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MBL Fresh / Soph Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 2 24 8 32
2 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Nantasket 24 13 37
3 Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raiders 24 15 39
4 Sharon High School Sharon High School JV 20 22 42
5 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 1 23 30 53
6 Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 1 20 34 54
7 Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 43 27 70
8 Wayland High School Wayland High School JV 33 40 73
9 Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 44 31 75
10 St. Johns Prep St. Johns Prep JV 46 31 77
11 Brookline High Brookline High Warriors 31 51 82
12 Needham High School Needham High School Rockets 30 53 83
13 Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 42 54 96
14 Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers 65 40 105
15 Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 2 60 46 106
16 Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS JV 55 52 107
17 Wellesley High School Wellesley High School JV 48 68 116
18 Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 53 68 121
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 1 1 6 3 10 20 Janelle Li '21
Fiona Wu '21
Sharon High School Sharon High School JV 15 1 2 2 20 Johan Cho '21
Jazmin Jennings '21
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 1 5 8 7 3 23 Gavin Monaghan` '22
Greta Klein '22
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Nantasket 2 5 5 12 24 Hamilton Barclay '23
George Holt '19
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 2 3 7 8 6 24 Emily Porelle '21
Aileen Macdonald '20
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raiders 4 14 1 5 24 Jordan Feinzig '22 [1-2]
Jack Welburn '22 [3-4]
Stephanos Maramaldi '22 [1-2]
Needham High School Needham High School Rockets 14 3 9 4 30 Ari Hayete '27 [1-4]
Ella Pollan '25 [1-2]
Ashwath Saravanakumar '27 [3-4]
Brookline High Brookline High Warriors 8 2 6 15 31 Benjamin Rizika '22
Gabrielle Rizika '22
Wayland High School Wayland High School JV 10 10 4 9 33 Walker Whitehouse '22
Joshua Zhang '22
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 6 DSQ 16 1 42 Keenan Schilp '22
Ava Korzenlowski '22
Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 9 12 11 11 43 Jane Mathews '22
Mary Grace Shepherd '22
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 7 15 14 8 44 Tucker Reinhard '22
Grace Wood '22
St. Johns Prep St. Johns Prep JV 12 11 10 13 46 Renato Korzinek '21
Enrique Ruiz '22
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School JV 13 4 17 14 48 Will Hynes '22
Rob Connors '22
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 18 16 12 7 53 Oliver Page '22 [1-4]
Laini Schneider '22 [1-2]
Oliver Page '22 [3-4]
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS JV 11 13 15 16 55 Nolan Sayer '22
Sierra Devine '22
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 2 16 9 18 17 60 Will Bordman '21
Alex Yang '21
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers 17 17 13 18 65 Nick Panagoulis '22
Avery Mcstravick '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 2 1 1 5 1 8 Madeline Koelbel '22
Joey Cooper '21
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Nantasket 5 2 2 4 13 Alex Drage '19
Aidan Weymouth '23
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raiders 3 3 7 2 15 Will Kelleher '21
Ben Workman '21
Sharon High School Sharon High School JV 11 7 1 3 22 Helen Brewer '22
Venya Gupta '22
Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 8 4 8 7 27 Olivia Miller '21
Sarah Heneo '21
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 1 4 10 11 5 30 Ian Rappe '18
Ella Notis '23
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 7 5 4 15 31 Sloane Wendel '21
Blake Grisco '22
St. Johns Prep St. Johns Prep JV 10 8 3 10 31 Michael Cunniff '22
Luke Plecinoga '21
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 1 2 15 6 11 34 Adam Yi '21
Inbal Alkalay '22
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers 6 14 12 8 40 Tommy King '22
Charlotte Buehler '22
Wayland High School Wayland High School JV 12 13 9 6 40 Connor Rader '22
Calvin Neprud '22
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 2 15 12 10 9 46 Eric Kim '22
Sean Morrision '22
Brookline High Brookline High Warriors 17 6 15 13 51 Arthur Chen '16
Kate Dragonetti '17
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS JV 9 16 13 14 52 Luke Bangert '22
Hazel Nystrom '22
Needham High School Needham High School Rockets 14 9 14 16 53 Anika Ray '25
Mika Zelikov '23
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 13 11 18 12 54 Eric Cahaly '22
Stepan Barantsev '22
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 16 18 16 18 68 Drew Lawrence '22 [1-2]
Katie Dimmick '22 [3-4]
Katie Dimmick '21 [1-2]
Amelia Weber '22 [3-4]
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School JV RDG 17 17 17 68 Shelby Graham '21
Sadbh O'Kelly-Lynch '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Brookline HighBrookline High Warriors1133
Dover Sherborn RHSDover Sherborn RHS JV2244
Dover Sherborn RHSDover Sherborn RHS Radiers3355
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons 14466
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons 25577
Lincoln Sudbury RHSLincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors6688
Natick High SchoolNatick High School Redhawks7799
Needham High SchoolNeedham High School Rockets881010
Newton Country Day SchoolNewton Country Day School Falcons991111
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Eagles 111111313
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Eagles 212121414
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School JV10101212
St. Johns PrepSt. Johns Prep JV13131515
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Nantasket14141616
Wayland High SchoolWayland High School JV1515
Wayland High SchoolWayland High School Warriors1616
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School JV11
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School Raiders22

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Brookline HighBrookline High Warriors2244
Dover Sherborn RHSDover Sherborn RHS JV3355
Dover Sherborn RHSDover Sherborn RHS Radiers4466
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons 15577
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons 26688
Lincoln Sudbury RHSLincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors7799
Natick High SchoolNatick High School Redhawks881010
Needham High SchoolNeedham High School Rockets991111
Newton Country Day SchoolNewton Country Day School Falcons10101212
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Eagles 112121414
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Eagles 213131515
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School JV11111313
St. Johns PrepSt. Johns Prep JV14141616
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Nantasket1515
Wayland High SchoolWayland High School JV1616
Wayland High SchoolWayland High School Warriors11
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School JV22
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School Raiders1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brookline High Brookline High Benjamin Rizika '22 Gabrielle Rizika '22
Warriors Arthur Chen '16 Kate Dragonetti '17
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Nolan Sayer '22 Sierra Devine '22
JV Luke Bangert '22 Hazel Nystrom '22
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Nick Panagoulis '22 Avery Mcstravick '22
Radiers Tommy King '22 Charlotte Buehler '22
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Gavin Monaghan` '22 Greta Klein '22
Dragons 1 Ian Rappe '18 Ella Notis '23
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Emily Porelle '21 Aileen Macdonald '20
Dragons 2 Madeline Koelbel '22 Joey Cooper '21
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Tucker Reinhard '22 Grace Wood '22
Warriors Sloane Wendel '21 Blake Grisco '22
Natick High School Natick High School Oliver Page '22 [1-4] Laini Schneider '22 [1-2]
Oliver Page '22 [3-4]
Redhawks Drew Lawrence '22 [1-2]
Katie Dimmick '22 [3-4]		 Katie Dimmick '21 [1-2]
Amelia Weber '22 [3-4]
Needham High School Needham High School Ari Hayete '27 [1-4] Ella Pollan '25 [1-2]
Ashwath Saravanakumar '27 [3-4]
Rockets Anika Ray '25 Mika Zelikov '23
Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Jane Mathews '22 Mary Grace Shepherd '22
Falcons Olivia Miller '21 Sarah Heneo '21
Sharon High School Sharon High School Janelle Li '21 Fiona Wu '21
Eagles 1 Adam Yi '21 Inbal Alkalay '22
Sharon High School Sharon High School Will Bordman '21 Alex Yang '21
Eagles 2 Eric Kim '22 Sean Morrision '22
Sharon High School Sharon High School Johan Cho '21 Jazmin Jennings '21
JV Helen Brewer '22 Venya Gupta '22
St. Johns Prep St. Johns Prep Renato Korzinek '21 Enrique Ruiz '22
JV Michael Cunniff '22 Luke Plecinoga '21
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Hamilton Barclay '23 George Holt '19
Nantasket Alex Drage '19 Aidan Weymouth '23
Wayland High School Wayland High School Walker Whitehouse '22 Joshua Zhang '22
JV Connor Rader '22 Calvin Neprud '22
Wayland High School Wayland High School Keenan Schilp '22 Ava Korzenlowski '22
Warriors Eric Cahaly '22 Stepan Barantsev '22
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Will Hynes '22 Rob Connors '22
JV Shelby Graham '21 Sadbh O'Kelly-Lynch '22
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Jordan Feinzig '22 [1-2]
Jack Welburn '22 [3-4]		 Stephanos Maramaldi '22 [1-2]
Raiders Will Kelleher '21 Ben Workman '21

Conditions — 05/04/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 90%  ·  Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 11.7 kn
From NE (48°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine2.0 hrs Humidity90% Pressure1012.5 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at 1 Beach St., Sharon, MA: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at 1 Beach St., Sharon, MA by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at 1 Beach St., Sharon, MA, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →