| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 8–2 |
| 2 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 3–7 |
| 3 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | 0–2 |
| 4 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,170 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 11 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.599 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −1.63 ± 0.60: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 3% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 1 | 4.78 school +0.10, home +0.10 | Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor -0.11 Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor Unreported Sailor / No Show | 95% | 8–2 (80%) | −1.5 |
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses | 3 | 1.17 school −0.20 | Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor -0.33 Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor No Show / Joe Peterson | 12% | 3–7 (30%) | +1.8 |
| 3 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints | 2 | 0.23 school −0.12 | Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor 0.12 0–6 | 18% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Christchurch School | 1.17 | 3.25 | 3–7 | 1.2 | +2.08 | 2.5 | 6% |
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 4.78 | 2.88 | 8–2 | 9.5 | −1.90 | 1.9 | 99% |
| 3 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | 0.23 | -2.77 | 0–2 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unreported Sailor | Christchurch School | 0.98 | 3.06 | 3–7 | 1.2 | +2.08 | 2.5 | 6% |
| No Show | Christchurch School | 0.54 | 2.62 | 3–7 | 1.2 | +2.08 | 2.5 | 6% |
| Unreported Sailor | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.50 | 0.60 | 16–4 | 18.9 | −1.90 | 3.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Christchurch School | 95% | |
| 1 | 2 | Christchurch School | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | 66% | |
| 1 | 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | 97% | |
| 2 | 4 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Christchurch School | 94% | |
| 3 | 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Christchurch School | 94% | |
| 4 | 6 | Christchurch School | Norfolk Collegiate School | 6% | upset |
| 6 | 8 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Christchurch School | 94% | |
| 7 | 9 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Christchurch School | 94% | |
| 8 | 10 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Christchurch School | 94% | |
| 9 | 11 | Christchurch School | Norfolk Collegiate School | 6% | upset |
| 10 | 12 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Christchurch School | 94% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Saints | 2-3-6 DNF | def. | |
Commodores | 1-4-5 DNF |
| 8 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Oaks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Unreported Sailor '19 | Unreported Sailor '15 No Show |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses | No Show Unreported Sailor '19 |
Joe Peterson '17 Unreported Sailor '15 |
|
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | Unreported Sailor '19 | Unreported Sailor '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
