ILCA 7 Cressy Quals

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Tristan Mcdonald '24 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 16
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Charlie Gish '24 1 8 9 1 1 1 1 22
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Matthew Sexton '24 4 1 7 3 3 3 3 24
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Adam Starck '25 3 5 6 9 5 7 4 39
Worthington Kilbourne Worthington Kilbourne Mason Mattice '24 5 10 3 4 4 4 10 40
New Albany High School New Albany High School Beylan Gode '25 9 6 1 5 8 9 5 43
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Buck Rathbun '24 12 2 5 12 7 5 6 49
Thomas Worthington High School Thomas Worthington High School Finn Mahoney '25 8 3 12 6 6 6 9 50
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Brent Armstrong '25 10 7 8 8 9 8 7 57
Bexley High School Bexley High School Henry Elmore '25 6 9 13 7 10 10 DNF 71
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Henry Feyen '25 15 12 4 11 12 11 8 73
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Jacob Hartong '26 14 15 10 10 11 12 DNF 88
St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Paul Wang '23 7 13 11 13 DNS DSQ DNF 92
John Hersey High School John Hersey High School Tyson Halper '24 11 14 14 14 DNS DSQ DNF 101
New Trier HS New Trier HS Charles Dischner '26 13 11 15 15 DNS DSQ DNF 102

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  15 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Tristan Mcdonald '24Lake Forest High School Scouts 27/72.574.07+1.5192nd → 99th3.73%2.3 / 5.0
2Charlie Gish '24Lake Forest High School Scouts 17/72.952.94−0.0198th → 98th0.026%3.1 / 4.3
3Matthew Sexton '24Lake Forest Academy7/71.333.20+1.8767th → 99th6.21%3.4 / 7.5
4Adam Starck '25St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH7/71.992.03+0.0483rd → 83rd0.043%5.6 / 6.2
5Mason Mattice '24Worthington Kilbourne7/70.921.50+0.5756th → 73rd0.614%5.7 / 8.4
6Beylan Gode '25New Albany High School7/71.751.59−0.1579th → 75th0.146%6.1 / 6.6
7Buck Rathbun '24Rocky River High School7/71.751.18−0.5779th → 65th0.959%7.0 / 6.7
8Finn Mahoney '25Thomas Worthington High School7/70.601.31+0.7142nd → 67th1.122%7.1 / 9.0
9Brent Armstrong '25West Bloomfield High School7/71.251.19−0.0665th → 65th0.059%8.1 / 7.7
10Henry Elmore '25Bexley High School7/70.700.67−0.0345th → 45th0.070%10.1 / 8.9
11Henry Feyen '25East Grand Rapids7/7-0.15-0.47−0.3218th → 11th0.246%10.4 / 10.6
12Jacob Hartong '26Olentangy Liberty High School7/7-0.34-0.80−0.4614th → 6th0.479%12.6 / 10.9
13Paul Wang '23St. Paul Academy (MN)7/70.690.38−0.3145th → 33rd0.298%13.1 / 8.9
14Tyson Halper '24John Hersey High School7/70.74u-0.57−1.3147th → 10th3.1>99%14.4 / 8.7
15Charles Dischner '26New Trier HS7/7-0.29-1.10−0.8015th → 3rd0.799%14.6 / 10.7

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From SW (216°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.3 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1016.9 hPa Rain0.40 in

What this breeze does at Lake Forest Academy/Lake Forest — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Lake Forest Academy/Lake Forest in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Forest Academy/Lake Forest by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Lake Forest Academy/Lake Forest: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →