MDISA Ryken Ladies Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 23 23
2 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 27 27
3 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 28 28
4 Panthers Panthers Panthers 33 MRP 33 MRP
5 Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty 41 41
6 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 45 45
7 Falcons Falcons Falcons 66 MRP 66 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 5 3 4 2 1 3 4 1 23 Clara Wilson '25
Mary Muir '25
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 1 4 2 3 6 4 3 4 27 Cece Carey '28
Saoirse Taylor '28
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 5 3 5 5 2 2 2 28 Erin Lawlor '26
Felicia Gomoljak '26
Panthers Panthers Panthers 2 2 1 1 2 RDG 1 3 33 MRP
Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty 3 1 7 6 7 7 5 5 41 Eliana Arteaga '27 [1-3, 7-8]
Adelaide Hankin '27 [4-6]
Mercer Rensberger '29 [1-3, 7-8]
Arabella Laws-Dunn '27 [4-6]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 7 6 6 4 3 6 6 7 45 Kendall Tharp '26 [1-3, 7-8]
Gracen Armsworthy '26 [4-6]
Lindsey Jahn '26 [1-3, 7-8]
Bailey Geisz '27 [4-6]
Falcons Falcons Falcons 6 7 5 7 4 5 RDG 6 66 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
PanthersPanthers Panthers11188833
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins88833344
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets33344455
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres66677711
FalconsFalcons Falcons44455566
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights55566677
Washington Liberty High SchoolWashington Liberty High School Washington Liberty77711188
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins Erin Lawlor '26 Felicia Gomoljak '26
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets Clara Wilson '25 Mary Muir '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights Kendall Tharp '26 [1-3, 7-8]
Gracen Armsworthy '26 [4-6]
Lindsey Jahn '26 [1-3, 7-8]
Bailey Geisz '27 [4-6]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres Cece Carey '28 Saoirse Taylor '28
Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty Eliana Arteaga '27 [1-3, 7-8]
Adelaide Hankin '27 [4-6]
Mercer Rensberger '29 [1-3, 7-8]
Arabella Laws-Dunn '27 [4-6]

Conditions — 05/11/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1010.6 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 13.2 kn
From SSE (156°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1010.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Marys Ryken: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.87 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Marys Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at St. Marys Ryken: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →