MDISA St. Marys Ryken Tier 2 Fleet

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 13 21 34
2 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 20 30 50
3 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 33 20 53
4 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 23 35 58
5 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 41 27 68
6 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 35 35 70
7 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 39 38 77
8 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 48 47 95
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 2 5 1 1 2 1 1 13 Xander Moulds '29
C. Aubrey Reese '26
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 3 3 4 4 1 3 2 20 Clara Wilson '25
Owen Delwiche '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 1 2 3 3 6 3 23 Graham Boison '28 [1-7]
Lucille Leigh '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Logan Lahtinen '28 [3-4, 7]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 7 6 5 2 6 2 5 33 Jared Werner '25
William Dennis '29
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 4 2 7 8 4 4 6 35 Eve Cintron '26
Ben Rashkin '28
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 7 6 6 5 7 7 39 Gracen Armsworthy '26 [1-6]
David Turner '27 [7]
Alex Dusterwald '27 [1-6]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 8 8 3 5 8 5 4 41 Nolan Wingate '28 [1-7]
Ryan Deibler '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Jekari Mason '29 [3-4]
Layken Phang '29 [7]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 6 4 8 7 7 8 8 48 John Decker '27 [1-7]
Mara Larkin '28 [1-4, 7]
Owen Henry '28 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 5 5 2 5 1 1 1 20 Nicholas Kitts '25
Parker Roy '29
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 1 1 3 1 6 3 6 21 Gibson Farr '25
Devin De La Paz '25
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 7 6 1 3 2 6 2 27 Layken Phang '29 [1-4]
Jekari Mason '29 [5-7]
Nolan Wingate '28 [1-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 2 2 6 8 3 2 7 30 Garrett Szymendera '28
Austin Brelage '30
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 3 8 4 7 5 4 4 35 Brandon Hall '28 [1-7]
Caleb Carrasco '28 [1-6]
Lucille Leigh '28 [7]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 6 3 5 6 7 5 3 35 Ethan Snyder '27
Chloe Cummings '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 4 4 7 4 4 7 8 38 Michael Groat '27
Ocean Williams '28
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 8 7 RAF 2 8 8 5 47 Erin Hannon '28 [1-7]
Steven Guilday '28 [1-2, 5-7]
Owen Henry '28 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers1133557
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron2244668
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins3355771
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets4466882
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders 15577113
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders 26688224
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers7711335
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights8822446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2244668
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron3355771
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins4466882
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets5577113
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders 16688224
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders 27711335
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers8822446
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding John Decker '27 [1-7] Mara Larkin '28 [1-4, 7]
Owen Henry '28 [5-6]
Cavaliers Erin Hannon '28 [1-7] Steven Guilday '28 [1-2, 5-7]
Owen Henry '28 [3-4]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Eve Cintron '26 Ben Rashkin '28
Battlin' Baron Ethan Snyder '27 Chloe Cummings '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Graham Boison '28 [1-7] Lucille Leigh '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Logan Lahtinen '28 [3-4, 7]
Bruins Brandon Hall '28 [1-7] Caleb Carrasco '28 [1-6]
Lucille Leigh '28 [7]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Clara Wilson '25 Owen Delwiche '25
Hornets Garrett Szymendera '28 Austin Brelage '30
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Xander Moulds '29 C. Aubrey Reese '26
Raiders 1 Gibson Farr '25 Devin De La Paz '25
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Jared Werner '25 William Dennis '29
Raiders 2 Nicholas Kitts '25 Parker Roy '29
Patuxent Patuxent Nolan Wingate '28 [1-7] Ryan Deibler '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Jekari Mason '29 [3-4]
Layken Phang '29 [7]
Panthers Layken Phang '29 [1-4]
Jekari Mason '29 [5-7]
Nolan Wingate '28 [1-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Gracen Armsworthy '26 [1-6]
David Turner '27 [7]
Alex Dusterwald '27 [1-6]
Knights Michael Groat '27 Ocean Williams '28

Conditions — 10/05/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1021.0 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From NNE (20°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1021.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's Ryken: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.17 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Mary's Ryken, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →