2024 NP3 (Varsity)

HostCape Fear Academy/Emsley A Laney/Eugene Ashley/John T. Hoggard
Date11/16/2024
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	6	28	34
2	VIMSIA	Volts	18	34	52
3	Antilles School	Hurricanes	31	31	62
4	Wando High School	Warriors	53	34	87
5	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	54	38	92
6	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	36	59	95
7	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	60	38	98
8	Porter-Gaud School	Cyclones	62	37	99
9	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	71	45	116
10	Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	75	59	134
11	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	64	83	147
12	Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	81	73	154
13	New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	66	89	155
14	Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw Warriors	75	80	155
15	Hough High School	Huskies	82	74	156
16	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	80	91	171
17	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	71	105	176
18	Emsley A Laney High School	Emsley A Laney	106	83	189
19	Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	113	80	193
20	Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	99	101	200

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	1	1	1	1	1	1	6	James Pine '26 Charlotte Casey '25
VIMSIA	Volts	3	2	5	3	3	2	18	Mariana Brunt '26 Mcrae Williams '27
Antilles School	Hurricanes	2	5	3	4	11	6	31	Alejo Diblasi '25 Halina Diehl '26
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	4	4	14	2	8	4	36	Finn Bell '26 Eleanor Wright '26
Wando High School	Warriors	DNF	6	7	11	5	3	53	Madeleine Harris '25 [1-6] Jack Lima '27 [1-3] Stella Fletcher '27 [4-6]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	DNF	12	2	7	2	10	54	Mason Fisher '26 Elizabeth Hample '25
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	DNF	8	8	6	6	11	60	Mcrae Busey '25 Maya Jones '26
Porter-Gaud School	Cyclones	6	7	OCS	13	7	8	62	Walker Glenn '26 [1-6] Evan Nussbaum '26 [1-4] Robertson Allen '26 [5-6]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	DNF	15	4	15	4	5	64	Narayan Schmoyer '26 Grant Gerst '27
New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	7	10	9	12	12	16	66	Graham Foster '26 [1-6] Abbie Poindexter '28 [1-4] Fiona Sommers '26 [5-6]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	5	13	17	9	20	7	71	Finn Robinson '25 John Hoyos '26
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	11	3	13	10	13	DNS	71	Jackson Fisher '26 Beckett Holley '25
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw Warriors	10	18	10	14	10	13	75	Brighton Turner '27 Caroline Keyes '27
Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	12	17	11	5	9	DNF	75	Griffin Frye Mccoy '26 Wade Finger '30
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	8	14	12	18	14	14	80	John Bellissimo '25 [1-6] Camden Majocha '26 [1-2] Brooks Fausett '26 [3-4] Carli Dixon '26 [5-6]
Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	9	9	19	20	15	9	81	Ian Sternkopf '27 Hailey Bagnoni '28
Hough High School	Huskies	DNF	11	6	8	19	17	82	Barry Kaplan '27 Connor Wemple '27
Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	DNF	16	15	19	16	12	99	Samuel Sablotsky '26 Mary Pinkston '29
Emsley A Laney High School	Emsley A Laney	DNF	20	16	16	18	15	106	Sam Warner '27 Ayden White '26
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	DNF	19	18	17	17	DNS	113	Ray Mcdonald '25 Trask Bostic '28

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	12	2	4	5	2	3	28	Gresham Kinard '26 [1-6] Jacqueline Casey '27 [1-4] Anna Connolly '26 [5-6]
Antilles School	Hurricanes	4	1	DSQ	1	3	1	31	Cobia Fagan '28 Dominika Skoda '27
VIMSIA	Volts	1	8	5	2	10	8	34	Rush Sudziarski '28 Ellis Wisehart '26
Wando High School	Warriors	10	4	1	12	1	6	34	Lilianna Harris '27 [1-6] Jack Mccluskey '27 [1-3, 5-6] Matthew Fisher '27 [4]
Porter-Gaud School	Cyclones	3	5	3	10	6	10	37	Thomas Weil '27 [1-6] Tucker Payne '27 [1-4] Granger Osborne '26 [5-6]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	2	11	8	3	9	5	38	Stella Herford '26 [1-6] Julia Dinzelbacher '25 [1-3] Nathan Allen '28 [4-6]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	6	3	9	4	14	2	38	William Mccarty '26 [1-6] Hank Houseal '27 [1-3] Clayton Kotz '27 [4-6]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	7	6	2	6	7	17	45	Noah Dailey '27 Georgia Montgomery '26
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	5	14	6	18	4	12	59	Emmy Teer '25 George Adams '25
Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	14	7	14	15	5	4	59	Ryden Jarvis '27 Carter Finger '27
Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	8	17	11	14	8	15	73	Hailey Bagnoni '28 [1-3] Ian Sternkopf '27 [4-6] Ian Sternkopf '27 [1-3] Hailey Bagnoni '28 [4-6]
Hough High School	Huskies	11	9	10	9	OCS	14	74	Camden Cockrill '28 [1-6] Gabriel Fusco '28 [1-3] Nash Beshears '27 [4-6]
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	9	13	17	13	17	11	80	Max Hammer '27 Macy Stengle '25
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw Warriors	15	20	15	8	13	9	80	Stevie Paris '25 Elise Wahl '25
Emsley A Laney High School	Emsley A Laney	13	12	13	7	18	20	83	Dylan Wright '27 Bodie Reider '26
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	17	15	7	20	11	13	83	Wesley Bassett '28 [1-3] Allson Foess '26 [4-6] Allson Foess '26 [1-3] Wesley Bassett '28 [4-6]
New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	20	16	19	11	16	7	89	Maegon Voegtlin '25 [1-4] Izzy Humphries '25 [5-6] Fiona Sommers '26 [1-4] Maegon Voegtlin '25 [5-6]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	18	10	16	16	15	16	91	Camden Majocha '26 Allison Campbell '28
Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	16	18	12	17	19	19	101	Levi Sablotsky '28 [1-6] Jack Stambough '28 [1-3] Caroline Oliverio '27 [4-6]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	19	19	18	19	12	18	105	Alexander Lisowski '25 [1-6] Kirt Harrington '26 [1-3] Andrew Kubler '28 [4-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.230+0.23

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	1	1	1	3	3	3
Antilles School Hurricanes	2	2	2	4	4	4
Aquinas High School Fighting Irish	3	3	3	5	5	5
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	4	4	4	6	6	6
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	5	5	5	7	7	7
Emsley A Laney High School Emsley A Laney	6	6	6	8	8	8
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	7	7	7	9	9	9
Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles	8	8	8	10	10	10
Hough High School Huskies	9	9	9	11	11	11
James Island Charter High School Varsity	10	10	10	171	171	171
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	11	11	11	12	12	12
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	171	171	171	13	13	13
Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	12	12	12	14	14	14
New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing	13	13	13	15	15	15
VIMSIA Volts	16	16	16	18	18	18
Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses	14	14	14	3907	3907	3907
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	15	15	15	16	16	16
Porter-Gaud School Cyclones	3907	3907	3907	17	17	17
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw Warriors	17	17	17	1	1	1
Wando High School Warriors	18	18	18	2	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	2	2	2	4	4	4
Antilles School Hurricanes	3	3	3	5	5	5
Aquinas High School Fighting Irish	4	4	4	6	6	6
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	5	5	5	7	7	7
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	6	6	6	8	8	8
Emsley A Laney High School Emsley A Laney	7	7	7	9	9	9
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	8	8	8	10	10	10
Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles	9	9	9	11	11	11
Hough High School Huskies	10	10	10	171	171	171
James Island Charter High School Varsity	11	11	11	12	12	12
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	171	171	171	13	13	13
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	12	12	12	14	14	14
Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	13	13	13	15	15	15
New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing	14	14	14	3907	3907	3907
VIMSIA Volts	17	17	17	1	1	1
Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses	15	15	15	16	16	16
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	3907	3907	3907	17	17	17
Porter-Gaud School Cyclones	16	16	16	18	18	18
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw Warriors	18	18	18	2	2	2
Wando High School Warriors	1	1	1	3	3	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Mason Fisher '26	Elizabeth Hample '25
Raptors A	William Mccarty '26 [1-6]	Hank Houseal '27 [1-3] Clayton Kotz '27 [4-6]
Antilles School	Alejo Diblasi '25	Halina Diehl '26
Hurricanes	Cobia Fagan '28	Dominika Skoda '27
Aquinas High School	Ian Sternkopf '27	Hailey Bagnoni '28
Fighting Irish	Hailey Bagnoni '28 [1-3] Ian Sternkopf '27 [4-6]	Ian Sternkopf '27 [1-3] Hailey Bagnoni '28 [4-6]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Finn Robinson '25	John Hoyos '26
Bishop Kenny	Alexander Lisowski '25 [1-6]	Kirt Harrington '26 [1-3] Andrew Kubler '28 [4-6]
Cape Fear Academy	Ray Mcdonald '25	Trask Bostic '28
CFA Varsity	Max Hammer '27	Macy Stengle '25
Emsley A Laney High School	Sam Warner '27	Ayden White '26
Emsley A Laney	Dylan Wright '27	Bodie Reider '26
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Mcrae Busey '25	Maya Jones '26
ESJ	Stella Herford '26 [1-6]	Julia Dinzelbacher '25 [1-3] Nathan Allen '28 [4-6]
Eugene Ashley High School	Griffin Frye Mccoy '26	Wade Finger '30
Screaming Eagles	Ryden Jarvis '27	Carter Finger '27
Hough High School	Barry Kaplan '27	Connor Wemple '27
Huskies	Camden Cockrill '28 [1-6]	Gabriel Fusco '28 [1-3] Nash Beshears '27 [4-6]
James Island Charter High School	Jackson Fisher '26	Beckett Holley '25
Varsity	Noah Dailey '27	Georgia Montgomery '26
John T. Hoggard High School	Finn Bell '26	Eleanor Wright '26
Vikings Varsity	Emmy Teer '25	George Adams '25
Lake Norman High School	John Bellissimo '25 [1-6]	Camden Majocha '26 [1-2] Brooks Fausett '26 [3-4] Carli Dixon '26 [5-6]
Wildcats	Camden Majocha '26	Allison Campbell '28
Lucy Beckham High School	James Pine '26	Charlotte Casey '25
Bengals	Gresham Kinard '26 [1-6]	Jacqueline Casey '27 [1-4] Anna Connolly '26 [5-6]
New Bern High School	Graham Foster '26 [1-6]	Abbie Poindexter '28 [1-4] Fiona Sommers '26 [5-6]
NB Bears Sailing	Maegon Voegtlin '25 [1-4] Izzy Humphries '25 [5-6]	Fiona Sommers '26 [1-4] Maegon Voegtlin '25 [5-6]
Philip Simmons High School	Samuel Sablotsky '26	Mary Pinkston '29
Iron Horses	Levi Sablotsky '28 [1-6]	Jack Stambough '28 [1-3] Caroline Oliverio '27 [4-6]
Pine Lake Prep	Narayan Schmoyer '26	Grant Gerst '27
Varsity	Wesley Bassett '28 [1-3] Allson Foess '26 [4-6]	Allson Foess '26 [1-3] Wesley Bassett '28 [4-6]
Porter-Gaud School	Walker Glenn '26 [1-6]	Evan Nussbaum '26 [1-4] Robertson Allen '26 [5-6]
Cyclones	Thomas Weil '27 [1-6]	Tucker Payne '27 [1-4] Granger Osborne '26 [5-6]
VIMSIA	Mariana Brunt '26	Mcrae Williams '27
Volts	Rush Sudziarski '28	Ellis Wisehart '26
Waccamaw High School	Brighton Turner '27	Caroline Keyes '27
Waccamaw Warriors	Stevie Paris '25	Elise Wahl '25
Wando High School	Madeleine Harris '25 [1-6]	Jack Lima '27 [1-3] Stella Fletcher '27 [4-6]
Warriors	Lilianna Harris '27 [1-6]	Jack Mccluskey '27 [1-3, 5-6] Matthew Fisher '27 [4]

Conditions — 11/16/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.8 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 16.9 kn

From SE (145°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1018.7 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn* · NW 5 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Cape Fear Academy/Emsley A Laney/Eugene Ashley/John T. Hoggard: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.08

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cape Fear Academy/Emsley A Laney/Eugene Ashley/John T. Hoggard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Cape Fear Academy/Emsley A Laney/Eugene Ashley/John T. Hoggard, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu