2024 PCISA #4 Golden Bear Silver Fleet

HostAlameda
Date02/24/2024
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#		School	Team	A	B	TOT
1		Harvard-Westlake	Varsity	40	73	113
2		South High School	Spartans	67	49	116
3		Dos Pueblos	Chargers	33	83	116
4		Stevenson School	Pirates 1	98	34	132
5		Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	102	45	147
6		Loyola High School (CA)	Cubs	109	48	157
7		San Pedro High School	Pirates	67	91	158
8	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Dragons	70	89	159
9		Marin Catholic	Wildcats	20	141	161
10		Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	65	107	172
11		San Domenico High School	Panthers	93	81	174
12		Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	109	71	180
13		Blue and Gold	Varsity	58	130	188
14		Design Tech High School	Dragons	135	72	207
15		Bishop's School	Knights	99	135	234
16		Stevenson School	Pirates 2	126	111	237
17		St. John Bosco High School	St. John Bosco	159	84	243
18		Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	141	108	249
19		Miramonte High School	Matadors	113	152	265
20		Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	146	119	265
21		Carmel High School	Padres	169	102	271
22		St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	87	185	272
23		Coronado Islanders	Islanders	125	150	275
24		SOTA	SOTA	108	173	281
25		Pacific Grove High School	Breakers	130	161	291
26		The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	143	149	292
27		Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	170	124	294
28		The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	190	104	294
29		Archbishop Riordan	Crusaders	192	129	321
30		Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	136	198	334
31		Campolindo High School	Cougars	175	169	344

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	8	1	2	2	3	1	3	20	Leo Robillard '25 [1-7] Stella Ward Turko '27 [1-2] Sean Chia '26 [3-4] Amelia Werstler '26 [5-6] Ben Brooks '24 [7]
	Dos Pueblos	Chargers	13	5	1	1	BKD	3	5	33	Porter Murray '26 Leo Korman '26
	Harvard-Westlake	Varsity	6	2	BKD	7	6	5	8	40	Matthew Commons '25 Helena Salas '25
	Blue and Gold	Varsity	10	9	14	4	11	9	1	58	Sam Suddath '26 Hanah Yin '26
	Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	12	7	7	9	19	2	9	65	Oliver '27 Catalina Brody '24
	South High School	Spartans	2	16	13	10	2	11	13	67	Joaquin Desrochers '25 Aurora Pittman '25
	San Pedro High School	Pirates	15	6	3	6	16	19	2	67	Nicholas Parsnik '26 Gwen Hildebrand '25
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Dragons	4	3	6	OCS	5	8	12	70	Jessica Green '25 Elizabeth Nash '28
	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	17	17	5	3	18	13	14	87	Melina Ahrens '27 Ella Schwartz '27
	San Domenico High School	Panthers	20	14	18	OCS	1	4	4	93	Merritt Sellers '26 Dylan Song '25
	Stevenson School	Pirates 1	11	25	15	12	9	10	16	98	Abbie Zhang '24 [1-7] Patrick O'Hara '27 [1-2] Sadie Marinerstein '24 [3-7]
	Bishop's School	Knights	7	10	17	19	17	22	7	99	Celeste Oder '26 Sophie Brunner '26
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	16	11	23	11	8	18	15	102	Ryan Tonkovich '26 Natalie Tonkovich '24
	SOTA	SOTA	19	4	20	OCS	10	17	6	108
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	3	8	12	5	DSQ	29	20	109	Nic Messano '28 Gavin Steuerwald '24
	Loyola High School (CA)	Cubs	14	18	4	16	15	25	17	109	Luke Ondrey '25 [1-7] Gus Drynan '27 [1-3, 5-7] Giovanni Valencia '24 [4]
	Miramonte High School	Matadors	5	24	16	14	28	16	10	113	Austin Teodorovic '24 Ella Maas '31
	Coronado Islanders	Islanders	1	12	21	OCS	13	20	26	125	Trey Gregory '26 William Bosworth '27
	Stevenson School	Pirates 2	21	13	11	8	26	23	24	126	Aaron Eagle '27 [1-7] Dillan Spence '27 [1-2] Claire Lee '26 [3-7]
	Pacific Grove High School	Breakers	26	15	8	13	22	15	31	130	Kieran Sherlock '25 James Archer '27
	Design Tech High School	Dragons	9	19	9	OCS	21	27	18	135	Will Kizer '25 [1-7] Sebastian Lin '26 [1-2, 5-7] Sam Cheng '25 [3-4]
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	25	28	19	23	4	14	23	136	Cato Escamilla Geisler '23 [1-7] Emilio Bottrell-Rogers '27 [1-2] Lila Rodet '27 [3-7]
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	22	26	25	24	12	21	11	141	Jason Lester '24 [1-4] Bea Littler '27 [5-7] Charles Winstead '24 [1-7]
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	27	31	29	21	7	6	22	143	Gus Gossett '27 Jt Scott '28
	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	18	23	28	18	23	7	29	146	Mark Novak '28 [1-7] Tomer Polak '26 [1-4, 7] Jaiden Jacobs '24 [5-6]
	St. John Bosco High School	St. John Bosco	29	21	24	17	14	24	30	159	Roman Galindo '25 Michael Beaird '25
	Carmel High School	Padres	24	20	22	25	25	28	25	169	Lyric Gomez '28 Rosemary Savukinas (Monterey High) '28
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	23	22	27	15	24	31	28	170	Dersen Eddowes '24 Jarret Meza-Torne '26
	Campolindo High School	Cougars	28	27	26	20	29	26	19	175	Liam Hearn '24 Kieran Whittome '27
	The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	31	30	31	OCS	27	12	27	190	Lusia Foster '26 Charlotte Mcgeary '24
	Archbishop Riordan	Crusaders	30	29	30	22	30	30	21	192	Nolan Balocki '27 [1-7] Kaia Burris '27 [1-4] Elizabeth Walsh '26 [5-6] Paige Walsh '27 [7]

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
	Stevenson School	Pirates 1	4	7	14	1	5	1	2	34	Patrick O'Hara '27 [1-2] Max Mccormick '24 [3-7] Sadie Marinerstein '24 [1-2] Patrick O'Hara '27 [3-7]
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	2	1	10	3	18	10	1	45	Mila Kane '25 Sebastian Gebler '27
	Loyola High School (CA)	Cubs	8	4	8	4	2	7	15	48	Carsten Zieger '24 [1-7] Giovanni Valencia '24 [1-3, 5-7] Jonas Stroh '24 [4]
	South High School	Spartans	1	5	1	7	6	17	12	49	Reese Lieser '25 Kayla Spalding '24
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	6	3	3	DSQ	1	8	18	71	Jason Chan '26 [1-7] Westley Johnson '26 [1-2, 5-7] Tatianna Faragallah '27 [3-4]
	Design Tech High School	Dragons	20	2	5	14	17	BKD	4	72	Skye Crawford '25 [1-7] John Nix '25 [1-2, 5-7] Lorelai Hartman '25 [3-4]
	Harvard-Westlake	Varsity	15	10	13	8	3	2	22	73	Sean Ozalpasan '25 Mira Goldman '27
	San Domenico High School	Panthers	19	6	4	10	11	21	10	81	Seamus Crain '26 [1-7] Willem Morrow '27 [1-2, 5] Xander Helming '26 [3-4, 6-7]
	Dos Pueblos	Chargers	3	9	18	2	10	22	19	83	Quincy Barnwood '26 Henry Janka '26
	St. John Bosco High School	St. John Bosco	10	12	2	9	15	5	31	84	Samuel Mohinani '24 Kaya Gagnon '27
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Dragons	5	8	7	17	21	18	13	89	Olivia Corzine '28 Eric Panebianco '28
	San Pedro High School	Pirates	17	15	21	5	8	4	21	91	Iliana Hernandez '27 [1-2] Kennedy Hildebrand '27 [3-7] Niko Seiple '27 [1-2, 5-6] Bradley Uyematsu '25 [3-4, 7]
	Carmel High School	Padres	28	13	6	12	22	14	7	102	June Emerson '28 Samuel Weaver '26
	The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	16	26	20	6	12	16	8	104	Charlie Fine '25 Theo Li '25
	Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	7	16	24	15	19	23	3	107	Katelyn Chang '27 Lalo Miali '24
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	25	31	26	13	4	3	6	108	Vaugn Neumann '27 [1-2] Evie Littler '25 [3-7] Sean Chia '26 [1-2] Vaugn Neumann '27 [3-7]
	Stevenson School	Pirates 2	21	20	DNF	11	7	11	9	111	Dillan Spence '27 [1-2] Tibet Kilic '24 [3-7] Claire Lee '26 [1-2] Dillan Spence '27 [3-7]
	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	9	14	17	28	26	20	5	119	Bosco Zhang '25 Lucca Jacobs '27
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	18	17	25	22	9	19	14	124	Julia Musial '26 Lada Nosar '26
	Archbishop Riordan	Crusaders	13	21	15	24	13	13	30	129	Eva Bennett '25 Sophie Bucker '24
	Blue and Gold	Varsity	22	25	11	18	14	24	16	130	Joaquin Jimenez '27 Robert Mccloskey '28
	Bishop's School	Knights	30	27	12	16	27	6	17	135	Cameron Rosso '27 Maia Brunner '26
	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	29	11	23	26	23	9	20	141	Stella Ward Turko '27 [1-7] Victoria Krauss '27 [1-3, 7] Zoe Bruce '26 [4-6]
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	23	28	27	19	16	12	24	149	Nola Jesenko '26 Wilder Harlow '27
	Coronado Islanders	Islanders	12	22	16	21	24	28	27	150	Wyatt Riebe '24 [1-2, 5-6] Daniel Alekseyeva '24 [3-4, 7] Garret Shamaker '26 [1-2, 5-6] Connor Arlt '25 [3-4, 7]
	Miramonte High School	Matadors	11	18	19	20	28	30	26	152	Giulia Delling '26 Zahra Alexander '24
	Pacific Grove High School	Breakers	14	23	9	BKD	DNF	DNF	28	161	Edward Shelton '27 Milo Bingham '27
	Campolindo High School	Cougars	26	29	22	23	20	26	23	169	Kaivo Kadai '25 Jenna Englehart '24
	SOTA	SOTA	DNF	19	DNF	29	25	25	11	173
	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	27	24	28	25	29	27	25	185	Luke Probst '26 Reuben Butt '27
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	24	30	29	27	30	29	29	198	Abbigal Starkey '25 [1-7] Lila Rodet '27 [1-2] Emilio Bottrell-Rogers '27 [3-7]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	35	35	37	37	39	39	41
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	36	36	38	38	40	40	42
	Campolindo High School Cougars	39	39	41	41	43	43	45
	Carmel High School Padres	40	40	42	42	44	44	46
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	41	41	43	43	45	45	47
	Coronado Islanders Islanders	42	42	44	44	46	46	48
	Design Tech High School Dragons	43	43	45	45	47	47	49
	Dos Pueblos Chargers	44	44	46	46	48	48	50
	Blue and Gold Varsity	38	38	40	40	42	42	44
	Henry M. Gunn High School Titans	46	46	48	48	50	50	52
	Harvard-Westlake Varsity	45	45	47	47	49	49	51
	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	47	47	49	49	51	51	53
	Loyola High School (CA) Cubs	48	48	50	50	52	52	54
	Marin Catholic Wildcats	49	49	51	51	53	53	55
	Miramonte High School Matadors	50	50	52	52	54	54	56
	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	51	51	53	53	55	55	57
	Pacific Palisades Charter High School Pacific Palisades Ch	52	52	54	54	56	56	58
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	53	53	55	55	57	57	59
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	54	54	56	56	58	58	60
	San Domenico High School Panthers	56	56	58	58	60	60	62
	San Pedro High School Pirates	57	57	59	59	61	61	63
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons	58	58	60	60	62	62	64
	SOTA SOTA	55	55	57	57	59	59	61
	South High School Spartans	59	59	61	61	63	63	34
	St. John Bosco High School St. John Bosco	60	60	62	62	64	64	35
	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	61	61	63	63	34	34	36
	Stevenson School Pirates 1	62	62	64	64	35	35	37
	Stevenson School Pirates 2	63	63	34	34	36	36	38
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	64	64	35	35	37	37	39
	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	34	34	36	36	38	38	40
	Bishop's School Knights	37	37	39	39	41	41	43

Division B

	Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	36	36	38	38	40	40	42
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	37	37	39	39	41	41	43
	Campolindo High School Cougars	40	40	42	42	44	44	46
	Carmel High School Padres	41	41	43	43	45	45	47
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	42	42	44	44	46	46	48
	Coronado Islanders Islanders	43	43	45	45	47	47	49
	Design Tech High School Dragons	44	44	46	46	48	48	50
	Dos Pueblos Chargers	45	45	47	47	49	49	51
	Blue and Gold Varsity	39	39	41	41	43	43	45
	Henry M. Gunn High School Titans	47	47	49	49	51	51	53
	Harvard-Westlake Varsity	46	46	48	48	50	50	52
	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	48	48	50	50	52	52	54
	Loyola High School (CA) Cubs	49	49	51	51	53	53	55
	Marin Catholic Wildcats	50	50	52	52	54	54	56
	Miramonte High School Matadors	51	51	53	53	55	55	57
	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	52	52	54	54	56	56	58
	Pacific Palisades Charter High School Pacific Palisades Ch	53	53	55	55	57	57	59
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	54	54	56	56	58	58	60
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	55	55	57	57	59	59	61
	San Domenico High School Panthers	57	57	59	59	61	61	63
	San Pedro High School Pirates	58	58	60	60	62	62	64
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons	59	59	61	61	63	63	34
	SOTA SOTA	56	56	58	58	60	60	62
	South High School Spartans	60	60	62	62	64	64	35
	St. John Bosco High School St. John Bosco	61	61	63	63	34	34	36
	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	62	62	64	64	35	35	37
	Stevenson School Pirates 1	63	63	34	34	36	36	38
	Stevenson School Pirates 2	64	64	35	35	37	37	39
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	34	34	36	36	38	38	40
	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	35	35	37	37	39	39	41
	Bishop's School Knights	38	38	40	40	42	42	44

	School / Team	Skipper	Crew
	Archbishop Riordan	Nolan Balocki '27 [1-7]	Kaia Burris '27 [1-4] Elizabeth Walsh '26 [5-6] Paige Walsh '27 [7]
	Crusaders	Eva Bennett '25	Sophie Bucker '24
	Berkeley High School	Cato Escamilla Geisler '23 [1-7]	Emilio Bottrell-Rogers '27 [1-2] Lila Rodet '27 [3-7]
	Yellowjackets	Abbigal Starkey '25 [1-7]	Lila Rodet '27 [1-2] Emilio Bottrell-Rogers '27 [3-7]
	Bishop's School	Celeste Oder '26	Sophie Brunner '26
	Knights	Cameron Rosso '27	Maia Brunner '26
	Blue and Gold	Sam Suddath '26	Hanah Yin '26
	Varsity	Joaquin Jimenez '27	Robert Mccloskey '28
	Campolindo High School	Liam Hearn '24	Kieran Whittome '27
	Cougars	Kaivo Kadai '25	Jenna Englehart '24
	Carmel High School	Lyric Gomez '28	Rosemary Savukinas (Monterey High) '28
	Padres	June Emerson '28	Samuel Weaver '26
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Ryan Tonkovich '26	Natalie Tonkovich '24
	Cubs	Mila Kane '25	Sebastian Gebler '27
	Coronado Islanders	Trey Gregory '26	William Bosworth '27
	Islanders	Wyatt Riebe '24 [1-2, 5-6] Daniel Alekseyeva '24 [3-4, 7]	Garret Shamaker '26 [1-2, 5-6] Connor Arlt '25 [3-4, 7]
	Design Tech High School	Will Kizer '25 [1-7]	Sebastian Lin '26 [1-2, 5-7] Sam Cheng '25 [3-4]
	Dragons	Skye Crawford '25 [1-7]	John Nix '25 [1-2, 5-7] Lorelai Hartman '25 [3-4]
	Dos Pueblos	Porter Murray '26	Leo Korman '26
	Chargers	Quincy Barnwood '26	Henry Janka '26
	Harvard-Westlake	Matthew Commons '25	Helena Salas '25
	Varsity	Sean Ozalpasan '25	Mira Goldman '27
	Henry M. Gunn High School	Mark Novak '28 [1-7]	Tomer Polak '26 [1-4, 7] Jaiden Jacobs '24 [5-6]
	Titans	Bosco Zhang '25	Lucca Jacobs '27
	Loyola High School (CA)	Luke Ondrey '25 [1-7]	Gus Drynan '27 [1-3, 5-7] Giovanni Valencia '24 [4]
	Cubs	Carsten Zieger '24 [1-7]	Giovanni Valencia '24 [1-3, 5-7] Jonas Stroh '24 [4]
	Marin Catholic	Leo Robillard '25 [1-7]	Stella Ward Turko '27 [1-2] Sean Chia '26 [3-4] Amelia Werstler '26 [5-6] Ben Brooks '24 [7]
	Wildcats	Stella Ward Turko '27 [1-7]	Victoria Krauss '27 [1-3, 7] Zoe Bruce '26 [4-6]
	Miramonte High School	Austin Teodorovic '24	Ella Maas '31
	Matadors	Giulia Delling '26	Zahra Alexander '24
	Pacific Grove High School	Kieran Sherlock '25	James Archer '27
	Breakers	Edward Shelton '27	Milo Bingham '27
	Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Oliver '27	Catalina Brody '24
	Pacific Palisades Ch	Katelyn Chang '27	Lalo Miali '24
	Palos Verdes High School	Nic Messano '28	Gavin Steuerwald '24
	Sea Kings	Jason Chan '26 [1-7]	Westley Johnson '26 [1-2, 5-7] Tatianna Faragallah '27 [3-4]
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Dersen Eddowes '24	Jarret Meza-Torne '26
	Panthers	Julia Musial '26	Lada Nosar '26
	San Domenico High School	Merritt Sellers '26	Dylan Song '25
	Panthers	Seamus Crain '26 [1-7]	Willem Morrow '27 [1-2, 5] Xander Helming '26 [3-4, 6-7]
	San Pedro High School	Nicholas Parsnik '26	Gwen Hildebrand '25
	Pirates	Iliana Hernandez '27 [1-2] Kennedy Hildebrand '27 [3-7]	Niko Seiple '27 [1-2, 5-6] Bradley Uyematsu '25 [3-4, 7]
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Jessica Green '25	Elizabeth Nash '28
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Dragons	Olivia Corzine '28	Eric Panebianco '28
	South High School	Joaquin Desrochers '25	Aurora Pittman '25
	Spartans	Reese Lieser '25	Kayla Spalding '24
	St. John Bosco High School	Roman Galindo '25	Michael Beaird '25
	St. John Bosco	Samuel Mohinani '24	Kaya Gagnon '27
	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	Melina Ahrens '27	Ella Schwartz '27
	St Joseph Notre Dame	Luke Probst '26	Reuben Butt '27
	Stevenson School	Abbie Zhang '24 [1-7]	Patrick O'Hara '27 [1-2] Sadie Marinerstein '24 [3-7]
	Pirates 1	Patrick O'Hara '27 [1-2] Max Mccormick '24 [3-7]	Sadie Marinerstein '24 [1-2] Patrick O'Hara '27 [3-7]
	Stevenson School	Aaron Eagle '27 [1-7]	Dillan Spence '27 [1-2] Claire Lee '26 [3-7]
	Pirates 2	Dillan Spence '27 [1-2] Tibet Kilic '24 [3-7]	Claire Lee '26 [1-2] Dillan Spence '27 [3-7]
	Tamalpais High School	Jason Lester '24 [1-4] Bea Littler '27 [5-7]	Charles Winstead '24 [1-7]
	Red Tailed Hawks	Vaugn Neumann '27 [1-2] Evie Littler '25 [3-7]	Sean Chia '26 [1-2] Vaugn Neumann '27 [3-7]
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Gus Gossett '27	Jt Scott '28
	Breakers	Nola Jesenko '26	Wilder Harlow '27
	The International School of San Francisco	Lusia Foster '26	Charlotte Mcgeary '24
	Jaguars	Charlie Fine '25	Theo Li '25

Conditions — 02/24/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 58% · Pressure 1017.2 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.4 kn

avg · max 5.9 kn

Gusts to 14.4 kn

From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1017.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn · W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Alameda: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Alameda by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Alameda, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu