NJISA 2022 Spring Series 8

HostDonovan Catholic
Date05/18/2022
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Toms River North	Mariners	11	16	27
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	13	16	29
3	Biotechnology High School	Nerds	21	10	31
4	Ranney School	Panthers 1	5	29	34
5	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	18	18	36
6	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	32	21	53
7	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	35	23	58
8	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	32	32	64
9	Toms River South	Indians	34	30	64
10	Ranney School	Panthers 2	38	40	78
11	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	46	39	85
12	Westfield High School	Blue Devils	45	42	87
13	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	40	51	91
14	Our Lady of Mercy Academy	Villagers	51	61	112
15	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	59	54	113
16	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	66	65	131

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	2	1	1	1	5	Alexa Whitman '22 Ashley Abboud '22
Toms River North	Mariners	1	2	3	5	11	Everett Botwinick '22 Blake Jankowski '23
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	3	4	4	2	13	Turner Ryon '25 Natalie Shaw '23
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	5	8	2	3	18	James Kopack '24 Caroline Felser '24
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	4	3	10	4	21	Benson Chiles '22 Ronan Downie '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	6	7	11	8	32	Bryce Vitiello '23 Kyle Lombardino '25
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	7	9	6	10	32	Kennedy Laureigh '22 [1-2] No Show [3-4] No Show [1-2]
Toms River South	Indians	12	10	5	7	34	Sonja Krajewski '22 [1-4] Cali Krean '24 [1-2] Jack Wasik '25 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	11	7	9	35	Noah Kuzloski '23 Ryan Mullholland '25
Ranney School	Panthers 2	11	12	9	6	38	Grace Bray '23 [1-4] Alexandria Forrest '22 [1-2] Matthew Dupree '25 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	10	5	12	13	40	Andrew Chiles '23 Erick Shi '24
Westfield High School	Blue Devils	15	6	13	11	45	Owen Carolan '22 [1-4] Evan Hickey '22 [1-2] Anna Robertson '24 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	13	13	8	12	46	Ella Bilow '22 [1-4] Vanessa Mccartin '26 [1-2] Margaret Burns '27 [3-4]
Our Lady of Mercy Academy	Villagers	9	14	14	14	51	Imogene Nuss '24 Mia Catanese '24
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	14	15	15	15	59	Logan Connolly '24 Kaitlyn Di Dia '24
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	16	16	DNS	DNS	66	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	5	1	1	3	10	Gabby Fontana '23 [1-4] Aiden Welch '24 [1-2] Andrew Pepe '23 [3-4]
Toms River North	Mariners	2	2	8	4	16	Iliana Vasslides '23 Stephanie Maulshagen '23
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	8	3	3	2	16	Belle Placa '25 [1-4] No Show [1-2] Natalie Shaw '23 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	1	10	6	1	18	Kevin Brooksbank '23 [1-4] Nora Ciak '23 [1-2] Jeffrey Jackson '24 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	6	4	2	9	21	Mitchell Hnatt '24 Nicholas Cunha '23
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	4	6	5	8	23	Luke Pennisi '24 Daniel Stephan '24
Ranney School	Panthers 1	7	9	7	6	29	Jack Whitman '23 [1-4] Tomas Mora '23 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
Toms River South	Indians	9	7	4	10	30	Mallory Higham '24 [1-2] Kelly Robinson '24 [3-4] Sophia Delucca '24 [1-2] Mollie Smith '25 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	10	5	10	7	32	Erin Little '24 Noah Tallman '25
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	11	8	9	11	39	Allison Beisel '24 [1-2] Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4] Alex Dacosta '24 [1-2] Riley Mueller '27 [3-4]
Ranney School	Panthers 2	13	11	11	5	40	Anthony Abboud '25 [1-4] Sophia Behar '25 [1-2] Katelyn Weiss '25 [3-4]
Westfield High School	Blue Devils	3	13	14	12	42	Seamus Carolan '25 [1-4] Danny Mcdevitt '25 [1-2] Evan Hickey '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	12	12	13	14	51	Matthew Wilhelm '24 Donald Johnston '25
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	14	15	12	13	54	Richard Mcgowan '25 [1-4] Nicholas Fatigate '24 [1-2] Dan Drennan '24 [3-4]
Our Lady of Mercy Academy	Villagers	DNF	14	15	15	61	Natalie Nuss '25 [1-4] Delaney Shur '23 [1-2] Anabelle Sawyer '25 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	15	DNF	DNS	16	65	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Biotechnology High School Nerds	12	12	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	13	13	13	13
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	14	14	14	14
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	15	15	15	15
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	16	16	16	16
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	17	17	17	17
Our Lady of Mercy Academy Villagers	18	18	18	18
Ranney School Panthers 1	19	19	19	19
Ranney School Panthers 2	20	20	20	20
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	1	1	1	1
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	2	2	2	2
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	3	3	3	3
Toms River North Mariners	4	4	4	4
Toms River South Indians	5	5	5	5
Trinity Hall Monarchs	6	6	6	6
Westfield High School Blue Devils	7	7	7	7

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Biotechnology High School Nerds	12	12	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	13	13	13	13
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	14	14	14	14
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	15	15	15	15
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	16	16	16	16
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	17	17	17	17
Our Lady of Mercy Academy Villagers	18	18	18	18
Ranney School Panthers 1	19	19	19	19
Ranney School Panthers 2	20	20	20	20
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	1	1	1	1
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	2	2	2	2
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	3	3	3	3
Toms River North Mariners	4	4	4	4
Toms River South Indians	5	5	5	5
Trinity Hall Monarchs	6	6	6	6
Westfield High School Blue Devils	7	7	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Biotechnology High School	Benson Chiles '22	Ronan Downie '22
Nerds	Gabby Fontana '23 [1-4]	Aiden Welch '24 [1-2] Andrew Pepe '23 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Bryce Vitiello '23	Kyle Lombardino '25
Colts 1	Mitchell Hnatt '24	Nicholas Cunha '23
Christian Brothers Academy	Noah Kuzloski '23	Ryan Mullholland '25
Colts 2	Luke Pennisi '24	Daniel Stephan '24
Christian Brothers Academy	Andrew Chiles '23	Erick Shi '24
Colts 3	Matthew Wilhelm '24	Donald Johnston '25
Donovan Catholic High School	James Kopack '24	Caroline Felser '24
Griffins 1	Kevin Brooksbank '23 [1-4]	Nora Ciak '23 [1-2] Jeffrey Jackson '24 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Logan Connolly '24	Kaitlyn Di Dia '24
Griffins 2	Richard Mcgowan '25 [1-4]	Nicholas Fatigate '24 [1-2] Dan Drennan '24 [3-4]
Our Lady of Mercy Academy	Imogene Nuss '24	Mia Catanese '24
Villagers	Natalie Nuss '25 [1-4]	Delaney Shur '23 [1-2] Anabelle Sawyer '25 [3-4]
Ranney School	Alexa Whitman '22	Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers 1	Jack Whitman '23 [1-4]	Tomas Mora '23 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
Ranney School	Grace Bray '23 [1-4]	Alexandria Forrest '22 [1-2] Matthew Dupree '25 [3-4]
Panthers 2	Anthony Abboud '25 [1-4]	Sophia Behar '25 [1-2] Katelyn Weiss '25 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Turner Ryon '25	Natalie Shaw '23
Rams 1	Belle Placa '25 [1-4]	No Show [1-2] Natalie Shaw '23 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Kennedy Laureigh '22 [1-2] No Show [3-4]	No Show [1-2]
Rams 2	Erin Little '24	Noah Tallman '25
St. Augustine Prep School	No Show	No Show
Hermits	No Show	No Show
Toms River North	Everett Botwinick '22	Blake Jankowski '23
Mariners	Iliana Vasslides '23	Stephanie Maulshagen '23
Toms River South	Sonja Krajewski '22 [1-4]	Cali Krean '24 [1-2] Jack Wasik '25 [3-4]
Indians	Mallory Higham '24 [1-2] Kelly Robinson '24 [3-4]	Sophia Delucca '24 [1-2] Mollie Smith '25 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Ella Bilow '22 [1-4]	Vanessa Mccartin '26 [1-2] Margaret Burns '27 [3-4]
Monarchs	Allison Beisel '24 [1-2] Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4]	Alex Dacosta '24 [1-2] Riley Mueller '27 [3-4]
Westfield High School	Owen Carolan '22 [1-4]	Evan Hickey '22 [1-2] Anna Robertson '24 [3-4]
Blue Devils	Seamus Carolan '25 [1-4]	Danny Mcdevitt '25 [1-2] Evan Hickey '22 [3-4]

Conditions — 05/18/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1015.2 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.9 kn

avg · max 7.1 kn

Gusts to 15.2 kn

From W (268°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1015.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Donovan Catholic: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.18)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.17

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.18 means a rating gap counts about 16% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Donovan Catholic by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Donovan Catholic, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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