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Rock the New Year

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 7 7
2 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 7 7
3 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 10 10
4 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 21 21
5 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 23 23
6 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 28 28
7 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 33 33
8 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 33 33
9 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 45 45
10 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 46 46
11 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 47 47
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 1 1 3 2 7 Connor Fanberg '26 [1, 3-4]
Caleb Keister '22 [2]
Aidan Mckoin '26 [1-2, 4]
Caleb Keister '22 [3]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 2 3 1 1 7 Jeremy Reddoch '23
C.T. Ilgenfritz '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 3 2 2 3 10 Ruston Breisacher '23
Karoline Burroughs '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 6 6 5 4 21 Jack Mullins '23
Michael Dawley '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 7 7 4 5 23 Landon Newton '26
Lane Burroughs '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 8 8 6 6 28 Wynn Danielson '27
Jonah Grumme '26
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 4 5 DNS DNS 33 Caroline Rozands '25
Ceceilia Zinsel '25
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 5 4 DNS DNS 33 Aiden Castle '25
Jackson Timberlake '27
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 9 DNF DNS DNS 45 Maggie Lob '26
Rudy Richter '26
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 10 DNF DNS DNS 46 Estella Holland '26
Madeline Murray '26
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 11 DNF DNS DNS 47 Emma Pscenicka '26 [1]
Kaybree Cushenberry '26 [2-4]
Riley Schmidt '26 [1]
Ella Ory '26 [2-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays5800580058005800
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 17777
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 226262626
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 393939393
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4130130130130
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 56148614861486148
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 68719871987198719
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 12222
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 23333
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 34444
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 45555

Conditions — 01/15/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 91%  ·  Pressure 1010.1 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From S (182°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine3.1 hrs Humidity91% Pressure1010.1 hPa Rain0.31 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.31)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →