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2024 SAISA Cressy Qualifier ILCA 6 Male

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School Jake Homberger '27 41
2 Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Nathan Pine '26 78
3 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Cole Fanchi '26 93
4 Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School James Pine '26 96
5 Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School David Mateo Coates '27 100
6 Calvary Christian Academy Calvary Christian Academy Emmett Debs '26 131
7 Miami Palmetto Senior High School Miami Palmetto Senior High School Jonathon Schwartz '25 144
8 The Classical Academy of Sarasota The Classical Academy of Sarasota Jackson Wilcox '27 145
9 Clearwater Central Catholic High School Clearwater Central Catholic High School Jan Mistak '25 156
10 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Alfonso Lanseros '27 184
11 School for Advanced Studies School for Advanced Studies David Coates '27 188
12 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Will Barnhart '25 189
13 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Ryder Ellis '27 192
14 Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Beck Brill '27 195
15 MAST Academy MAST Academy Oliver Holt '26 197
16 Antilles School Antilles School Robert Richards '25 217
17 Miami Beach Senior High School Miami Beach Senior High School Miami Beach Senior 221
18 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School John Hartney '28 241
19 MAST Academy MAST Academy Davide Bazzoni '26 254
20 Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Leonardo Tarzani '27 254
21 Riverview High School Riverview High School Raphael Ducrey '30 262
22 Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy 267
23 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Antonio De Andrade '27 271
24 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Brayden Zawyer '28 274
25 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Miles Julien '27 280
26 State College of Florida Collegiate School State College of Florida Collegiate School Griffin Roberts '27 349
27 Tampa Catholic Tampa Catholic Blake Vincent '27 362
28 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Pierce Weber '27 372
29 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Emilio '28 382
30 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Fynn Du Plessis '26 428
31 Suncoast Polytechnical High School Suncoast Polytechnical High School Dominic Thomas '28 438
32 MAST Academy MAST Academy Theodore Mccormick '26 441
33 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Afonso Cruz '26 485
34 MAST Academy MAST Academy Nathaniel Mccormick '28 488
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School Jake Homberger '27 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 13 4 2 4 1 6 41
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Nathan Pine '26 6 4 3 2 8 13 10 6 2 1 1 17 3 2 78
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Cole Fanchi '26 5 7 14 7 7 4 3 2 20 12 7 2 2 1 93
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School James Pine '26 1 2 12 9 13 3 4 7 1 3 20 3 15 3 96
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School David Mateo Coates '27 11 3 4 11 2 2 2 9 6 2 8 1 12 27 100
Calvary Christian Academy Calvary Christian Academy Emmett Debs '26 16 10 16 15 4 14 17 1 8 5 9 5 6 5 131
Miami Palmetto Senior High School Miami Palmetto Senior High School Jonathon Schwartz '25 3 9 19 13 5 8 13 13 7 13 6 19 7 9 144
The Classical Academy of Sarasota The Classical Academy of Sarasota Jackson Wilcox '27 7 5 2 3 16 15 14 5 3 7 13 8 24 23 145
Clearwater Central Catholic High School Clearwater Central Catholic High School Jan Mistak '25 21 18 7 10 18 11 8 4 9 11 3 7 8 21 156
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Alfonso Lanseros '27 23 DNS 13 19 3 10 20 8 11 6 5 10 10 11 184
School for Advanced Studies School for Advanced Studies David Coates '27 8 12 8 16 6 16 7 15 14 23 29 13 11 10 188
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Will Barnhart '25 9 21 10 14 14 5 9 19 23 9 11 22 9 14 189
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Ryder Ellis '27 12 13 6 5 9 19 11 18 17 14 4 24 23 17 192
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Beck Brill '27 19 8 9 8 11 7 28 27 12 8 18 9 18 13 195
MAST Academy MAST Academy Oliver Holt '26 13 11 5 17 12 20 6 20 22 20 14 15 4 18 197
Antilles School Antilles School Robert Richards '25 4 20 18 4 26 12 12 23 21 17 10 25 5 20 217
Miami Beach Senior High School Miami Beach Senior High School Miami Beach Senior 14 14 15 6 23 9 5 16 18 18 15 20 19 29 221
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School John Hartney '28 18 23 25 22 17 22 15 11 4 27 16 12 25 4 241
MAST Academy MAST Academy Davide Bazzoni '26 15 22 23 21 10 23 16 17 25 21 17 16 20 8 254
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Leonardo Tarzani '27 20 25 24 26 20 26 25 14 5 15 12 6 21 15 254
Riverview High School Riverview High School Raphael Ducrey '30 26 15 20 23 19 18 24 21 10 10 26 11 17 22 262
Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy 10 6 11 12 15 6 DNS DNS 19 29 27 23 13 26 267
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Antonio De Andrade '27 24 16 17 20 21 21 21 12 15 16 24 18 22 24 271
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Brayden Zawyer '28 25 19 22 25 24 24 22 10 16 19 19 21 16 12 274
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Miles Julien '27 17 17 21 18 22 17 19 25 28 26 23 14 14 19 280
State College of Florida Collegiate School State College of Florida Collegiate School Griffin Roberts '27 32 26 26 24 28 30 18 28 27 28 22 27 26 7 349
Tampa Catholic Tampa Catholic Blake Vincent '27 28 27 29 27 25 25 23 24 24 24 21 29 28 28 362
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Pierce Weber '27 22 24 27 28 27 27 27 29 26 25 25 28 27 30 372
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Emilio '28 27 29 28 29 29 28 26 31 31 22 31 26 29 16 382
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Fynn Du Plessis '26 31 28 30 30 31 29 30 30 32 32 32 31 31 31 428
Suncoast Polytechnical High School Suncoast Polytechnical High School Dominic Thomas '28 34 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 22 29 30 28 30 30 25 438
MAST Academy MAST Academy Theodore Mccormick '26 29 30 DNS DNS 30 31 29 26 30 31 30 DNS DNS DNS 441
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Afonso Cruz '26 30 DNS DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 485
MAST Academy MAST Academy Nathaniel Mccormick '28 33 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 488
Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Miami Beach Senior High SchoolMiami Beach Senior High School Miami Beach Senior223315223315223315223315223315223315223315223315223315223315223315223315223315223315
Out-of Door AcademyOut-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy224168224168224168224168224168224168224168224168224168224168224168224168224168224168

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  34 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Jake Homberger '27William T. Dwyer High School14/142.925.66+2.7498th → 99th22.7<1%2.9 / 13.2
2Nathan Pine '26Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 214/143.474.35+0.8899th → 99th3.53%5.6 / 10.9
3Cole Fanchi '26St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 114/143.614.03+0.4199th → 99th0.818%6.6 / 10.6
4James Pine '26Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 114/144.073.92−0.1599th → 99th0.131%6.9 / 8.5
5David Mateo Coates '27Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 314/143.143.70+0.5699th → 99th1.510%7.1 / 12.4
6Emmett Debs '26Calvary Christian Academy14/142.173.51+1.3385th → 99th7.75%9.4 / 16.8
7Jonathon Schwartz '25Miami Palmetto Senior High School14/142.61u3.34+0.7294th → 99th2.617%10.3 / 14.7
8Jackson Wilcox '27The Classical Academy of Sarasota14/143.02u3.11+0.0898th → 99th0.030%10.4 / 12.9
9Jan Mistak '25Clearwater Central Catholic High School14/142.593.12+0.5293rd → 99th1.422%11.1 / 14.9
10Alfonso Lanseros '27Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 214/142.233.04+0.8187th → 99th3.024%13.1 / 16.6
11David Coates '27School for Advanced Studies14/143.42u2.52−0.9099th → 92nd5.372%13.4 / 11.3
12Will Barnhart '25Westminster Christian School14/142.372.74+0.3889th → 95th0.833%13.5 / 15.9
13Ryder Ellis '27St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 114/141.552.71+1.1674th → 95th6.210%13.7 / 19.7
14Beck Brill '27Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 214/142.932.27−0.6698th → 88th2.660%13.9 / 13.3
15Oliver Holt '26MAST Academy Mast Academy 414/142.222.71+0.4987th → 95th1.331%14.1 / 16.5
16Robert Richards '25Antilles School14/142.522.23−0.2992nd → 87th0.555%15.5 / 15.2
18John Hartney '28St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 214/142.032.00−0.0383rd → 83rd0.050%17.2 / 17.3
19Davide Bazzoni '26MAST Academy Mast Academy 114/142.112.09−0.0284th → 84th0.059%18.1 / 17.1
19Leonardo Tarzani '27Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 114/142.121.79−0.3384th → 80th0.760%18.1 / 17.1
21Raphael Ducrey '30Riverview High School14/140.70u2.05+1.3545th → 83rd8.114%18.7 / 23.5
23Antonio De Andrade '27Ransom Everglades School Raiders 114/142.012.04+0.0383rd → 83rd0.063%19.4 / 17.8
24Brayden Zawyer '28Ransom Everglades School Raiders 214/142.271.85−0.4288th → 81st1.275%19.6 / 16.4
25Miles Julien '27Pine Crest School14/142.121.82−0.3084th → 80th0.674%20.0 / 17.0
26Griffin Roberts '27State College of Florida Collegiate School14/140.89u0.72−0.1754th → 46th0.267%24.9 / 22.7
27Blake Vincent '27Tampa Catholic14/141.12u0.76−0.3561st → 49th0.883%25.9 / 21.6
28Pierce Weber '27St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 214/141.260.67−0.5966th → 45th2.290%26.6 / 20.9
29Emilio '28St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 414/140.710.04−0.6746th → 23rd2.581%27.3 / 23.5
30Fynn Du Plessis '26St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 314/14-0.03u-1.92−1.8921st → 1st10.190%30.6 / 26.1
31Dominic Thomas '28Suncoast Polytechnical High School14/140.69u-0.11−0.8045th → 19th2.099%31.3 / 23.5
32Theodore Mccormick '26MAST Academy Mast Academy 314/140.37-0.48−0.8533rd → 11th2.498%31.5 / 24.8
33Afonso Cruz '26Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 114/141.140.14−1.0062nd → 26th0.5>99%34.6 / 21.6
34Nathaniel Mccormick '28MAST Academy Mast Academy 214/14-0.18-0.64−0.4617th → 9th0.1>99%34.9 / 26.8

Conditions — 10/19/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1020.1 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 78°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
18.1 kn
avg  ·  max 19.6 kn
Gusts to 35.2 kn
From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1020.1 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Key Biscayne Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 18 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Key Biscayne Yacht Club in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Key Biscayne Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Key Biscayne Yacht Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →