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TC Tier 3 14 mayo

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 8 6 14
2 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 12 3 15
3 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 12 13 25
4 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 18 14 32
5 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black 10 23 33
6 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 17 18 35
7 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 18 17 35
8 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 16 19 35
9 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC ms 25 23 48
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 4 3 1 8 Derek Hartman '22
Charlie Vink '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black 1 1 8 10 Colin Gordon '22
Moses Coco '25
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 2 7 3 12 Alex Reynolds '24
Malia Dickinson '23
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 6 4 2 12 Nyle Eggert '24
Brooklyn Verplank '25
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 7 2 7 16 Tommy Taylor '23
Cole Harding '23
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 3 8 6 17 Luke Adams '24
Frannie Harbold '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 5 9 4 18 Isley Moshier '25
Grace Vanstratt '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 8 5 5 18 Cj Enoksen '25
Anders Lyons '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC ms 9 6 DNS 25 Grant Miller '24
Bode Dykstra '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 1 1 1 3 Jack Hubbard '25
Joshua Hacker '24
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 2 2 2 6 Lila Torresen '25
Kari Taylor '25
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 4 6 3 13 Case Brooks '24
Rory Aiken '28
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 3 5 6 14 Daniel Kotsekon '25
Jackson Hochstetler '24
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 6 3 8 17 Winston Hegg '26
Max Braund '24
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 7 7 4 18 Tyler Winowiecki '23
Nickolaus Goodwin '27
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 5 4 DNS 19 Becky Lechota '25
Sophia Barbas '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC ms 8 8 7 23 Trey Harding '23
Holden Trapp '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black 9 9 5 23 Simon Hegg '24
John Madion '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.290+0.29
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed171715
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed161614
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed141410
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue151511
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed997
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC black and gold11119
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC gold and black10108
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC ms8817
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed7716

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed161614
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed151511
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed11119
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue141410
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed8817
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC black and gold10108
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC gold and black997
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC ms7716
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed171715
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Derek Hartman '22 Charlie Vink '27
GH Blue Mixed Lila Torresen '25 Kari Taylor '25
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Nyle Eggert '24 Brooklyn Verplank '25
Red Mixed Jack Hubbard '25 Joshua Hacker '24
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Tommy Taylor '23 Cole Harding '23
TCSF Mixed Becky Lechota '25 Sophia Barbas '26
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Luke Adams '24 Frannie Harbold '27
TCSF Varsity Blue Tyler Winowiecki '23 Nickolaus Goodwin '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Isley Moshier '25 Grace Vanstratt '27
TCC Mixed Winston Hegg '26 Max Braund '24
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Cj Enoksen '25 Anders Lyons '26
TCC black and gold Daniel Kotsekon '25 Jackson Hochstetler '24
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Colin Gordon '22 Moses Coco '25
TCC gold and black Simon Hegg '24 John Madion '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Grant Miller '24 Bode Dykstra '27
TCC ms Trey Harding '23 Holden Trapp '26
Traverse City West Traverse City West Alex Reynolds '24 Malia Dickinson '23
TCW Mixed Case Brooks '24 Rory Aiken '28

Conditions — 05/14/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1011.7 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From WNW (294°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1011.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.23 ± 0.34)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →