| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Fairfield Prep | Jesuits | 6–0 |
| 1 |  |
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | 6–0 |
| 3 |  |
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | 6–1 |
| 4 |  |
Brunswick School | Bruins | 5–2 |
| 5 |  |
Greenwich Academy | Gator | 4–2 |
| 6 |  |
Darien High School | Blue Wave | 3–3 |
| 6 |  |
Fairfield Ludlowe High School | Falcons | 3–3 |
| 8 |  |
Greenwich Country Day School | Tigers | 3–4 |
| 9 |  |
Staples High School | Wreckers | 2–4 |
| 10 |  |
Sacred Heart Greenwich | Varsity | 0–6 |
| 10 |  |
Wilton High School | Warriors | 0–6 |
| 12 |  |
Weston High School | Trojans | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,835 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 2 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.096 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Greens Farms Academy Dragons | 1 | 5.34 school +0.10 | Emmet Ennico / Caroline Collins 1.59 Glen Foster / Alec Crum 1.90 Avery Beck / Hayes Cooper 1.75 | 91% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.2 |
| 8 | Greenwich Country Day School Tigers | 2 | 2.40 school +0.19 | Owen Chickering / Jack Scully 0.63 Grant Zucconi / Harrison Thompson Mary Chickering / Chris L'Helias | 9% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Greens Farms Academy | 5.34 | 8.34 | 2–0 | 1.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 8 | Greenwich Country Day School | 2.40 | -0.60 | 0–2 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Greens Farms Academy | Greenwich Country Day School | 91% | |
| 2 | 2 | Greens Farms Academy | Greenwich Country Day School | 90% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Blue Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Jesuits | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Gator | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wreckers | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Tigers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-3-6 |
| 19 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wreckers | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gator | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Jesuits | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Bruins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Gator | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Wreckers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Blue Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Jesuits | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Gator | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wreckers | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wreckers | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gator | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Jesuits | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Gator | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Wreckers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cardinals | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Blue Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Jesuits | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Jesuits | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Falcons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-3-6 |
| 34 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | Avery Beck '27 Emmet Ennico '25 Glen Foster '26 |
Hayes Cooper '27 Caroline Collins '26 Alec Crum '27 |
|
Greenwich Country Day School | Tigers | Grant Zucconi '28 Mary Chickering '27 Owen Chickering '25 |
Harrison Thompson '26 Chris L'Helias '26 Jack Scully '26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
