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NorCal Divisional #2 Gold Fleet

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Woodside High School Woodside High School Wildcat 18 15 33
2 Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 1 29 31 60
3 Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 2 42 23 65
4 Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 16 59 75
5 Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Matadors 56 32 88
6 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 63 37 100
7 Lynbrook High School Lynbrook High School Vikings 41 63 104
8 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 51 56 107
9 San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School Red Devils 59 68 127
10 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 75 70 145
11 Crystal Springs Uplands School Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins 85 74 159
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 1 1 5 1 1 3 2 2 16 Jonathon Andrews '20
Simon Boeger '19
Woodside High School Woodside High School Wildcat 3 3 1 2 6 1 1 1 18 Joseph Politi '18
Sophia Mcdevitt '17
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 1 2 6 2 3 5 5 3 3 29 Tommy Young '18
Sean Tolen '20
Lynbrook High School Lynbrook High School Vikings 7 2 3 4 4 2 10 9 41 Thomas Samuels '17
Nelea Fong '20
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 2 4 8 7 5 2 6 5 5 42 Chloe Holder '19
Mia Morgan '19
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 9 4 4 9 10 4 4 7 51 John Deruff '17
William Hale '18
Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Matadors 5 5 6 7 7 7 9 10 56 Daniel Erisman '19
Devon Kurisu '19
San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School Red Devils 8 10 8 6 3 8 8 8 59 Lily Cunningham '17
Kai Hill '17
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 10 9 9 8 8 9 6 4 63 Francis Streitman '17
Kate Hofele '17
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 RAF 11 10 10 9 10 7 6 75 Griffin Chen '19 [1, 3, 7-8]
Sean Engelbrechtin '18 [2, 4-6]
Sean Engelbrechtin '18 [1, 3]
Griffin Chen '19 [2, 4]
Frances Tarpey-Schwed '19 [5-8]
Crystal Springs Uplands School Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins 6 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 85 Justin Lim '19
Stanley Lee '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Woodside High School Woodside High School Wildcat 1 1 2 3 1 1 5 1 15 Tommy Ashworth '21
Jessica O'Neill '19
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 2 2 3 1 1 5 2 2 7 23 Nicholas Sessions '20
Eric Maier '20
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 1 3 4 6 2 4 4 4 4 31 Sarah Young '20
Gabe Marra '17
Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Matadors 4 2 3 6 2 8 1 6 32 Will Foox '20
Thomas Erisman '19
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 6 9 4 5 3 5 3 2 37 Ben St. John '19
Makena Barkus '18
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 8 5 5 4 7 6 10 11 56 Sumner Strumph '17 [1-6]
Alex Pick '19 [7-8]
Reid Wishner '19 [1-6]
Derek Kuno-Williams '20 [7-8]
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 7 8 8 7 10 10 6 3 59 Caila Devlin '17
Liam Orozco '19
Lynbrook High School Lynbrook High School Vikings 10 6 7 8 9 3 11 9 63 Andrew Zheng '19
Michael Zheng '19
San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School Red Devils 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 68 Jeremy Gillespie '17 [1-8]
Micherice Tao '19 [1-6]
Graham Gerrity '17 [7-8]
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 5 7 9 11 11 9 8 10 70 Emma Figueredo '19 [1-6]
Christian Rodriguez '18 [7-8]
Emma Jones '18 [1-6]
Lily Hock '19 [7-8]
Crystal Springs Uplands School Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins 11 11 11 10 6 11 9 5 74 Wiley Yu '18
Mason Stang '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Alameda High SchoolAlameda High School Hornets5858585858585858
Crystal Springs Uplands SchoolCrystal Springs Uplands School Griffins3939393939393939
Lynbrook High SchoolLynbrook High School Vikings3838383838383838
Miramonte High SchoolMiramonte High School Matadors5757575757575757
Redwood High SchoolRedwood High School Giants 11919191919191919
Redwood High SchoolRedwood High School Giants 2135135135135135135135135
San Francisco University High SchoolSan Francisco University High School Red Devils22222222
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 17979797979797979
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2133133133133133133133133
The Bay School of San FranciscoThe Bay School of San Francisco Breakers141141141141141141141141
Woodside High SchoolWoodside High School Wildcat4040404040404040

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Alameda High SchoolAlameda High School Hornets5858585858585858
Crystal Springs Uplands SchoolCrystal Springs Uplands School Griffins3939393939393939
Lynbrook High SchoolLynbrook High School Vikings3838383838383838
Miramonte High SchoolMiramonte High School Matadors5757575757575757
Redwood High SchoolRedwood High School Giants 11919191919191919
Redwood High SchoolRedwood High School Giants 2135135135135135135135135
San Francisco University High SchoolSan Francisco University High School Red Devils22222222
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 17979797979797979
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2133133133133133133133133
The Bay School of San FranciscoThe Bay School of San Francisco Breakers141141141141141141141141
Woodside High SchoolWoodside High School Wildcat4040404040404040

Conditions — 02/11/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From NW (320°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1022.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 4 kn · N 6 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Woodside: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.17)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.29 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 14% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Woodside by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Woodside, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →