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MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier: Green Division

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 New Albany High School New Albany High School Eagles 8 8
2 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold 17 17
3 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 21 21
4 Thomas Worthington High School Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals 32 32
5 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 42 42
6 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Seahawks 43 43
7 Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 46 46
8 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 47 47
9 Bexley High School Bexley High School Lions 49 49
10 Westerville South High School Westerville South High School Wildcats 54 54
11 Olentangy Berlin HS Olentangy Berlin HS Bears 62 62
12 Vermilion High School Vermilion High School Sailors 64 64
13 Bishop Watterson Bishop Watterson Eagles 70 70
14 Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees 75 75
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
New Albany High School New Albany High School Eagles 1 1 2 1 2 1 8 Beylan Gode '25
Libby Gode '27
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold 2 5 1 4 1 4 17 Charlie Vink '27
Kari Taylor '25
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 3 3 3 3 4 5 21 Aarush Kapur '25 [1-4]
Andrew Wiand '25 [5-6]
Krish Reddy '26 [1-4]
Thomas Worthington High School Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals 5 2 5 14 3 3 32 Finn Mahoney '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack Calfee '26 [3-4]
Ellie Hutchings '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Grant Fuerst '27 [3-4]
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 13 12 4 2 9 2 42 Bleu Strnad '26 [1-6]
Adler Johnston '27 [1-2]
Frank Wildi '25 [3-6]
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Seahawks 4 6 9 10 5 9 43 Ryan Ellison '28 [1-3, 5-6]
Sean Ellison '25 [4]
Luc Messner '27 [1-3, 5-6]
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 9 4 10 5 6 12 46 Charlie Pensom '29
Elliot Chiang '28
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 7 8 6 6 14 6 47 Ralph Zemaitis '25 [1-6]
Nolan Graham '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Liam Kipnis '27 [3-4]
Bexley High School Bexley High School Lions 6 7 8 7 10 11 49 Henry Elmore '25 [1-6]
Hadley Langoff '26 [1-4]
Reed Schworm '25 [5-6]
Westerville South High School Westerville South High School Wildcats 8 10 12 8 8 8 54 Max Rodriguez '29
Fitz Baker '28
Olentangy Berlin HS Olentangy Berlin HS Bears 12 14 13 9 7 7 62 Kenna Perry '27
Ellie Doepker '25
Vermilion High School Vermilion High School Sailors 11 13 7 11 12 10 64 Everett Treece '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Elliot Treece '29 [3-4]
Elliot Treece '29 [1-2]
Austin Phillips '29 [3-6]
Bishop Watterson Bishop Watterson Eagles 10 11 11 BKD 13 13 70 Cecilia Maher '27
Alexander Gradisar '27
Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees 14 9 14 13 11 14 75 Savana Harte '26
Ryker Tessmer '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.380+0.38
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bath High SchoolBath High School Fighting Bees667788
Bexley High SchoolBexley High School Lions77881010
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools Seahawks171718181919
Bishop WattersonBishop Watterson Eagles8810101111
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity101011111212
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits111112121313
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Gold121213131414
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers131314141515
New Albany High SchoolNew Albany High School Eagles141415151616
Olentangy Berlin HSOlentangy Berlin HS Bears151516161717
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Pirates161617171818
Thomas Worthington High SchoolThomas Worthington High School Cardinals181819192020
Vermilion High SchoolVermilion High School Sailors1919202066
Westerville South High SchoolWesterville South High School Wildcats20206677
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees Savana Harte '26 Ryker Tessmer '29
Bexley High School Bexley High School Lions Henry Elmore '25 [1-6] Hadley Langoff '26 [1-4]
Reed Schworm '25 [5-6]
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Seahawks Ryan Ellison '28 [1-3, 5-6]
Sean Ellison '25 [4]		 Luc Messner '27 [1-3, 5-6]
Bishop Watterson Bishop Watterson Eagles Cecilia Maher '27 Alexander Gradisar '27
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity Aarush Kapur '25 [1-4]
Andrew Wiand '25 [5-6]		 Krish Reddy '26 [1-4]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits Ralph Zemaitis '25 [1-6] Nolan Graham '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Liam Kipnis '27 [3-4]
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold Charlie Vink '27 Kari Taylor '25
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers Bleu Strnad '26 [1-6] Adler Johnston '27 [1-2]
Frank Wildi '25 [3-6]
New Albany High School New Albany High School Eagles Beylan Gode '25 Libby Gode '27
Olentangy Berlin HS Olentangy Berlin HS Bears Kenna Perry '27 Ellie Doepker '25
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates Charlie Pensom '29 Elliot Chiang '28
Thomas Worthington High School Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals Finn Mahoney '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack Calfee '26 [3-4]		 Ellie Hutchings '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Grant Fuerst '27 [3-4]
Vermilion High School Vermilion High School Sailors Everett Treece '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Elliot Treece '29 [3-4]		 Elliot Treece '29 [1-2]
Austin Phillips '29 [3-6]
Westerville South High School Westerville South High School Wildcats Max Rodriguez '29 Fitz Baker '28

Conditions — 09/21/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1012.8 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 86°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From WNW (301°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1012.8 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at New Albany: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at New Albany by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at New Albany, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →