| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rainer High School | Esther Ireland '25 | 14 |
| 2 |  |
Juanita High School | Kaitlyn Beaver '25 | 15 |
| 3 |  |
Olympia High School | Simone Reck '27 | 30 |
| 4 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Charlotte Cheng-Sun '26 | 35 |
| 5 |  |
Orcas High School | Dagny Kruger '25 | 59 |
| 6 | |
Orcas High School | Lola Walker '26 | 63 |
| 7 |  |
Capital High School | Siri Biswas '28 | 67 |
| 8 |  |
Newport High School (WA) | Hailey Li '26 | 70 |
| 9 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Hannah Shorr '26 | 74 |
| 10 | |
Bainbridge High School | Ella Baker '27 | 85 |
| 11 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tru Jackson '27 | 91 |
| 12 | |
Newport High School (WA) | Sahana Samrat '27 | 102 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rainer High School | Esther Ireland '25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
|
Juanita High School | Kaitlyn Beaver '25 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
|
Olympia High School | Simone Reck '27 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 30 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Charlotte Cheng-Sun '26 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 35 |
|
Orcas High School | Dagny Kruger '25 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 59 |
|
Orcas High School | Lola Walker '26 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 63 |
|
Capital High School | Siri Biswas '28 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 67 |
|
Newport High School (WA) | Hailey Li '26 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 70 |
|
Roosevelt High School | Hannah Shorr '26 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | DNS | DNS | 74 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Ella Baker '27 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 9 | DNF | 5 | 10 | 85 |
|
Gig Harbor High School | Tru Jackson '27 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 91 |
|
Newport High School (WA) | Sahana Samrat '27 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 102 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esther Ireland '25 | Rainer High School | 9/9 | 1.88 | 4.37 | +2.49 | 81st → 99th | 9.5 | <1% | 1.6 / 4.5 |
| 2 | Kaitlyn Beaver '25 | Juanita High School | 9/9 | 1.83 | 4.13 | +2.30 | 81st → 99th | 8.6 | <1% | 1.7 / 4.6 |
| 3 | Simone Reck '27 | Olympia High School | 9/9 | 1.23 | 2.33 | +1.10 | 65th → 89th | 3.0 | 10% | 3.3 / 5.7 |
| 4 | Charlotte Cheng-Sun '26 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | 9/9 | 1.18 | 2.04 | +0.86 | 65th → 83rd | 2.0 | 18% | 3.9 / 5.7 |
| 5 | Dagny Kruger '25 | Orcas High School Vikings 2 | 9/9 | 0.89 | 0.65 | −0.24 | 53rd → 44th | 0.2 | 61% | 6.6 / 6.2 |
| 6 | Lola Walker '26 | Orcas High School Vikings 1 | 9/9 | 0.56 | 0.53 | −0.03 | 41st → 39th | 0.0 | 57% | 7.0 / 6.7 |
| 7 | Siri Biswas '28 | Capital High School | 9/9 | 0.42 | 0.42 | −0.00 | 34th → 34th | 0.0 | 60% | 7.4 / 7.0 |
| 8 | Hailey Li '26 | Newport High School (WA) Newport (WA) 2 | 9/9 | 0.71u | 0.15 | −0.56 | 46th → 26th | 1.2 | 77% | 7.8 / 6.5 |
| 9 | Hannah Shorr '26 | Roosevelt High School | 9/9 | 0.61 | 0.47 | −0.13 | 42nd → 36th | 0.0 | 80% | 8.2 / 6.7 |
| 10 | Ella Baker '27 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 9/9 | -0.01 | -0.29 | −0.28 | 21st → 15th | 0.2 | 83% | 9.4 / 7.7 |
| 11 | Tru Jackson '27 | Gig Harbor High School | 9/9 | -0.72 | -1.13 | −0.42 | 7th → 3rd | 0.4 | 79% | 10.1 / 8.8 |
| 12 | Sahana Samrat '27 | Newport High School (WA) Newport (WA) 1 | 9/9 | -0.23u | -2.57 | −2.34 | 15th → 1st | 11.8 | 99% | 11.3 / 8.1 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
