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Fall Kickoff Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 W.B. Ray High School W.B. Ray High School Texans 7 7
2 Flour Bluff High School Flour Bluff High School Hornets 1 14 14
3 Flour Bluff High School Flour Bluff High School Hornets 2 15 15
4 Flour Bluff High School Flour Bluff High School Hornets 3 22 22
5 London High School London High School Pirates 2 22 22
6 London High School London High School Pirates 3 29 29
7 London High School London High School Pirates 1 31 31
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
W.B. Ray High School W.B. Ray High School Texans 1 1 3 1 1 7 Maximo Hudlow '26
Dylanie Gutierrez '27
Flour Bluff High School Flour Bluff High School Hornets 1 2 2 4 2 4 14 Caroline Levandowski '27
Sydney Davidson '29
Flour Bluff High School Flour Bluff High School Hornets 2 4 4 2 3 2 15 Yasmeen Djilali '27
Claira Shores '27
Flour Bluff High School Flour Bluff High School Hornets 3 3 6 1 6 6 22 Jessica Hobbs '27
Breanna Kreft '27
London High School London High School Pirates 2 5 3 7 4 3 22 June Schroeder '29
Casey Coleman '28
London High School London High School Pirates 3 7 7 5 5 5 29 Jack Schroeder '27
Kaylee Coleman '26
London High School London High School Pirates 1 6 5 6 7 7 31 Sophia Dickey '27
Molly O'Kelly '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2025 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Flour Bluff High SchoolFlour Bluff High School Hornets 144444
Flour Bluff High SchoolFlour Bluff High School Hornets 21616161616
Flour Bluff High SchoolFlour Bluff High School Hornets 366666
London High SchoolLondon High School Pirates 111111
London High SchoolLondon High School Pirates 21515151515
London High SchoolLondon High School Pirates 31717171717
W.B. Ray High SchoolW.B. Ray High School Texans77777

Conditions — 09/06/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

87°F
↑ 91°F   ↓ 83°F
Feels like 97°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From E (87°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1014.2 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Flour Bluff: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.35)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Flour Bluff by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Flour Bluff, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →