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MDISA Fleet Champs

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Admirals Admirals Admirals 26 33 59
2 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 57 35 92
3 Zags Zags Zags 47 51 98
4 Bruins Bruins Bruins 61 52 113
5 Cavaliers Cavaliers Cavaliers 84 63 147
6 Varsity Varsity Varsity 62 88 150
7 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 75 118 193
8 Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Varsity 112 89 201
9 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 114 90 204
10 Varsity Varsity Varsity 139 133 272
11 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 139 156 295
12 The Potomac School The Potomac School Panthers 134 182 316
13 Varsity Varsity Varsity 182 182 364
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Admirals Admirals Admirals 1 1 3 RDG 6 1 4 1 1 2 2 1 1 26
Zags Zags Zags 2 2 5 1 4 8 2 2 8 7 1 3 2 47
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers DNF 3 1 3 1 2 7 4 2 1 5 6 8 57 Kyle Comerford '15
George Kaye '18
Bruins Bruins Bruins 5 4 2 2 3 6 3 10 10 5 4 2 5 61
Varsity Varsity Varsity 4 6 4 4 5 3 1 3 5 3 3 OCS 7 62
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 7 5 6 5 10 4 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 75 Maggie Schult '15
Diana Otis '15
Cavaliers Cavaliers Cavaliers 3 9 8 6 7 5 8 7 4 4 9 4 10 84
Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Varsity DNF 7 7 DNF 2 10 10 6 3 8 OCS OCS 3 112 Casey Cabot '17 [1-13]
Genevieve Dickinson '17 [1-2, 7-8, 11-13]
Talia Frank '17 [3-6, 9-10]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 6 8 11 DNF 8 11 5 12 7 11 8 7 6 114 Morgan Sailer '15
Annabelle Hutchinson '17
The Potomac School The Potomac School Panthers 9 10 9 7 9 7 11 9 11 10 DNS DNS DNS 134 Connor Hennessey '15
Olivia Dann '15
Varsity Varsity Varsity 8 11 10 DNF DNF 9 9 11 12 9 7 OCS 11 139
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 10 12 12 DNS 11 12 12 8 9 12 10 8 9 139 Jacob Stoner '15
Hailey Carson '17
Varsity Varsity Varsity DNF DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 182
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Admirals Admirals Admirals 1 3 3 3 4 1 6 4 2 1 2 1 2 33
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 3 2 5 5 1 2 2 2 1 4 3 2 3 35 Porter Kavle '18
Lexi Pline '15
Zags Zags Zags 5 4 1 4 3 4 4 1 5 3 9 4 4 51
Bruins Bruins Bruins 2 5 7 2 7 5 3 6 3 2 6 3 1 52
Cavaliers Cavaliers Cavaliers 4 1 2 6 6 3 1 3 6 5 7 OCS 5 63
Varsity Varsity Varsity 10 6 4 1 2 7 7 9 7 7 5 OCS 9 88
Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Varsity 7 8 8 8 5 8 10 7 9 6 1 6 6 89 Marley Hillman '17 [1-4, 7-10]
Tye Rubin '17 [5-6, 11-13]
River Carson '17 [1-4, 7-10]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 6 7 6 7 10 6 5 5 4 8 10 8 8 90 Emily Harrison '17
Elizabeth Hupp '17
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 9 DNF 9 9 9 10 8 8 8 9 8 7 10 118 Kate Riley '18
Andrew Vernon '15
Varsity Varsity Varsity 8 DNF DNF 10 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 9 11 133
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 4 5 7 156 Chelsea Miller '15
Jameson Davis '15
The Potomac School The Potomac School Panthers DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 182 Grace Cherony '15
Addie Stansbury '15
Varsity Varsity Varsity DNF DNS DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 182
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers1122334455667
CavaliersCavaliers Cavaliers2233445566778
BruinsBruins Bruins3344556677889
Edmund Burke SchoolEdmund Burke School Varsity44556677889910
ZagsZags Zags5566778899101011
AdmiralsAdmirals Admirals667788991010111112
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons77889910101111121213
VarsityVarsity Varsity889910101111121213131
VarsityVarsity Varsity991010111112121313112
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints101011111212131311223
VarsityVarsity Varsity1111121213131122334
The Potomac SchoolThe Potomac School Panthers12121313112233445
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity131311223344556

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers1122334455667
CavaliersCavaliers Cavaliers2233445566778
BruinsBruins Bruins3344556677889
Edmund Burke SchoolEdmund Burke School Varsity44556677889910
ZagsZags Zags5566778899101011
AdmiralsAdmirals Admirals667788991010111112
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons77889910101111121213
VarsityVarsity Varsity889910101111121213131
VarsityVarsity Varsity991010111112121313112
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints101011111212131311223
VarsityVarsity Varsity1111121213131122334
The Potomac SchoolThe Potomac School Panthers12121313112233445
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity131311223344556
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Kyle Comerford '15 George Kaye '18
Panthers Porter Kavle '18 Lexi Pline '15
Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Casey Cabot '17 [1-13] Genevieve Dickinson '17 [1-2, 7-8, 11-13]
Talia Frank '17 [3-6, 9-10]
Varsity Marley Hillman '17 [1-4, 7-10]
Tye Rubin '17 [5-6, 11-13]		 River Carson '17 [1-4, 7-10]
Severna Park Severna Park Maggie Schult '15 Diana Otis '15
Falcons Kate Riley '18 Andrew Vernon '15
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Morgan Sailer '15 Annabelle Hutchinson '17
Saints Emily Harrison '17 Elizabeth Hupp '17
The Potomac School The Potomac School Connor Hennessey '15 Olivia Dann '15
Panthers Grace Cherony '15 Addie Stansbury '15
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Jacob Stoner '15 Hailey Carson '17
Varsity Chelsea Miller '15 Jameson Davis '15

Conditions — 03/28/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 35%  ·  Pressure 1016.0 hPa

Temperature

35°F
↑ 38°F   ↓ 31°F
Feels like 22°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.1 kn
avg  ·  max 15.3 kn
Gusts to 29.2 kn
From NW (307°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity35% Pressure1016.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 13 kn · NW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Annapolis: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.33 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Annapolis by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Annapolis, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →