| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 3–1 |
| 2 |  |
Southern Regional High School | Rams | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,806 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 6 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.335 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | 1 | 6.40 school +0.18, home +0.19 | Jules Buczkowski / Seth Santos 1.99 Cole Buczkowski / Matthew Dupree 2.35 Patrick Kennedy / Donald Johnston | 71% | 3–1 (75%) | +0.2 |
| 2 | Southern Regional High School Rams | 2 | 6.28 | Turner Ryon / Belle Placa Gannon Botwinick / Ella Linkewich Jude Ryon / Noah Tallman | 67% | 3–1 (75%) | +0.3 |
| 3 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 3 | 3.83 school −0.08 | Liam Marcell / Grace Torpey 1.88 Cameron Hart / Scarlett Colman 0–2 Grace Ciak / Annabelle Arcuri 0.69 0–2 Cameron Hart / Anna Hnatt 0–2 Julianna Brooksbank / Annabelle Arcuri 0–2 | 12% | 0–4 (0%) | −0.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Southern Regional High School | 6.28 | 6.88 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.60 | 0.1 | 60% |
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy | 6.40 | 6.72 | 3–1 | 2.8 | +0.32 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 3 | Donovan Catholic High School | 3.83 | 0.83 | 0–4 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jude Ryon | Southern Regional High School | 2.14 | 2.74 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.60 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Cole Buczkowski | Christian Brothers Academy | 2.35 | 2.67 | 3–1 | 2.8 | +0.32 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Patrick Kennedy | Christian Brothers Academy | 1.59 | 1.91 | 3–1 | 2.8 | +0.32 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Cameron Hart | Donovan Catholic High School | 1.33 | -1.67 | 0–4 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Griffins | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Colts | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 4 | |
Colts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Colts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | Cole Buczkowski '27 Jules Buczkowski '26 Patrick Kennedy '28 |
Matthew Dupree '25 Seth Santos '27 Donald Johnston '25 |
|
Southern Regional High School | Rams | Gannon Botwinick '27 Jude Ryon '27 Turner Ryon '25 |
Ella Linkewich '28 Noah Tallman '25 Belle Placa '25 |
|
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | Cameron Hart '27 Grace Ciak '26 Julianna Brooksbank '28 Liam Marcell '26 |
Scarlett Colman '26 Anna Hnatt '28 Annabelle Arcuri '27 Grace Torpey '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
