MDISA St. Marys Ryken Tier 3 Fleet

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 14 10 24
2 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 14 14 28
3 Notre Dame Preparatory School Notre Dame Preparatory School Blazers 12 19 31
4 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 22 10 32
5 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 13 27 40
6 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 20 24 44
7 Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield Dons 23 25 48
8 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 28 27 55
9 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 34 24 58
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Notre Dame Preparatory School Notre Dame Preparatory School Blazers 2 1 6 3 12 Sophia Hammond '26
Eloise Graf '26
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 4 3 1 5 13 Adam Kurpiewski '27
Zachary Zupkusky '27
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 4 3 6 14 Nicholas Kitts '25
Griffin Pitcher '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 3 2 2 7 14 Skyler Krinetz '25
Caleb Carrasco '28
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 9 5 5 1 20 Garrett Szymendera '28
Owen Schlosser '27
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 6 6 8 2 22 Logan Pavis '26
Leo Xiang '25
Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield Dons 5 7 7 4 23 Sebastian Haber '27
Eli Eib '26
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 8 8 4 8 28 Bryeden Rapp '27
Bailey Geisz '27
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 7 9 9 9 34 Layken Phang '29
Joseph Dibonaventuro '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 1 1 4 4 10 Ryan Stebbins '28
Ella Chasse '27
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 3 5 1 1 10 Michael Groat '27
Lindsey Jahn '26
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 8 2 2 2 14 Ian Murphy '29
William Dennis '29
Notre Dame Preparatory School Notre Dame Preparatory School Blazers 7 6 3 3 19 Claire Rowland '26
Gina Varacalle-Goetz '27
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 4 4 9 7 24 Annabelle Yurko '29
Ryan Deibler '28
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 9 3 7 5 24 Gabriel Roberts '27
Kaden Cotugno '27
Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield Dons 5 7 5 8 25 Devin De La Paz '25 [1-2]
Eli Eib '26 [3-4]
Katy Stansbury '27 [1-2]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 2 8 8 9 27 Kendall Tharp '26
Alex Dusterwald '27
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 6 9 6 6 27 Dylan Thomas '26
John Decker '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers1133
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins2244
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets3355
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders4466
Loyola BlakefieldLoyola Blakefield Dons5577
Notre Dame Preparatory SchoolNotre Dame Preparatory School Blazers6688
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers771010
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 18811
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 2101022

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2244
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins3355
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets4466
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders5577
Loyola BlakefieldLoyola Blakefield Dons6688
Notre Dame Preparatory SchoolNotre Dame Preparatory School Blazers771010
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers8811
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 1101022
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 21133

Conditions — 05/18/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 93%  ·  Pressure 1014.6 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 12.8 kn
From E (101°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1014.6 hPa Rain0.47 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Marys Ryken: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.19 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.30 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Marys Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at St. Marys Ryken: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →