Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephan Baker '22 | Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2 | 3/3 | 2.88 | 4.98 | +2.10 | 97th → 99th | 3.3 | 5% | 4.0 / 13.2 |
| 2 | Benjamin Smith '22 | Cape Fear Academy | 3/3 | 2.87 | 4.53 | +1.66 | 97th → 99th | 2.3 | 5% | 4.7 / 13.3 |
| 3 | Amaya Escudero '22 | McIntosh High School | 3/3 | 1.47u | 4.50 | +3.03 | 72nd → 99th | 6.2 | 1% | 5.3 / 20.1 |
| 4 | Guthrie Braun '22 | Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 4 | 3/3 | 3.36 | 4.05 | +0.69 | 99th → 99th | 0.5 | 22% | 6.7 / 11.0 |
| 5 | Umi Noritake '24 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 3 | 3/3 | 2.36 | 3.72 | +1.37 | 89th → 99th | 1.7 | 11% | 8.3 / 15.7 |
| 6 | Jack Redmond '22 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2 | 3/3 | 2.79 | 3.29 | +0.49 | 96th → 99th | 0.3 | 32% | 10.0 / 13.5 |
| 6 | Jackson Mcaliley '23 | Ransom Everglades School Raiders 5 | 3/3 | 3.14 | 3.05 | −0.09 | 99th → 99th | 0.0 | 41% | 10.0 / 11.8 |
| 8 | Jake Homberger '27 | William T. Dwyer High School | 3/3 | 2.92 | 3.13 | +0.22 | 98th → 99th | 0.1 | 37% | 10.7 / 13.1 |
| 9 | Audrey Russler '26 | Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart | 3/3 | 1.82 | 2.69 | +0.87 | 81st → 95th | 0.8 | 24% | 12.7 / 18.2 |
| 9 | Javier Garcon '21 | Ransom Everglades School Raiders 4 | 3/3 | 3.36 | 7.38 | +4.03 | 99th → 99th | 4.9 | 64% | 12.7 / 11.2 |
| 11 | Kaitlyn Hamilton '22 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1 | 3/3 | 2.30 | 2.81 | +0.51 | 88th → 96th | 0.3 | 33% | 13.0 / 16.0 |
| 11 | Morgan Smith '23 | Lemon Bay High School | 3/3 | 2.70 | 2.57 | −0.12 | 95th → 93rd | 0.0 | 46% | 13.0 / 14.0 |
| 13 | Audrey Foley '24 | The Pine School | 3/3 | 1.65 | 2.74 | +1.09 | 76th → 95th | 1.2 | 19% | 13.7 / 19.3 |
| 14 | Alex Liebel '23 | Cardinal Mooney High School | 3/3 | 1.01 | 2.71 | +1.70 | 58th → 95th | 2.6 | 14% | 14.3 / 22.1 |
| 15 | Will Rucker '24 | Berkeley High School (SC) | 3/3 | 3.17 | 2.48 | −0.69 | 99th → 92nd | 0.7 | 78% | 15.7 / 11.8 |
| 16 | Heidi Hicks '21 | Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 3 | 3/3 | 1.23 | 2.22 | +0.98 | 65th → 87th | 1.0 | 24% | 17.0 / 21.4 |
| 16 | Tommy Mccormick '23 | MAST Academy | 3/3 | 1.21u | 2.26 | +1.05 | 65th → 88th | 1.1 | 28% | 17.0 / 21.3 |
| 18 | Emily Allen '21 | St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 1 | 3/3 | 2.03 | 2.05 | +0.02 | 83rd → 83rd | 0.0 | 56% | 18.0 / 17.3 |
| 18 | Sidney Moyer '23 | St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 2 | 3/3 | 2.37 | 1.80 | −0.57 | 89th → 80th | 0.5 | 68% | 18.0 / 15.7 |
| 20 | Ethan Danielson '22 | Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 2 | 3/3 | 2.46 | 2.00 | −0.46 | 91st → 83rd | 0.3 | 75% | 18.7 / 15.0 |
| 21 | Spencer Dominguez '23 | Miami Beach Senior High School | 3/3 | 2.83 | 2.43 | −0.41 | 96th → 91st | 0.1 | 90% | 21.0 / 13.4 |
| 22 | Kevin Gosselin '23 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 4 | 3/3 | 1.57 | 2.58 | +1.01 | 74th → 93rd | 0.7 | 60% | 21.3 / 19.6 |
| 22 | Preston Weaver '23 | Tampa Christian Community School | 3/3 | 1.63u | 1.62 | −0.01 | 76th → 75th | 0.0 | 63% | 21.3 / 19.0 |
| 22 | William Weinbecker '21 | Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 4 | 3/3 | 2.25 | 1.76 | −0.49 | 87th → 79th | 0.3 | 79% | 21.3 / 16.2 |
| 25 | Kate Danielson '24 | Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 1 | 3/3 | 2.06 | 1.21 | −0.85 | 84th → 65th | 1.1 | 77% | 21.7 / 17.1 |
| 26 | Emery Diemar '24 | Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1 | 3/3 | 2.34 | 0.91 | −1.43 | 89th → 54th | 3.4 | 87% | 23.0 / 15.7 |
| 26 | Sam Dreyfuss '21 | Barron Collier High | 3/3 | 1.16u | 1.21 | +0.05 | 63rd → 65th | 0.0 | 58% | 23.0 / 21.5 |
| 28 | Reid Poteet '23 | Aquinas High School Fighting Irish 1 | 3/3 | -0.25 | 1.45 | +1.69 | 15th → 71st | 2.6 | 24% | 23.7 / 27.1 |
| 29 | Scott Busey '23 | Episcopal School of Jacksonville | 3/3 | 0.49 | 0.64 | +0.15 | 38th → 44th | 0.0 | 62% | 26.7 / 24.2 |
| 30 | Mary Katherine Monahan '24 | Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 2 | 3/3 | 1.41 | 0.64 | −0.77 | 70th → 44th | 0.9 | 85% | 27.7 / 20.3 |
| 31 | Alex Bagnoni '23 | Aquinas High School Fighting Irish 2 | 3/3 | 0.20 | 0.42 | +0.22 | 27th → 34th | 0.1 | 65% | 28.7 / 25.5 |
| 32 | Boris Bialer '22 | Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3 | 3/3 | 1.31 | -0.38 | −1.69 | 67th → 13th | 3.6 | 92% | 29.7 / 20.9 |
| 33 | Davis Mclauchlin '24 | Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 3 | 3/3 | 1.02 | -1.81 | −2.83 | 58th → 1st | 7.0 | 96% | 31.7 / 22.1 |
| 34 | Bridget Monahan '22 | Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 1 | 3/3 | 2.08 | — | — | 84th → — | 0.0 | >99% | 35.0 / 17.1 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
