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PCISA ILCA 6 Boys Qualifier

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Tate Christopher '25 71
2 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Harrison Strom '24 82
3 Branson School Branson School Tyler Yang '25 89
4 Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Owen Fretwell '26 102
5 La Jolla Country Day School La Jolla Country Day School Ben Conroy '24 104
6 Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Michael Sentovich '26 117
7 University High School University High School Qi Yan '26 122
8 San Marcos High School San Marcos High School Sam Wells '26 133
9 Le Jardin Acadamy Le Jardin Acadamy Michael Kai Hochart '26 140 MRP
10 La Jolla High School La Jolla High School Efe Derman '26 145
11 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Kousei Hatter '27 177
12 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Caleb Everett '26 184
13 Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Dylan Seawards '26 189
14 Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Liam Kaseburg '26 196
15 Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Brady Kennedy '25 199
16 Punahou School Punahou School William Bagley '25 202 MRP
17 San Marcos High School San Marcos High School Teo Lee '26 214
18 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Preston Miller '24 229
19 San Marcos High School San Marcos High School Ryan Wells '26 238
20 Miners 2 Miners 2 Miners 2 243 MRP
21 Los Alamitos High School Los Alamitos High School Stewart Mccaleb '26 251
22 La Jolla High School La Jolla High School Alex Kamahi '26 258
23 Ravens Ravens Ravens 296 MRP
24 Blue and Gold Blue and Gold Sam Suddath '26 302
25 Miners 1 Miners 1 Miners 1 370 MRP
26 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Oscar Parzen '26 392
27 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Ryan Downey '25 392
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Tate Christopher '25 2 1 8 14 3 16 1 2 17 1 2 2 1 1 71
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Harrison Strom '24 6 3 4 8 2 9 13 1 6 3 7 11 3 6 82
Branson School Branson School Tyler Yang '25 9 4 7 3 7 2 4 15 8 5 9 7 6 3 89
Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Owen Fretwell '26 8 8 12 6 12 5 8 9 2 9 3 1 8 11 102
La Jolla Country Day School La Jolla Country Day School Ben Conroy '24 3 5 2 4 6 14 7 4 1 15 20 9 9 5 104
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Michael Sentovich '26 12 16 10 9 9 10 15 12 4 8 1 4 5 2 117
University High School University High School Qi Yan '26 16 2 5 5 18 7 3 17 5 6 10 8 12 8 122
San Marcos High School San Marcos High School Sam Wells '26 21 17 9 2 1 4 2 13 20 2 8 6 13 15 133
Le Jardin Acadamy Le Jardin Acadamy Michael Kai Hochart '26 4 9 11 10 15 11 5 6 15 7 5 10 2 10 140 MRP
La Jolla High School La Jolla High School Efe Derman '26 17 10 3 12 14 15 14 3 9 4 4 14 10 16 145
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Kousei Hatter '27 1 12 16 1 10 18 6 16 13 10 16 18 18 22 177
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Caleb Everett '26 11 23 15 13 8 8 23 5 10 13 15 5 21 14 184
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Dylan Seawards '26 7 22 18 20 4 1 16 11 21 12 18 3 15 21 189
Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Liam Kaseburg '26 14 21 1 7 24 13 11 7 3 14 22 16 19 24 196
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Brady Kennedy '25 13 19 21 17 22 20 19 14 14 11 6 12 7 4 199
Punahou School Punahou School William Bagley '25 5 13 6 23 13 21 10 10 16 16 12 13 17 7 202 MRP
San Marcos High School San Marcos High School Teo Lee '26 15 20 19 15 5 3 9 20 19 22 17 23 14 13 214
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Preston Miller '24 10 11 14 16 20 12 12 8 24 18 21 20 23 20 229
San Marcos High School San Marcos High School Ryan Wells '26 22 15 24 11 11 6 21 24 7 21 23 15 20 18 238
Miners 2 Miners 2 Miners 2 18 7 13 21 16 19 17 18 22 17 13 22 11 9 243 MRP
Los Alamitos High School Los Alamitos High School Stewart Mccaleb '26 23 6 22 19 21 25 24 22 18 23 11 21 4 12 251
La Jolla High School La Jolla High School Alex Kamahi '26 20 14 17 22 23 23 20 21 11 19 14 19 16 19 258
Ravens Ravens Ravens 19 18 20 18 19 24 22 23 12 20 19 17 22 23 296 MRP
Blue and Gold Blue and Gold Sam Suddath '26 24 24 23 24 17 17 18 19 23 24 24 24 24 17 302
Miners 1 Miners 1 Miners 1 25 25 25 25 25 22 25 DNS 25 25 25 25 25 25 370 MRP
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Oscar Parzen '26 RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF 392
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Ryan Downey '25 RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF 392
Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Miners 1Miners 1 Miners 1194589194589194589194589194589194589194589194589194589194589194589194589194589194589
Miners 2Miners 2 Miners 2197575197575197575197575197575197575197575197575197575197575197575197575197575197575
RavensRavens Ravens156813156813156813156813156813156813156813156813156813156813156813156813156813156813

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  27 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Tate Christopher '25Mater Dei High School Monarchs 114/143.243.81+0.5799th → 99th1.54%5.1 / 9.5
2Harrison Strom '24Point Loma High School Pointers 214/142.873.83+0.9797th → 99th4.24%5.9 / 10.7
3Tyler Yang '25Branson School14/142.23u3.72+1.4987th → 99th9.12%6.4 / 13.3
4Owen Fretwell '26Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 214/142.563.46+0.9192nd → 99th3.84%7.3 / 12.1
5Ben Conroy '24La Jolla Country Day School14/142.513.23+0.7292nd → 99th2.49%7.4 / 12.3
6Michael Sentovich '26Corona del Mar High School14/142.883.14+0.2697th → 99th0.422%8.4 / 10.8
7Michael Kai Hochart '26Le Jardin Acadamy14/142.30u3.19+0.8988th → 99th3.812%8.6 / 13.1
8Qi Yan '26University High School14/142.69u3.00+0.3095th → 98th0.524%8.7 / 11.7
9Sam Wells '26San Marcos High School Knights 314/142.392.69+0.3190th → 95th0.520%9.5 / 12.8
10Efe Derman '26La Jolla High School Vikings 214/142.012.79+0.7883rd → 96th3.016%10.4 / 14.3
11Kousei Hatter '27Point Loma High School Pointers 414/142.632.20−0.4394th → 86th1.262%12.6 / 11.8
12William Bagley '25Punahou School14/142.072.21+0.1484th → 86th0.140%13.0 / 14.0
13Caleb Everett '26The Bay School of San Francisco14/141.872.08+0.2181st → 84th0.236%13.1 / 14.6
14Dylan Seawards '26Santa Barbara High School14/141.542.04+0.5074th → 83rd1.326%13.5 / 16.1
15Liam Kaseburg '26Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 114/141.941.78−0.1682nd → 80th0.146%14.0 / 14.4
16Brady Kennedy '25Mater Dei High School Monarchs 214/141.752.04+0.2979th → 83rd0.540%14.2 / 15.3
17Teo Lee '26San Marcos High School Knights 114/142.001.77−0.2383rd → 79th0.359%15.3 / 14.3
19Preston Miller '24Point Loma High School Pointers 314/140.351.68+1.3332nd → 77th7.812%16.4 / 20.2
20Ryan Wells '26San Marcos High School Knights 214/141.351.33−0.0268th → 67th0.051%17.0 / 16.8
21Stewart Mccaleb '26Los Alamitos High School14/141.851.12−0.7381st → 61st3.379%17.9 / 14.8
22Alex Kamahi '26La Jolla High School Vikings 114/141.221.47+0.2665th → 72nd0.461%18.4 / 17.3
24Sam Suddath '26Blue and Gold14/140.680.82+0.1445th → 51st0.174%21.6 / 19.1
26Oscar Parzen '26Point Loma High School Pointers 514/142.80——96th → —0.0>99%28.0 / 11.1
26Ryan Downey '25Point Loma High School Pointers 114/141.71——78th → —0.0>99%28.0 / 15.5

Conditions — 09/23/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1016.1 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.4 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From S (190°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1016.1 hPa

What this breeze does at San Marcos/Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at San Marcos/Santa Barbara in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at San Marcos/Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at San Marcos/Santa Barbara: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →