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NYISA-NW Fall Fleet Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Gators 5 14 19
2 West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 17 5 22
3 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 12 12 24
4 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 16 16 32
5 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 23 16 39
6 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 15 25 40
7 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 24 24 48
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Gators 1 1 2 1 5 Isabella Donovan '27
Olivia Malic '28
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 4 2 1 5 12 Charlie Marynowski '26
Matthew Murad '26
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 3 5 5 2 15 Lucio Moscati '27 [1-4]
Leonard Vogelsang '29 [1-2]
Luke Hales '29 [3-4]
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 3 4 7 16 Tucker Mayer '29
Tyler Elia '27
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 6 4 3 4 17 Isaac Aymerich '26
Noah Saks '29
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 7 6 7 3 23 Gabe Logan '29
Ava Patti '27
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 5 7 6 6 24 Jack Ballard '29
Tristan Taylor '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 1 1 1 5 Juliana Lanz '26
Madelyn Principe '28
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 5 3 3 12 Alex Emblidge '29 [1-4]
Jacob Barney '27 [1-2]
Colton Davis '27 [3-4]
Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Gators 3 2 5 4 14 Josie Riley '27
Clara Riley '29
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 4 6 4 2 16 Duncan Jorgenson '28 [1-2]
Levi Mayer '28 [3-4]
Emmett Benedicto '28 [1-2]
Sophie Kimelberg '26 [3-4]
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 6 3 2 5 16 Caroline Churchill '28
Mari Abbey '29
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 5 7 6 6 24 Jack Webb '29
Aiden Dearman '26
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 7 4 7 7 25 Theo Moscati '29
Daniel Piazza '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2025 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders1122
Nardin AcademyNardin Academy Gators2233
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings3344
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 14455
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 25566
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders6677
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles7788

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders8899
Nardin AcademyNardin Academy Gators991010
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings10101111
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 111111212
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 212121313
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders13131414
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles141411

Conditions — 10/05/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1024.0 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.9 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 13.2 kn
From SSW (199°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1024.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southwestern Central: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.25 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southwestern Central by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Southwestern Central: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →