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NP #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 6 16 22
2 Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 14 9 23
3 Oceanside Collegiate Academy Oceanside Collegiate Academy Landsharks 36 14 50
4 James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 29 23 52
5 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 27 29 56
6 Hough High School Hough High School Varsity 49 21 70
7 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 19 53 72
8 John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Varsity 27 46 73
9 Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers 33 56 89
10 Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Raptors A 54 38 92
11 Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Varsity 63 42 105
12 Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 60 49 109
13 Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 52 67 119
14 Aquinas High School Aquinas High School Irish 62 59 121
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 1 1 2 1 1 6 Zack Carvajal '22 [1-5]
Carter Durst '22 [1-3]
Ian Bosse '21 [4-5]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 5 3 1 2 3 14 William Weinbecker '21
Maggie Mclauchlin '21
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 2 4 6 3 4 19 Clay Myers '21
Abbie Pollitzer '21
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 4 7 3 8 5 27 Ben Usher '23 [1-3]
Tavia Smith '23 [4-5]
Andrew Simpson '23 [1-3]
Wesley Murray '24 [4-5]
John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Varsity 9 2 5 4 7 27 Thomas Mazzeo '22 [1-5]
Neil Bunce '21 [1-2]
Caroline Gilmour '22 [3-5]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 3 OCS 4 5 2 29 Carson Shaw '23
Camdyn Williams '21
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers 8 6 7 6 6 33 Andrea Melnik '23
Davis Murrell '23
Oceanside Collegiate Academy Oceanside Collegiate Academy Landsharks 7 5 9 7 8 36 Gavin Parker '22 [1-5]
Ashton Loring '22 [1-3]
Sean Kittrell '21 [4-5]
Hough High School Hough High School Varsity 6 10 8 10 OCS 49 Evan West '22 [1-5]
Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [1-3]
Sims Whalen '21 [4-5]
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 12 8 11 12 9 52 Tyler Bland '21
Ryan Zammit '21
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Raptors A 14 9 12 9 10 54 Manning Unger '21
Kristen Cooper '21
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 13 11 10 11 OCS 60 Alli Volk '21
Sarina Schmoyer '23
Aquinas High School Aquinas High School Irish 11 12 14 13 12 62 Alex Bagnoni '23
Emily Sternkopf '24
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Varsity 10 DSQ 13 14 11 63 Lewis Bragg '21
Lisee Skoglund '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 1 1 5 1 1 9 Bridget Monahan '22
Tia Schoening '22
Oceanside Collegiate Academy Oceanside Collegiate Academy Landsharks 4 3 2 3 2 14 Ashton Loring '22
Jane Herbert '24
Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 3 2 1 5 5 16 William Hussey '22 [1-3]
Robert Silcox '21 [4-5]
Laura Johnston '21 [1-3]
Hough High School Hough High School Varsity 2 6 4 6 3 21 Barry Kaplan '27 [1-3]
Sully O'Donnell '21 [4-5]
Holladay Crook '22 [1-3]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 5 5 3 2 8 23 Jack Mckenzie '23
William Rawlings '22
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 6 4 6 7 6 29 Francis (Mac) Humphrey '22
Kellen Donlon '22
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Raptors A 12 7 7 8 4 38 Ty Osmond '23 [1-3]
Clay Hershey '22 [4-5]
Will Muirhead '22 [1-3]
Gabriel Medlin '22 [4-5]
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Varsity 7 8 8 10 9 42 Graham Cosby '23
Edward Thompson '23
John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Varsity 8 9 10 4 OCS 46 Neil Bunce '21
Andrew Todesco '22
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 9 10 9 11 10 49 Alessia Decamp '22 [1-3]
Preston Miller '23 [4-5]
Hayden Sidak '21 [1-3]
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 10 11 12 13 7 53 Court Martin '21
Brock Blonski '22
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers 11 12 13 9 11 56 Sarah Marshall '21
Logan Tunick '21
Aquinas High School Aquinas High School Irish BKD BKD 11 12 12 59 Reid Poteet '23
Diego Pryor '24
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 13 13 14 14 13 67 Ryan Pannenbacker '22
Chelsea Puncochar '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Academic Magnet High SchoolAcademic Magnet High School Raptors A1414141414
Aquinas High SchoolAquinas High School Irish22222
Ashley HallAshley Hall Panthers44444
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity33333
Bishop Kenny High School - FLBishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny88888
Hough High SchoolHough High School Varsity1313131313
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity77777
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Hoggard99999
John Paul II (SC)John Paul II (SC) Varsity1010101010
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats1212121212
Oceanside Collegiate AcademyOceanside Collegiate Academy Landsharks11111
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity55555
Porter-Gaud SchoolPorter-Gaud School Varsity66666
Wando High SchoolWando High School Wando Warriors1111111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Academic Magnet High SchoolAcademic Magnet High School Raptors A1414141414
Aquinas High SchoolAquinas High School Irish22222
Ashley HallAshley Hall Panthers44444
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity33333
Bishop Kenny High School - FLBishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny88888
Hough High SchoolHough High School Varsity1313131313
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity77777
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Hoggard99999
John Paul II (SC)John Paul II (SC) Varsity1010101010
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats1212121212
Oceanside Collegiate AcademyOceanside Collegiate Academy Landsharks11111
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity55555
Porter-Gaud SchoolPorter-Gaud School Varsity66666
Wando High SchoolWando High School Wando Warriors1111111111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Manning Unger '21 Kristen Cooper '21
Raptors A Ty Osmond '23 [1-3]
Clay Hershey '22 [4-5]		 Will Muirhead '22 [1-3]
Gabriel Medlin '22 [4-5]
Aquinas High School Aquinas High School Alex Bagnoni '23 Emily Sternkopf '24
Irish Reid Poteet '23 Diego Pryor '24
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Andrea Melnik '23 Davis Murrell '23
Panthers Sarah Marshall '21 Logan Tunick '21
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Clay Myers '21 Abbie Pollitzer '21
Varsity Court Martin '21 Brock Blonski '22
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL William Weinbecker '21 Maggie Mclauchlin '21
Bishop Kenny Bridget Monahan '22 Tia Schoening '22
Hough High School Hough High School Evan West '22 [1-5] Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [1-3]
Sims Whalen '21 [4-5]
Varsity Barry Kaplan '27 [1-3]
Sully O'Donnell '21 [4-5]		 Holladay Crook '22 [1-3]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Carson Shaw '23 Camdyn Williams '21
Varsity Jack Mckenzie '23 William Rawlings '22
John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Thomas Mazzeo '22 [1-5] Neil Bunce '21 [1-2]
Caroline Gilmour '22 [3-5]
Varsity Neil Bunce '21 Andrew Todesco '22
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Ben Usher '23 [1-3]
Tavia Smith '23 [4-5]		 Andrew Simpson '23 [1-3]
Wesley Murray '24 [4-5]
Hoggard Francis (Mac) Humphrey '22 Kellen Donlon '22
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Tyler Bland '21 Ryan Zammit '21
Wildcats Ryan Pannenbacker '22 Chelsea Puncochar '22
Oceanside Collegiate Academy Oceanside Collegiate Academy Gavin Parker '22 [1-5] Ashton Loring '22 [1-3]
Sean Kittrell '21 [4-5]
Landsharks Ashton Loring '22 Jane Herbert '24
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Alli Volk '21 Sarina Schmoyer '23
Varsity Alessia Decamp '22 [1-3]
Preston Miller '23 [4-5]		 Hayden Sidak '21 [1-3]
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Lewis Bragg '21 Lisee Skoglund '23
Varsity Graham Cosby '23 Edward Thompson '23
Wando High School Wando High School Zack Carvajal '22 [1-5] Carter Durst '22 [1-3]
Ian Bosse '21 [4-5]
Wando Warriors William Hussey '22 [1-3]
Robert Silcox '21 [4-5]		 Laura Johnston '21 [1-3]

Conditions — 02/27/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

33°F
↑ 37°F   ↓ 21°F
Feels like 27°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From S (170°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1014.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at James Island Yacht Club: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.35 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at James Island Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at James Island Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →