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Windy Day Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB Green 6 6
2 Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ 19 19
3 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Blue 22 22
4 Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MIXED MUDJkins 34 34
5 Troy High School Troy High School Colts 34 34
6 Troy High School Troy High School Red 34 34
7 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Red 43 43
8 Avondale High School Avondale High School Mixed Red 47 47
9 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue MIXED 56 56
10 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Gold 61 61
11 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Black 65 65
12 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon 73 73
13 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples 80 80
14 Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange 81 81
15 Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Detroit MIXED 83 83
16 Troy High School Troy High School Troy 85 85
17 Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Red 96 96
18 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue 107 107
19 Troy High School Troy High School White 114 114
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB Green 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Vinny Paliga '24
Liam Gilin '25
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ 2 2 3 7 2 3 19 Gabe Morreale '24
Quinn Elliott '26
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Blue 5 4 4 2 5 2 22 Andrew Wiand '25
Krish Reddy '26
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MIXED MUDJkins 4 8 6 4 6 6 34 Charlie Walton '25
Marko Nedeljkovic '24
Troy High School Troy High School Colts 7 6 2 3 8 8 34 Nicole Torkos '25
Clara Le Moal '24
Troy High School Troy High School Red 10 5 5 5 4 5 34 Rodrigo Flores '24
Jacob Ritter '24
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Red 3 9 9 12 3 7 43 Dutch Goodman '29
Aarush Kapur '25
Avondale High School Avondale High School Mixed Red 9 10 8 6 10 4 47 Brigitte Chan '24
Luc Messner '27
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue MIXED 8 3 17 8 7 13 56 Erin Degrazia '27
Sydney Rosenberg '26
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Gold 6 7 7 11 13 17 61 Miles Kohn '25
Ashwin Kesliker '26
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Black 11 11 11 9 9 14 65 Quinn Rolands '24
Andew Riordan '24
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon 12 14 10 10 15 12 73 Arda Sarioglu '27
Levi Citron '26
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples 18 13 13 15 11 10 80 Nate Bacheller '24
Bryan Lu '25
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange 13 16 15 14 12 11 81 Isabella Elzon '27
Nicholas Holmes '24
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Detroit MIXED 14 12 14 13 14 16 83 Charlie Weikel '26
Henry Mcbrien '26
Troy High School Troy High School Troy 15 15 12 17 17 9 85 Teddy Mayotte '25
Vini Leao '25
Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Red 16 17 16 16 16 15 96 James Xiao '26
Robin Seo '25
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue 17 18 18 18 18 18 107 Sophia Yancey '27
Angelina Abdulnour '27
Troy High School Troy High School White 19 19 19 19 19 19 114 Julia Triculescu '26
Lucia Sharp '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Avondale High SchoolAvondale High School Mixed Red222222222222
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples161616161616
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon999999
Bloomfield Hills High SchoolBloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange212121212121
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Black282828282828
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue333333
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue MIXED252525252525
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Blue292929292929
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Gold131313131313
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED Red111111111111
Mercy/University of Detroit JesuitMercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Detroit MIXED666666
Mercy/University of Detroit JesuitMercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MIXED MUDJkins232323232323
Mercy/University of Detroit JesuitMercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ191919191919
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Colts242424242424
Troy High SchoolTroy High School MIXED Red444444
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Red262626262626
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Troy121212121212
Troy High SchoolTroy High School White100100100100100100
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School WB Green303030303030

Conditions — 05/13/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1008.4 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.3 kn
avg  ·  max 13.5 kn
Gusts to 28.0 kn
From SW (224°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1008.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Detroit Country Day: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.28 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Detroit Country Day, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →