Novi '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.82 (fleet 2.96) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–4 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 7–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 12–4 against 13.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-06 | Lake St. Clair Classic Fall Team Race | skipper | 1.95 | -0.49 | 5–4 | 7.8 | −2.44 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 2019-05-18 | Lake St. Clair Classic Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.87 | 4.87 | 7–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| Leukemia Cup | Crew | B | 4 | 9.2 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Lauren Carron |  Grosse Pointe South High School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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