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NYISA-NW Fleet Race Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 30 29 59
2 West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 1 31 30 61
3 West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 30 31 61
4 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 38 33 71
5 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 45 43 88
6 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 36 58 94
7 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 50 48 98
8 Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Varsity 64 56 120
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 4 8 5 2 1 5 1 3 1 30 Daniel Tarlowski '25
Matt Baker '26
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 6 4 1 3 2 2 5 1 6 30 Jack Riley '25
Ian Bren '25
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 1 3 2 7 4 5 4 2 2 2 31 Isaac Aymerich '26
Genevieve Heiermann '26
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 3 4 5 6 1 7 5 4 36 Josh Elliott '24
Matthew Hudi '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 5 2 1 7 8 4 6 3 38 Philipp Meyer '24
Nolan Lefler '25
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 7 1 3 6 3 3 8 7 7 45 Mason Howell '24
Tiffany Jiang '24
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 8 7 6 7 4 6 3 4 5 50 Natalie Dunlap '24
Isabella Fukushima '24
Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Varsity 5 6 8 8 8 7 6 8 8 64 Isabella Donovan '27
Clara Riley '29
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 DNS 1 1 DSQ 1 4 1 2 29 Matthew Murad '26
Charlie Marynowski '26
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 1 3 3 7 3 4 2 3 2 3 30 Juliana Lanz '26
Cooper Petzing '26
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 2 4 3 2 1 7 1 6 5 31 Chase Werner '26
Violet Richter '27
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 8 2 2 4 2 6 5 3 1 33 Matt Lefler '24
Aiden Dearman '26
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 7 6 6 5 3 4 2 4 6 43 Olive Donaghy '27
Omunique Gaddie '29
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 4 1 4 8 6 5 6 5 DNS 48 No Show
No Show
Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Varsity 6 5 5 6 5 8 8 DNF 4 56 Josie Riley '27
Erin Mills '24
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 5 7 8 7 7 3 7 7 7 58 Lucio Moscati '27
Daniel Piazza '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks181816161414121218
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders171715151313111117
Nardin AcademyNardin Academy Varsity161614141212181816
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings151513131111171715
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans141412121818161614
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders131311111717151513
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles 1121218181616141412
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles 2111117171515131311

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks171715151313111117
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders161614141212181816
Nardin AcademyNardin Academy Varsity151513131111171715
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings141412121818161614
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans131311111717151513
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders121218181616141412
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles 1111117171515131311
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles 2181816161414121218

Conditions — 04/20/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1016.3 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 48°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.4 kn
avg  ·  max 15.9 kn
Gusts to 32.1 kn
From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1016.3 hPa Rain0.08 in Snow0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Joseph's Collegi: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.31)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.20
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.49 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.31 means a rating gap counts about 27% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Joseph's Collegi by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Joseph's Collegi, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →