none

HostAcalanes
Date04/23/2019
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#		School	Team	A	B	TOT
1		Parker	Parker	24	15	39
2		Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	11	46	57
3		Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	35	24	59
4		St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	28	32	60
5		Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	22	44	66
6		Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	26	42	68
7		Ernest J. McBride	Wolfpack	67	16	83
8		Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	38	46	84
9		Acalanes High School	Dons	62	24	86
10		Redwood High School	Giants	47	43	90
11		Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	66	25	91
12		The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	28	66	94
13		Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	41	56	97
14		Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	48	53	101
15		Granada High School	Matadors	50	54	104
16		Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	65	56	121
17		Marin Catholic	Wildcats	67	61	128
18	$Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	76	56	132
19		South Torrance High School	Spartans	72	64	136
20		Campolindo High School	Cougars	54	84	138
21		Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	80	67	147
22		Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	69	87	156
23		Blue and Gold	Varsity	83	74	157
24		College Park High School	Falcons	73	85	158
25		Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	88	99	187
26		The Athenian School	Owls	106	95	201
27		Lowell High School - CA	Cardinals	102	100	202
28		SOTA High School	SOTA	101	112	213

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	5	3	1	2	11	Kyle Gallagher '19 Alexander Woodmansee '20
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	7	11	3	1	22	Jemma Schroder '20 Teddy Knobel '21
	Parker	Parker	3	5	13	3	24	Gabriel Campbell '22 Katherine Crosby '20
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	1	9	12	4	26	Chris Salas '22 Alex Paulson '22
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	4	12	7	5	28	William Bayliss '20 Paul Ikeda '20
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	6	13	2	7	28	Fredrick Baldauf '20 Charlotte Navin '20
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	2	16	8	9	35	Dutch Dietrick '20 Sophia Burton '20
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	11	4	11	12	38	Emma Figueredo '19 Aquinnah Todd '21
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	15	6	14	6	41	Luke Marshall '20 Kendall Scanlan '21
	Redwood High School	Giants	10	2	18	17	47	Hailey Thompson '23 Alexandra Sessions '22
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	20	7	5	16	48	Sebastian Green '22 Alexander Nunez '20
	Granada High School	Matadors	9	15	4	22	50	Peter Marlett '20 Jacob Bauman '22
	Campolindo High School	Cougars	14	8	19	13	54	Brendan Connelly '23 Morgan Giovinazzi '22
	Acalanes High School	Dons	25	17	9	11	62	Sophia Browne '20 Jake Botting '22
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	16	24	15	10	65	Michael Mcculloch '21 [1-4] Joss Ettrick '21 [1-2] Charlie Gates '22 [3-4]
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	8	14	24	20	66	Lucien Canvinet '20 Ella Wadbrook '22
	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	17	10	22	18	67	Lucie Russell '20 Keilah Stypulkoski '19
	Ernest J. McBride	Wolfpack	23	19	17	8	67	Maximilian Rosenblad '19 Chase White '19
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	18	26	6	19	69	Jackson Hoover '20 Abaym Fritz '20
	South Torrance High School	Spartans	13	1	DNS	DNS	72	Emma Tallman '21 Juliet Gerwin '23
	College Park High School	Falcons	12	25	21	15	73	Nate Holden '21 Josh Botting '23
$Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	21	22	10	23	76	Diego Lockyer '21 Tyler Hoang '21
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	DNF	21	16	14	80	Campbell Biemiller '20 [1-3] Alex Day '20 [4] Sierra Stewart '19 [1-4]
	Blue and Gold	Varsity	19	18	25	21	83	Tessa Greene '22 Mia Nadel '22
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	24	20	20	24	88	Carolina Altbaum '21 Truman Lazarus '23
	SOTA High School	SOTA	22	23	27	DNF	101	Cal Smolenski '24 Aukje Van Eck '20
	Lowell High School - CA	Cardinals	27	27	23	25	102	Natalie Novolt '22 Darius Dragnea '22
	The Athenian School	Owls	26	28	26	26	106	Ethan Arnold '22 Bernie Badain '21

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
	Parker	Parker	1	4	7	3	15	Paulo Campbell '22 [1-4] Carolyn Kravets '21 [1-2] Nikolai Halldorson '22 [3-4]
	Ernest J. McBride	Wolfpack	2	3	3	8	16	Tristan Feves '22 Kayla Maguire '21
	Acalanes High School	Dons	6	13	1	4	24	Chase Englehart '22 Lola Rao '20
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	9	7	6	2	24	Peter Sangmeister '21 Sophia Mulvania '22
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	5	10	5	5	25	Rosie Ward '19 Eli Kelley '20
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	15	1	4	12	32	Evelyn Plam '19 Carolyne Ikeda '19
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	21	11	9	1	42	Kyle Vaughn '19 [1-4] Gracie Brummer '21 [1-2] Rosemary Martin '22 [3-4]
	Redwood High School	Giants	12	5	20	6	43	Bodhi "Bo" Tippo '21 Katherine Norris '22
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	14	8	12	10	44	Timmy Gee '20 Tatem Gee '23
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	3	18	2	23	46	Jacob Titcomb '21 [1-4] Michael Murphy '22 [1-2] Grace Lawson '19 [3-4]
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	20	9	8	9	46	Griffin Chen '19 Lily Hock '20
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	17	12	13	11	53	Miles Raneri '21 Nadia Gibbons '21
	Granada High School	Matadors	8	15	16	15	54	Rebecca Bauman '20 Joseph Marlett '23
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	4	2	26	24	56	Joshua Holzer '20 [1-2] Nickolas Monrique '19 [3-4] Ian Somerville '21 [1-2]
$Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	11	14	14	17	56	Elisabeth Rossbach '21 Troy Davidson '20
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	24	6	10	16	56	Josh Goldberg '21 [1-4] David Jelniker '21 [1-2] Darius Mahamedi '22 [3-4]
	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	26	17	11	7	61	Gabriella Von Esmarch '19 Ciara Hall '22
	South Torrance High School	Spartans	7	26	17	14	64	James Sawyer '21 Kieran Lyons '22
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	13	19	21	13	66	Ian Brown '21 Colette Lee '21
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	10	20	19	18	67	Loren Sim '19 [1-2, 4] Isabella Collins '19 [3] Mike Schugar '19 [1-2, 4]
	Blue and Gold	Varsity	23	16	15	20	74	Osian Bellinger '21 [1-2] Robert Suddath '21 [3-4] Elijah Smith '21 [1-2]
	Campolindo High School	Cougars	16	25	24	19	84	Ronald Hohnsbeen '21 Haley Rasilla '22
	College Park High School	Falcons	18	22	23	22	85	Jack Holden '22 Annika Altman '22
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	25	23	18	21	87	Matthew Sun '20 [1-4] Sean Choo '23 [1-2] Eric Slupski '20 [3-4]
	The Athenian School	Owls	19	27	22	27	95	Annie Chan '21 [1-4] Aisleen Welch '20 [1-2] James Mcgaughey '22 [3-4]
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	27	21	25	26	99
	Lowell High School - CA	Cardinals	22	24	DNF	25	100	Anna Novolt '22 Chloe Marinerstein '22
	SOTA High School	SOTA	28	DNF	27	28	112	Vittoria Adams '22 Ian Grossman '23

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
	Acalanes High School Dons	64	64	62	62
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	62	62	60	60
	Campolindo High School Cougars	60	60	58	58
	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	59	59	57	57
	College Park High School Falcons	58	58	56	56
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	57	57	55	55
	Design Tech High School d.tech 1	56	56	54	54
	Design Tech High School d.tech 2	55	55	53	53
	Ernest J. McBride Wolfpack	54	54	52	52
	Parker Parker	46	46	43	43
	Blue and Gold Varsity	61	61	59	59
	Granada High School Matadors	53	53	51	51
	Lowell High School - CA Cardinals	51	51	49	49
	Marin Catholic Wildcats	50	50	48	48
	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	49	49	47	47
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	48	48	46	46
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	47	47	44	44
	Redwood High School Giants	44	44	42	42
$Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon	52	52	50	50
	SOTA High School SOTA	43	43	41	41
	South Torrance High School Spartans	42	42	40	40
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats	41	41	39	39
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	40	40	38	38
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	39	39	37	37
	The Athenian School Owls	63	63	61	61
	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	38	38	36	36
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 1	37	37	64	64
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 2	36	36	63	63

Division B

	Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
	Acalanes High School Dons	63	63	61	61
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	61	61	59	59
	Campolindo High School Cougars	59	59	57	57
	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	58	58	56	56
	College Park High School Falcons	57	57	55	55
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	56	56	54	54
	Design Tech High School d.tech 1	55	55	53	53
	Design Tech High School d.tech 2	54	54	52	52
	Ernest J. McBride Wolfpack	53	53	51	51
	Parker Parker	44	44	42	42
	Blue and Gold Varsity	60	60	58	58
	Granada High School Matadors	52	52	50	50
	Lowell High School - CA Cardinals	50	50	48	48
	Marin Catholic Wildcats	49	49	47	47
	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	48	48	46	46
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	47	47	44	44
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	46	46	43	43
	Redwood High School Giants	43	43	41	41
$Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon	51	51	49	49
	SOTA High School SOTA	42	42	40	40
	South Torrance High School Spartans	41	41	39	39
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats	40	40	38	38
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	39	39	37	37
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	38	38	36	36
	The Athenian School Owls	62	62	60	60
	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	37	37	64	64
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 1	36	36	63	63
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 2	64	64	62	62

	School / Team	Skipper	Crew
	Acalanes High School	Sophia Browne '20	Jake Botting '22
	Dons	Chase Englehart '22	Lola Rao '20
	Berkeley High School	Lucien Canvinet '20	Ella Wadbrook '22
	Yellowjackets	Rosie Ward '19	Eli Kelley '20
	Blue and Gold	Tessa Greene '22	Mia Nadel '22
	Varsity	Osian Bellinger '21 [1-2] Robert Suddath '21 [3-4]	Elijah Smith '21 [1-2]
	Campolindo High School	Brendan Connelly '23	Morgan Giovinazzi '22
	Cougars	Ronald Hohnsbeen '21	Haley Rasilla '22
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Kyle Gallagher '19	Alexander Woodmansee '20
	Dons	Jacob Titcomb '21 [1-4]	Michael Murphy '22 [1-2] Grace Lawson '19 [3-4]
	College Park High School	Nate Holden '21	Josh Botting '23
	Falcons	Jack Holden '22	Annika Altman '22
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Sebastian Green '22	Alexander Nunez '20
	Cubs	Miles Raneri '21	Nadia Gibbons '21
	Design Tech High School	Jemma Schroder '20	Teddy Knobel '21
	d.tech 1	Timmy Gee '20	Tatem Gee '23
	Design Tech High School	Michael Mcculloch '21 [1-4]	Joss Ettrick '21 [1-2] Charlie Gates '22 [3-4]
	d.tech 2	Josh Goldberg '21 [1-4]	David Jelniker '21 [1-2] Darius Mahamedi '22 [3-4]
	Ernest J. McBride	Maximilian Rosenblad '19	Chase White '19
	Wolfpack	Tristan Feves '22	Kayla Maguire '21
	Granada High School	Peter Marlett '20	Jacob Bauman '22
	Matadors	Rebecca Bauman '20	Joseph Marlett '23
$Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Diego Lockyer '21	Tyler Hoang '21
$Long Beach Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Ryūj Dragon	Elisabeth Rossbach '21	Troy Davidson '20
	Lowell High School - CA	Natalie Novolt '22	Darius Dragnea '22
	Cardinals	Anna Novolt '22	Chloe Marinerstein '22
	Marin Catholic	Lucie Russell '20	Keilah Stypulkoski '19
	Wildcats	Gabriella Von Esmarch '19	Ciara Hall '22
	Mater Dei High School	Dutch Dietrick '20	Sophia Burton '20
	Monarchs	Peter Sangmeister '21	Sophia Mulvania '22
	Palos Verdes High School	Chris Salas '22	Alex Paulson '22
	Sea Kings	Kyle Vaughn '19 [1-4]	Gracie Brummer '21 [1-2] Rosemary Martin '22 [3-4]
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Jackson Hoover '20	Abaym Fritz '20
	Panthers	Matthew Sun '20 [1-4]	Sean Choo '23 [1-2] Eric Slupski '20 [3-4]
	Parker	Gabriel Campbell '22	Katherine Crosby '20
	Parker	Paulo Campbell '22 [1-4]	Carolyn Kravets '21 [1-2] Nikolai Halldorson '22 [3-4]
	Redwood High School	Hailey Thompson '23	Alexandra Sessions '22
	Giants	Bodhi "Bo" Tippo '21	Katherine Norris '22
	SOTA High School	Cal Smolenski '24	Aukje Van Eck '20
	SOTA	Vittoria Adams '22	Ian Grossman '23
	South Torrance High School	Emma Tallman '21	Juliet Gerwin '23
	Spartans	James Sawyer '21	Kieran Lyons '22
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	William Bayliss '20	Paul Ikeda '20
	Wildcats	Evelyn Plam '19	Carolyne Ikeda '19
	Tamalpais High School	Emma Figueredo '19	Aquinnah Todd '21
	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Griffin Chen '19	Lily Hock '20
	Tamalpais High School	Luke Marshall '20	Kendall Scanlan '21
	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Joshua Holzer '20 [1-2] Nickolas Monrique '19 [3-4]	Ian Somerville '21 [1-2]
	The Athenian School	Ethan Arnold '22	Bernie Badain '21
	Owls	Annie Chan '21 [1-4]	Aisleen Welch '20 [1-2] James Mcgaughey '22 [3-4]
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Fredrick Baldauf '20	Charlotte Navin '20
	Breakers	Ian Brown '21	Colette Lee '21
	Torrey Pines High School	Campbell Biemiller '20 [1-3] Alex Day '20 [4]	Sierra Stewart '19 [1-4]
	Falcons 1	Loren Sim '19 [1-2, 4] Isabella Collins '19 [3]	Mike Schugar '19 [1-2, 4]
	Torrey Pines High School	Carolina Altbaum '21	Truman Lazarus '23
	Falcons 2

Conditions — 04/23/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 43% · Pressure 1015.5 hPa

Temperature

78°F

↑ 84°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.8 kn

avg · max 5.7 kn

Gusts to 15.0 kn

From N (6°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1015.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Acalanes: a typical day (−0.02)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.00 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Acalanes by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Acalanes: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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