MDISA Ryken Tier 2 Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 21 23 44
2 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 23 36 59
3 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 22 42 64
4 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 43 28 71
5 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 24 52 76
6 Notre Dame Preparatory School Notre Dame Preparatory School Blazers 48 39 87
7 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 57 30 87
8 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 58 37 95
9 Lab School of Washington DC Lab School of Washington DC Dragons 55 42 97
10 Towson High School Towson High School Generals 36 64 100
11 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 76 69 145
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 1 1 5 4 4 5 1 21 Maria Mercier '25
Allie Clark '26
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 3 3 2 3 2 2 7 22 Cece Carey '28
Saoirse Taylor '28
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 6 1 5 3 1 3 23 Erin Lawlor '26
Felicia Gomoljak '26
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 2 8 3 2 1 6 2 24 Luke Johnson '25
Amelia Wire '27
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 8 4 4 1 7 8 4 36 Anna Makovich '26
Ouisie Goldrick '25
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 6 7 6 6 8 4 6 43 Nolan Wingate '28 [1-4, 6-7]
Joseph Dibonaventuro '26 [5]
Paul Wilson '27 [1-2]
Owen Myers '29 [3-4]
Nolan Wingate '28 [5]
Joseph Dibonaventuro '26 [6-7]
Notre Dame Preparatory School Notre Dame Preparatory School Blazers 7 2 DSQ 10 5 3 9 48 Sophia Hammond '26
Eloise Graf '26
Lab School of Washington DC Lab School of Washington DC Dragons 9 5 9 8 6 10 8 55 James Reilly '27
Conor Murray '27
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 10 9 8 9 9 7 5 57 John Wills '25
Ashley Kroeger '26
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 5 10 7 7 10 9 10 58 Jared Werner '25
Everett Moulds '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 76 Michael Groat '27
Bryeden Rapp '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 2 1 8 1 8 1 2 23 Clara Wilson '25
Mary Muir '25
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 9 5 4 6 1 2 1 28 Thomas Birchfield '27 [1-7]
Joseph Dibonaventuro '26 [1-2]
Paul Wilson '27 [3-7]
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 4 2 1 3 9 4 7 30 William Marschner '26
Anna Grace Gutfleish '27
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 3 4 7 5 3 6 8 36 Rosie Benson '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Skyler Krinetz '25 [3-4, 7]
Tanner Dalton '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Chasse '27 [3-4, 7]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 10 2 11 6 3 4 37 Charlie Bates '26
C. Aubrey Reese '26
Notre Dame Preparatory School Notre Dame Preparatory School Blazers 5 6 3 4 5 5 11 39 Claire Rowland '26
Gina Varacalle-Goetz '27
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 6 3 10 8 2 8 5 42 Gene Williams '29
Dawson Cooper '28
Lab School of Washington DC Lab School of Washington DC Dragons 7 11 5 2 4 7 6 42 Dylan Jacobson '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Olivia Cozette '25 [3-4, 7]
Olivia Cozette '25 [1-2]
Adelaide Hankin '27 [3-6]
Dylan Jacobson '29 [7]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 8 7 6 10 7 11 3 52 Liam Burgess '27
Sebastian Yurcisin '25
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 10 9 9 7 11 9 9 64 Will Carnell '25
Ruby Turner '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 11 8 11 9 10 10 10 69 Gracen Armsworthy '26
Georgia Mudd '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights1133557
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins2244668
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets3355779
Lab School of Washington DCLab School of Washington DC Dragons44668810
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders55779911
Notre Dame Preparatory SchoolNotre Dame Preparatory School Blazers668810101
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers779911112
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres991111224
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights881010113
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals101011335
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings111122446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights2244668
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins3355779
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets44668810
Lab School of Washington DCLab School of Washington DC Dragons55779911
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders668810101
Notre Dame Preparatory SchoolNotre Dame Preparatory School Blazers779911112
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers881010113
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres101011335
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights991111224
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals111122446
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings1133557

Conditions — 04/28/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1021.3 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.1 kn
Gusts to 13.4 kn
From WSW (245°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1021.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary’s Ryken: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary’s Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at St. Mary’s Ryken: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →