Rainier High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.57 (fleet 2.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–7 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 11–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 11–7 against 10.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | NWISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.20 | 1.28 | 8–6 | 7.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2023-04-22 | Olympia Silver Team Race Seeding Regatta | skipper | 0.95 | 2.04 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.09 | 0.4 | 43% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Season | |||||
| The Burke Thomas Trophy - ILCA 6 Girls Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.6 | — |
| 24/25 Cressy National Championship ILCA 6 Female Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.2 | 0.80 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Esther Ireland |  Old Dominion University |
'29 |
| ISSA | Esther Ireland |  Peninsula High School |
'25 |
| ISSA | Esther Ireland |  Olympia High School |
'25 |
| ISSA | Esther Ireland |  Yelm High School |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
