SAISA South Points 7 JV

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Braden River High School Braden River High School Pirates 11 10 21
2 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 11 10 21
3 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 21 7 28
4 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 8 27 35
5 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Shred City Residents 19 23 42
6 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 22 25 47
7 Palm Harbor University High School Palm Harbor University High School Swirl girls 28 30 58
8 Umatilla High School Umatilla High School Umatilla 31 33 64
9 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 35 31 66
10 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 42 28 70
11 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 37 41 78
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 3 2 2 1 8 Chris Purcell '21
Karen Liberman '20
Braden River High School Braden River High School Pirates 1 4 4 2 11 Camden Sullivan '21
Jack Soodek '20
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2 3 1 5 11 Garrett Dixon '21
Colin Fitzgerald '18
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Shred City Residents 4 8 3 4 19 Matthew Snyder '18
Mailia Sparks '21
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 8 1 6 6 21 Heidi Hicks '21
Nolan Pollack '20
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 5 5 5 7 22 Frederick Debiase '20
Griffin Barron '21
Palm Harbor University High School Palm Harbor University High School Swirl girls 9 9 7 3 28 Kyle Funderburk '20
Michael Hayworth '20
Umatilla High School Umatilla High School Umatilla 6 7 10 8 31 Sam Pearl '18
No Show
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 7 10 9 9 35 Luke King '21
Kailin Foster '20
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 11 6 8 DNF 37 Katelyn Herter '20
Zuzanna Barska '22
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 10 11 11 10 42 Liz Cloninger '22
Jack Donovan '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 1 4 1 1 7 Ethan Danielson '22 [1-2]
Guthrie Braun '22 [3-4]
Thomas Cura '21 [1-2]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2 2 3 3 10 Ivan Levkovsky '20
Daniel Neville '21
Braden River High School Braden River High School Pirates 3 1 4 2 10 Mason Sullivan '22
Connor Snead '22
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Shred City Residents 8 6 5 4 23 Erik Volk '18
Brianne Tronio '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 6 5 2 OCS 25 Coby Flannery '21
Cesar Yudin '20
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 5 9 6 7 27 Bradley Reimer '20
Matthew Bueres '21
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 4 10 8 6 28 Matthew Mcvey '20
Logan Maharaj '20
Palm Harbor University High School Palm Harbor University High School Swirl girls 7 8 7 8 30 Emma Heck '20
Cassie Urbenz '19
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 10 3 9 9 31 Lars Osell '17
Mark K '20
Umatilla High School Umatilla High School Umatilla 11 7 10 5 33 Ruth Pearl '20
Chad Todd '20
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 9 11 11 10 41 Yazmeen Simpson '19
Ryan Ince '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Braden River High SchoolBraden River High School Pirates33333333
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Shred City Residents32323232
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders30303030
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons35353535
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves26262626
Palm Harbor University High SchoolPalm Harbor University High School Swirl girls31313131
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders29292929
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors28282828
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers27272727
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS34343434
Umatilla High SchoolUmatilla High School Umatilla25252525

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Braden River High SchoolBraden River High School Pirates33333333
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Shred City Residents32323232
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders30303030
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons35353535
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves26262626
Palm Harbor University High SchoolPalm Harbor University High School Swirl girls31313131
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders29292929
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors28282828
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers27272727
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS34343434
Umatilla High SchoolUmatilla High School Umatilla25252525
School / Team SkipperCrew
Braden River High School Braden River High School Camden Sullivan '21 Jack Soodek '20
Pirates Mason Sullivan '22 Connor Snead '22
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Matthew Snyder '18 Mailia Sparks '21
Shred City Residents Erik Volk '18 Brianne Tronio '19
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Chris Purcell '21 Karen Liberman '20
Raiders Bradley Reimer '20 Matthew Bueres '21
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Frederick Debiase '20 Griffin Barron '21
Falcons Coby Flannery '21 Cesar Yudin '20
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Liz Cloninger '22 Jack Donovan '20
ThunderWolves Matthew Mcvey '20 Logan Maharaj '20
Palm Harbor University High School Palm Harbor University High School Kyle Funderburk '20 Michael Hayworth '20
Swirl girls Emma Heck '20 Cassie Urbenz '19
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Luke King '21 Kailin Foster '20
Sailors Lars Osell '17 Mark K '20
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Heidi Hicks '21 Nolan Pollack '20
Chargers Ethan Danielson '22 [1-2]
Guthrie Braun '22 [3-4]
Thomas Cura '21 [1-2]
South Fork High School South Fork High School Katelyn Herter '20 Zuzanna Barska '22
SF BULLDOGS Yazmeen Simpson '19 Ryan Ince '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Garrett Dixon '21 Colin Fitzgerald '18
Raiders Ivan Levkovsky '20 Daniel Neville '21
Umatilla High School Umatilla High School Sam Pearl '18 No Show
Umatilla Ruth Pearl '20 Chad Todd '20

Conditions — 03/17/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.8 kn
avg  ·  max 12.7 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From SSE (159°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1017.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →