NJISA 2024 TR Spring Series 5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 10 16 26
2 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 15 16 31
3 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 17 15 32
4 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 25 7 32
5 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 8 34 42
6 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 36 13 49
7 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 21 47 68
8 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 2 42 26 68
9 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 31 42 73
10 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 37 37 74
11 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 41 33 74
12 Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 48 29 77
13 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 3 37 50 87
14 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 51 55 106
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 1 4 2 1 8 Cole Buczkowski '27
Luke Pennisi '24
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 4 1 1 4 10 James Kopack '24
Caroline Felser '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 2 2 8 3 15 Christopher Small '26
Matthew Dupree '25
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 7 5 3 2 17 Turner Ryon '25 [1-4]
Belle Placa '25 [1-2]
No Show [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 5 3 5 8 21 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Daniel Stephan '24
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 10 6 4 5 25 Jude Ryon '27
No Show
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 8 7 9 7 31 Maryn Demand '27
Lilly Keenan '27
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 3 12 6 OCS 36 Lewis Forrest '25 [1-4]
Julien Wong '27 [1-2]
Keira Mooar '27 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 6 10 10 11 37 Matthew Moses '24
Seth Santos '27
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 3 9 8 11 9 37 Cameron Hart '27
Nicholas Fatigate '24
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 13 9 7 12 41 Liam Marcell '26
Scarlett Colman '26
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 2 11 13 12 6 42 Alex Dacosta '24
Julianna Walsh '24
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 12 14 BKD 10 48 Jack Schlenker '26
Ethan Law '25
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 14 11 13 13 51 Allison Beisel '24
Greta Senft '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 3 1 1 2 7 Gannon Botwinick '27
Ted Klopman '25
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 7 2 3 13 Dylan Pagonis '26
Joshua Portnoy '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 6 2 3 4 15 Belle Placa '25
Erin Little '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 2 4 4 6 16 Jules Buczkowski '26
Alton Deoliveria '26
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 4 6 5 1 16 Nicole Small '27
Gianna Deresz '27
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 2 5 3 9 9 26 Izzy Bornebusch '25
Samantha Goldberg '26
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 8 8 8 5 29 James Mccarthy '26
Leo Van Der Valk '26
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 10 5 6 12 33 Grace Ciak '26
Annabelle Arcuri '27
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 7 10 7 10 34 Kyle Lombardino '25
Donald Johnston '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 9 9 12 7 37 Christopher Quincannon '27
Aidan Kenney '26
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 12 11 11 8 42 Emily Bell '27
Chase Kalwinsky '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 11 12 13 11 47 Andrew Dinger '24
Daniel Kuzloski '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 3 13 14 10 13 50 Richard Mcgowan '25
Oliver Roske '27
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 14 13 14 14 55 Sophia Galiano '26
Evelyn Magee '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 12222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 23333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 34444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 45555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 16666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 27777
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 39999
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers10101010
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils11111111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 112121212
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 213131313
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians14141414
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 115151515
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 216161616

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 12222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 23333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 34444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 45555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 16666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 27777
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 39999
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers10101010
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils11111111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 112121212
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 213131313
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians14141414
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 115151515
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 216161616
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Christopher Small '26 Matthew Dupree '25
Colts 1 Jules Buczkowski '26 Alton Deoliveria '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Cole Buczkowski '27 Luke Pennisi '24
Colts 2 Kyle Lombardino '25 Donald Johnston '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Mitchell Hnatt '24 Daniel Stephan '24
Colts 3 Andrew Dinger '24 Daniel Kuzloski '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Matthew Moses '24 Seth Santos '27
Colts 4 Christopher Quincannon '27 Aidan Kenney '26
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School James Kopack '24 Caroline Felser '24
Griffins 1 Nicole Small '27 Gianna Deresz '27
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Liam Marcell '26 Scarlett Colman '26
Griffins 2 Grace Ciak '26 Annabelle Arcuri '27
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Cameron Hart '27 Nicholas Fatigate '24
Griffins 3 Richard Mcgowan '25 Oliver Roske '27
Ranney School Ranney School Lewis Forrest '25 [1-4] Julien Wong '27 [1-2]
Keira Mooar '27 [3-4]
Panthers Dylan Pagonis '26 Joshua Portnoy '26
Ridge High School Ridge High School Jack Schlenker '26 Ethan Law '25
Red Devils James Mccarthy '26 Leo Van Der Valk '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Turner Ryon '25 [1-4] Belle Placa '25 [1-2]
No Show [3-4]
Rams 1 Belle Placa '25 Erin Little '24
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Jude Ryon '27 No Show
Rams 2 Gannon Botwinick '27 Ted Klopman '25
Toms River South Toms River South Maryn Demand '27 Lilly Keenan '27
Indians Emily Bell '27 Chase Kalwinsky '26
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Allison Beisel '24 Greta Senft '24
Monarchs 1 Sophia Galiano '26 Evelyn Magee '26
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Alex Dacosta '24 Julianna Walsh '24
Monarchs 2 Izzy Bornebusch '25 Samantha Goldberg '26

Conditions — 05/01/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1013.5 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From ESE (105°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1013.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Donovan Catholic: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.17 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Donovan Catholic by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Donovan Catholic, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →