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TC Tier 3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 23 11 34
2 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 19 24 43
3 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 29 22 51
4 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 30 30 60
5 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 22 45 67
6 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 15 53 68
7 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black 40 34 74
8 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 48 26 74
9 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 44 42 86
10 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 60 49 109
11 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 72 72 144
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 1 1 4 7 1 15 Lj Nykamp '25
Jonas Pearson '25
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 5 2 4 3 3 2 19 Andrew Godmer '22
Max Braund '24
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 8 3 2 1 5 3 22 Greta Traver '23
Hanan Lomax '25
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 3 9 RDG 2 1 4 23 Derek Hartman '22
Gavin Yonker '24
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 2 5 3 6 8 5 29 Caroline Henry '23
Alexis Twa '26
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 4 4 6 5 2 9 30 Gabe Maday '22
Frannie Harbold '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black 9 6 5 7 6 7 40 Lucas Rodenroth '24
Simon Hegg '24
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 6 7 8 8 9 6 44 Lila Torresen '25
Ben Dornbush '22
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 10 8 9 9 4 8 48 Colin Gordon '22
Rory Aiken '28
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 7 DNS 7 10 DNS DNS 60 Luke Adams '24
Tyler Winowiecki '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 72 Cj Enoksen '25 [1-4]
Case Brooks '24 [5-6]
Moses Coco '25 [1-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 2 1 1 1 1 5 11 Payden Pittman '24
Joshua Hacker '24
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 4 9 2 2 3 2 22 Jack Hubbard '25
Charlie Vink '27
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 6 2 7 3 2 4 24 Alex Reynolds '24
Ella Beck '22
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 5 5 4 4 5 3 26 Isley Moshier '25
Grace Vanstratt '27
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 1 4 5 6 8 6 30 Cameron Keillor '24
Anders Lyons '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black 3 DNF 9 5 4 1 34 Grant Miller '24
Holden Trapp '26
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 10 6 3 9 6 8 42 Andrew Twa '24
Lucas Williams '26
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 7 8 8 8 7 7 45 Lily Johnson '23
Anneke Hackney '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 8 3 10 10 9 9 49 Daniel Kotsekon '25
Winston Hegg '26
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 9 7 6 7 DNF DNS 53 Kiarra Bracelly '25
Olive Mcgough '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 72 Tommy Taylor '23
Cole Harding '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.290+0.29
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed33881010
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue66991111
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Mixed8810101414
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed101014141616
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed9911111515
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed111115151717
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed1616181866
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black141416161818
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC black and gold17173388
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC gold and black1515171733
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green18186699

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed66991111
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue8810101414
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Mixed9911111515
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed111115151717
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed101014141616
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed141416161818
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed17173388
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black1515171733
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC black and gold18186699
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC gold and black1616181866
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green33881010

Conditions — 04/30/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 40%  ·  Pressure 1016.1 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.7 kn
avg  ·  max 15.6 kn
Gusts to 30.9 kn
From ESE (123°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine4.5 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1016.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →