Great Mills High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.49 (fleet 0.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–8 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 2–8 against 2.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | MDISA SSA Team Race | skipper | 0.64 | 0.05 | 2–8 | 2.8 | −0.59 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA SSA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| 2025 T1 Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.4 | 0.27 |
| 2025 Azalea Bowl Regatta | Crew | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA St. Marys Ryken Tier 2 Fleet | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.9 | 1.25 |
| MDISA DC Sail T2 Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.3 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Ryken Tier 2 Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.3 | 1.34 |
| MDISA Ryken Ladies Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.9 | 0.25 |
| MDISA Kent Island Tier 2 | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.0 | 0.29 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA T2 St. Mary's Ryken | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.2 | 1.78 |
| MDISA SSPP Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 0.41 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Clara Wilson |  Patuxent |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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