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MISSA Cressy (ILCA 6 Boys)

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Owen Kohut '25 1 1 2 1 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 17
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School William Utz '28 3 2 11 2 5 8 5 4 8 7 4 2 61
Oak Park River Forest Oak Park River Forest Jp Crabb '28 8 4 12 11 8 4 2 2 5 8 5 4 73
Black River Public School Black River Public School Matthew Tevelde '26 4 9 6 17 6 9 18 9 10 2 2 3 95
Badger High School Badger High School Oliver Gray '27 10 7 7 16 2 3 14 17 2 14 3 7 102
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Keegan Chatburn '25 13 10 3 15 9 12 11 12 3 4 7 5 104
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jack Armstrong '25 16 3 4 5 12 13 3 3 15 10 6 14 104
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Cole Bebeau '27 5 13 10 6 17 2 12 8 16 9 9 6 113
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Stonewall Anderson '26 7 11 17 7 11 6 24 6 4 5 10 8 116
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Dominik Moncur '25 14 8 1 3 4 11 4 7 9 11 18 DSQ 117
Zeeland High School Zeeland High School Cameron Bert '26 9 15 22 4 13 10 9 11 11 3 12 9 128
Catholic Memorial Catholic Memorial Jack Goggins '26 2 12 9 12 16 1 20 13 6 12 15 17 135
Culver Academies Culver Academies Chris (Ruijing) Hong '28 12 6 13 9 14 15 13 19 12 16 8 12 149
St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Adi Narayan '27 17 18 20 18 3 18 7 10 7 13 14 11 156
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Liam Gilin '25 15 20 5 14 10 14 23 5 24 19 11 10 170
St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Lorenzo Good '25 11 22 16 10 18 16 21 14 17 6 17 13 181
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Akhil Marur '27 6 5 18 20 7 20 8 25 13 20 19 DSQ 188
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Sean Ellison '25 22 19 15 19 20 7 10 16 14 17 23 16 198
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Tyler David '27 21 17 8 8 15 19 6 22 20 24 20 20 200
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Ryan Ellison '28 23 24 14 24 19 24 22 18 18 15 13 15 229
Brookfield Academy Brookfield Academy Kai Suh-Pomierski '25 18 16 19 13 22 21 25 21 25 18 DSQ 18 243
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School No Show 20 14 23 22 24 22 17 24 19 23 22 19 249
Delano High School Delano High School No Show 19 21 24 23 21 17 19 20 23 22 21 21 251
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Joey Kim '26 24 23 21 21 23 25 15 15 22 21 16 DSQ 253
Coon Rapids High School Coon Rapids High School Josh Van Norman '25 25 25 26 26 25 23 16 23 21 25 24 22 281
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Nicholas Grimm '28 26 26 25 25 26 26 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 316
Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Delano High SchoolDelano High School Delano767676767676767676767676
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 3210645210645210645210645210645210645210645210645210645210645210645210645

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  26 boats · 12 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Owen Kohut '25Lake Forest High School Scouts 112/123.516.23+2.7299th → 99th13.6<1%1.4 / 5.4
2William Utz '28Pewaukee High School Varsity 112/121.953.19+1.2582nd → 99th5.62%5.1 / 10.0
3Jp Crabb '28Oak Park River Forest12/122.402.80+0.4091st → 96th0.723%6.1 / 8.6
4Matthew Tevelde '26Black River Public School12/122.152.20+0.0585th → 86th0.032%7.9 / 9.4
5Oliver Gray '27Badger High School12/121.752.05+0.3179th → 83rd0.427%8.5 / 10.9
6Jack Armstrong '25West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 112/121.202.00+0.8065th → 83rd2.68%8.7 / 12.9
6Keegan Chatburn '25Lake Forest High School Scouts 212/122.142.13−0.0185th → 84th0.043%8.7 / 9.6
8Cole Bebeau '27Arrowhead High School12/121.011.94+0.9358th → 82nd3.414%9.4 / 13.5
9Stonewall Anderson '26Wayzata High School Navy 112/120.551.68+1.1341st → 77th4.77%9.7 / 15.0
10Dominik Moncur '25Wayzata High School Navy 212/121.802.11+0.3180th → 84th0.442%9.8 / 10.8
11Cameron Bert '26Zeeland High School12/121.251.61+0.3566th → 75th0.626%10.7 / 12.7
12Jack Goggins '26Catholic Memorial12/120.971.45+0.4857th → 71st1.027%11.2 / 13.6
13Chris (Ruijing) Hong '28Culver Academies12/120.701.43+0.7345th → 71st2.329%12.4 / 14.6
14Adi Narayan '27St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 212/121.001.21+0.2158th → 65th0.247%13.0 / 13.5
15Liam Gilin '25West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 212/121.070.75−0.3360th → 48th0.560%14.2 / 13.3
16Lorenzo Good '25St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 112/120.920.85−0.0755th → 52nd0.062%15.1 / 14.0
17Akhil Marur '27Lycee Francais de Chicago12/120.530.59+0.0539th → 42nd0.055%15.7 / 15.2
18Sean Ellison '25Birmingham Public Schools Varsity 212/120.800.50−0.3050th → 38th0.572%16.5 / 14.3
19Tyler David '27Pewaukee High School Varsity 212/12-0.380.37+0.7413th → 33rd2.331%16.7 / 18.3
20Ryan Ellison '28Birmingham Public Schools Varsity 112/12-0.160.05+0.2017th → 23rd0.266%19.1 / 17.5
21Kai Suh-Pomierski '25Brookfield Academy12/120.24-0.16−0.4029th → 17th0.788%20.2 / 16.2
24Joey Kim '26Minnetonka High School12/120.13-0.20−0.3425th → 16th0.591%21.1 / 16.6
25Josh Van Norman '25Coon Rapids High School12/12-0.22u-1.71−1.4916th → 1st8.597%23.4 / 17.8
26Nicholas Grimm '28Benilde St Margarets12/12-0.98-2.70−1.724th → 1st3.9>99%26.3 / 20.2

Conditions — 09/14/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1025.7 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.5 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From NNE (15°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1025.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Wayzata — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Wayzata in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Wayzata: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →