May 4 Tier Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Glenbrook North High School Glenbrook North High School Varsity 19 19
2 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 33 33
3 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 1 38 38
4 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 3 41 41
5 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 41 41
6 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 55 55
7 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 58 58
8 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 64 64
9 Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 68 68
10 DePaul College Prep DePaul College Prep Varsity 2 72 72
11 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Trailblazers 78 78
12 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 79 79
13 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 2 95 95
14 DePaul College Prep DePaul College Prep Varsity 1 113 113
15 Glenbrook South High School Glenbrook South High School Titans 116 116
16 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 118 118
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Glenbrook North High School Glenbrook North High School Varsity 1 1 4 3 2 4 2 2 19 Matthew Ward '27
Audrey Yen '26
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 2 2 1 1 12 3 8 4 33 Adler Lafayette '28
Ophelia Sheridan '28
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 1 14 8 2 4 1 1 1 7 38 Matt Spear '24
Emma Zhang '27
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 3 3 7 5 12 4 2 5 3 41 Juan Woodworth '26
Sophia Frazee '26
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 6 4 3 2 11 8 6 1 41 Frank Wildi '25
Gianna Scandariato '27
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 8 11 6 8 5 6 3 8 55 Bleu Strnad '26
Bryce Banach '27
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 5 5 12 6 7 5 9 9 58 Nolan Graham '28
Grey Payne '28
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 4 12 14 7 8 9 4 6 64 Liam Kipnis '27
Ty Nedoss '26
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 12 3 7 5 6 13 11 11 68 Frankie Ryba '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Cate Baldwin '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Sophia Castrejon '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Eva Castrejon '24 [3-4, 7-8]
DePaul College Prep DePaul College Prep Varsity 2 7 6 8 11 9 11 10 10 72 Becky Lechota '25
Clare Styslinger '25
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Trailblazers 10 10 10 9 3 7 14 15 78 Graham Marshall '25
Gavin Parsons '24
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 11 9 9 10 13 10 12 5 79 Lindsay Ye '27
Julianna Capretta '27
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 2 9 13 11 13 14 15 7 13 95 Joseph Hardman Novak '26
Ada Liew '26
DePaul College Prep DePaul College Prep Varsity 1 13 14 15 14 10 16 15 16 113 Charles Gallagher '25
David Hand '25
Glenbrook South High School Glenbrook South High School Titans 16 15 13 16 15 14 13 14 116 Morgan Gapp '27
Charlie Hintzman '27
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 15 16 16 15 16 12 16 12 118 Mira Dale '27
Gabriel Vegas '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Trailblazers11111111
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 122222222
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 233333333
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 344444444
DePaul College PrepDePaul College Prep Varsity 155555555
DePaul College PrepDePaul College Prep Varsity 266666666
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 177777777
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 288888888
Glenbrook North High SchoolGlenbrook North High School Varsity99999999
Glenbrook South High SchoolGlenbrook South High School Titans1010101010101010
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Romans1313131313131313
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 11515151515151515
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 21616161616161616
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 11717171717171717
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 21818181818181818
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSaint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack1919191919191919

Conditions — 05/04/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1012.6 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.5 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From SE (125°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1012.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.38 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →