NYISA-NW Fall Jamboree Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Gators 7 11 18
2 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 18 12 30
3 West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 21 34 55
4 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 35 23 58
5 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 40 31 71
6 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 21 51 72
7 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 50 22 72
8 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 32 51 83
9 Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 50 47 97
10 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 56 48 104
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Gators 1 2 1 1 1 1 7 Isabella Donovan '27
Olivia Malic '28
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 4 1 4 3 4 2 18 Alex Emblidge '29
Corban Burke '27
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 5 3 2 3 6 21 Juliana Lanz '26 [1-6]
Isaac Aymerich '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Cooper Petzing '26 [3-4]
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 3 3 2 4 2 7 21 Lucio Moscati '27
Leonard Vogelsang '29
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 6 4 5 7 7 3 32 Aiden Dearman '26
Ava Patti '27
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 5 6 6 8 6 4 35 Tucker Mayer '29
Tyler Elia '27
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 8 9 8 5 5 5 40 Levi Mayer '28
Sophie Kimelberg '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 7 7 9 9 8 10 50 Avi Whitmore '29
Caroline Churchill '28
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 10 10 7 6 9 8 50 Hilen Lopez '28
No Show
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 9 8 10 10 10 9 56 Daniel Piazza '26
Luke Hales '29
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Gators 2 3 1 1 2 2 11 Josie Riley '27
Clara Riley '29
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 1 4 4 1 1 12 Matthew Murad '26
Colton Davis '27
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 4 5 3 3 4 3 22 Jack Churchill '29
Jack Webb '29
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 5 4 2 2 5 5 23 Ashlyn Xiao '27
No Show
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 3 2 5 6 9 6 31 Duncan Jorgenson '28
Emmett Benedicto '28
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 10 6 6 5 3 4 34 Noah Saks '29
Josephine Herrmann '26
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 9 7 7 7 8 9 47 No Show
No Show
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 8 10 9 8 6 7 48 Theo Moscati '29
No Show
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 6 9 10 9 7 10 51 Henrey Silvestri '28
Michael Barnum '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 7 8 8 10 10 8 51 Jack Ballard '29
Gabe Logan '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2025 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins113355
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders224466
Nardin AcademyNardin Academy Gators335577
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 1446688
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 2557799
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 166881010
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 2779911
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 188101022
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2991133
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles10102244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins224466
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders335577
Nardin AcademyNardin Academy Gators446688
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 1557799
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 266881010
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 1779911
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 288101022
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1991133
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 210102244
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles113355

Conditions — 09/20/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 40%  ·  Pressure 1024.0 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.6 kn
Gusts to 22.5 kn
From ENE (70°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1024.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Joseph's Collegi: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Joseph's Collegi by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Joseph's Collegi, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →